集对分析径向基函数神经网络预测模型

将集对分析与径向基函数神经网络结合,提出了集对分析径向基函数神经网络预测模型。模型思路是将研究对象t-1时和t时的影响因子集构造为集对并计算联系度,由联系度的同一度、差异度、对立度及研究对象t-1时的值为输入,研究对象t时的值为输出,构建径向基函数神经网络。以年径流预测为例研究表明,模型结构清晰、步骤明确、预测精度较高,为集对分析应用于水文预测提供了新思路。     

Managing expert-information uncertainties for assessing collapse susceptibility of abandoned underground structures

Assessing the collapse susceptibility of abandoned cavities at a regional scale is associated with large uncertainties that are mainly related to the very nature of the phenomena, but also to the difficulty in collecting exhaustive information at such a scale on often “forgotten” structures. In this context, the expert's role is essential, because he is able to synthesize the information resulting from the inventory and from the commonly imprecise, if not vague, criteria on the basis of his experience and his knowledge of the geological, historical, economic regional context.In this article, we propose mathematical tools for representing and processing this information in order to give flexibility to this step and manage the uncertainty inherent in the expert's information. The first tool, based on the weight of evidence theory, is for managing the uncertainty due to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of the data, whereas the second tool, based on the fuzzy set theory, is for managing the imprecision and incompleteness of available data, which hinder the definition of the class boundaries of the quantitative decision criteria. Based on an appropriate representation of the uncertainty sources (related to the input data and to the expert diagnostic), we then propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty in the final output of the collapse susceptibility assessment and provides a confidence indicator useful within the decision-making process. The proposed methodology is applied to the Arras territory in the North of France, where abandoned chalk pits (dating back to the Roman ages) and war saps located in the vicinity of the First World War front lines (i.e. covered trenches), raise both difficulties for urban planning.     

基于集对分析的广义水环境承载能力评价

通过对水环境系统的分析,提出了广义水环境承载能力的定义及相应评价指标体系;通过改进熵值赋权方法,完善了广义水环境承载能力的集对分析模型;在深入分析广东省水环境特点的基础上,构建了广东省水环境承载能力评价指标体系,并采用基于改进熵值法赋权的集对分析模型,综合评价了3个子系统和区域水环境承载能力;在综合评价的基础上,提出了改善研究区域水环境承载能力的建议。     

基于粗糙集理论与遗传规划的地表下沉系数预测研究

利用粗糙集理论处理大数据量.消除冗余信息等方面的优势,计算出下沉系数各影响因素的属性重要性,约简了遗传规划训练样本集,建立了基于粗糙集和遗传规划的地表下沉系数预测模型。并与BP神经网络法预测结果进行了对比,结果表明,本模型具有精度高,收敛速度快等特点,将其应用到地表下沉系数预测中是可行的。     

百色双套自动气象站雷击故障维修的方法

通过对百色双套自动气象站遇到历史罕见的强雷暴袭击出现故障维修,摸索出了检修双套新型自动站的通信、电源供应、主机HY3000、接口RS232、分采仪器等模块的方法,供同行借鉴.     

低纬高原雹云识别物元可拓模型及效果检验

雹云识别是一个多参数的模式识别问题,应用物元可拓思想将单参数雹云识别的不相容性转化为相容性问题。在与成都地区雹云识别的物元可拓模型进行对比后,根据低纬高原地形及气候特点,通过适当增加参数,构造完成低纬高原雹云识别的物元可拓模型,以此进行雹云识别,准确率达86％以上。     

1995—2010年静止卫星云量数据检验和评价

对利用FY2和GMS静止气象卫星建立的东亚地区气候数据集(EAGSCDR FY2 and GMS Geostationary Satellite Climate Data Record over East Asia)进行了检验和评估,使用的检验源数据包括中国地面气候资料与国际卫星云气候计划ISCCP D2月平均云量数据集.对由上述3种不同观测手段得到的多年平均总云量的空间分布特征分析结果表明:3种资料的总云量分布形势有较好的一致性,但是在40°N以北地区,ISCCP和EAGSCDR得到的总云量在量值上高于地面观测值.用地面观测资料检验华南及长江流域EAGSCDR的云检测产品的结果表明,总的准确率为82.10％,总漏判率6.85％,总误判率为11.05％,秋冬季节准确率偏低.EAGSCDR与ISCCP云量都是由卫星资料处理得到的,二者差异主要来自算法的不同,检验结果表明,EAGSCDR中的云量产品精度优于ISCCP云量,并且其时间分辨率可达到1 h,空间分辨率达到5 km,由此可见,EAGSCDR的云产品比ISCCP云产品更有优势.     

Estimation of parameters in a split functional model of geodetic observations (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>split</Subscript> estimation)

The paper presents a method of estimating parameters in two competitive functional models. The models considered here are concerned with the same observation set and are based on the assumption that an observation may result from a realization of either of two different random variables. These variables differ from one another at least in the main characteristic (for example, outliers can be realizations of one variable). A quantity that describes the opportunity of identifying a single observation with one random variable is assumed to be known. That quantity, called the elementary split potential, is strictly referred to the amount of information that an observation can provide about two competitive assumptions concerning the observation distribution. Parameter assessments that maximize the global elementary split potential (concerning all observations), are called M _split estimators. A generalization of M _split estimation presented in the paper refers to the theoretical foundation of M-estimation. An erratum to this article can be found at     

沙漠地区无人机影像连接点提取

提出了一种纹理自适应的影像连接点提取方法,有针对性地解决沙漠地区无人机影像对比度低、相似性强、纹理信息不均衡,经常会造成连接点过少甚至提取、匹配失败的突出问题。该方法利用影像金字塔进行粗匹配,建立影像之间近似单应变换关系;通过对原始影像分块计算灰度共生矩阵的熵来评估影像纹理指标,并据此实现特征点的自适应提取与匹配。实验表明,该方法能够得到数量较多、分布均匀、可靠性强的同名点。     

基于中性集对北川羌族自治县新城人工建设用地的识别

人工建设用地(包括建筑物、道路、广场等社会服务设施)的识别一直是用来监测地区发展速度的一个有效途径。针对目前在人工建设用地识别领域中对在建建筑物的忽视问题,利用中性集、均值漂移以及绿度因子等概念将在建建设用地信息进行增强,进而将其成功识别出来。实验证明,该方法对高分辨率遥感影像的人工建设用地识别是可行的。通过分析2009—2013年期间北川新城的建设工地面积及分布的变化情况可以看出,北川新城在2010—2013年期间完工面积占2009—2010年新建工程总面积的98.17%,在北川新城拓展区又新建0.6 km2的工程,施工迅速,为受灾居民提供了良好的居住和生活保障。