地壳形变与强震地点预测问题与认识

通过对昆仑山口西8.1级地震和汶川8.0级地震震前GPS资料所反映的孕震特征的分析, 对地壳形变资料应用于孕震机理和地震预测研究中在最近几十年的主要进展进行了回顾分析, 并对比了中外学者针对上述问题科学思路的异同。 在此基础上, 对走滑型和倾滑型地震断层带区域孕震形变场特征进行分析, 强调孕震过程地壳形变的认识模式需要从孕震断层拓展到区域甚至更大区域, 并需从多尺度地壳形变时空过程来认识强震孕震形变动态特征, 进而获取强震预测判据。     

青海哈秀地区混杂岩主要特征及成因研究

目前有关蛇绿岩的定义、分类和成因等问题仍存在很大的争议,西金乌兰-金沙江缝合带作为青藏高原北部羌塘地区一条重要的板块碰撞带,在此缝合带西段已发现多处蛇绿混杂岩分布,哈秀地区亦位于缝合带的西段,但在哈秀地区是否存在蛇绿混杂岩,研究者存在不同认识。在前人研究成果和野外调查的基础上,对哈秀地区的混杂岩从岩石学、古生物学、地球化学特征及同位素年代学等方面进行了总结,分析认为哈秀地区无明显蛇绿混杂岩的特征,而是具有岛弧型火山岩的特征,其形成于晚二叠世大陆边缘裂谷环境中板块俯冲的产物,野外调查也未发现连续的成生地层剖面,因此哈秀地区应为构造混杂岩带。     

Curvature analysis as a tool for subsidence-related risk zones identification in the city of Tuzla (BiH)

Shallow Miocene salt deposits located below the city of Tuzla (BiH) have been exploited during the last 60 years by means of wells extracting salt-saturated groundwater brines. The massive extraction activities have led to severe subsidence accommodated by collapse and strain localization. Surface topography and geomorphology have been influenced and modified by several faults and fractures.A series of sequential topographical survey data collected during the last 50 years have been used to obtain the total subsidence envelope surface. In order to analyze the salt dissolution-related morphological development of the Tuzla topography and to identify the location of faults and fractures in the deformed area, we applied curvature analysis to the subsidence surface by means of two different analytical methods: the directional, two-dimensional curvature and the analytic Gaussian curvature. The comparison of the curvature maps with those of surface fractures visible in the area shows a good spatial agreement between the directional curvature and fracture intensity, whereas the subsurface normal faults are more evident in the Gaussian curvature maps.     

曲线坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型研究

本文建立了顾及地球扁率和局部切标架随点变化特性的椭球坐标系下的刚体运动模型和块体运动与应变模型,以及球坐标系下顾及局部切标架随点变化特性的严密的块体运动与应变模型,分析了球坐标系下块体运动与应变模型及椭球坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型间的差异;通过计算具体讨论了地球扁率和曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对欧拉矢量与应变张量的影响.结果表明：地球扁率对刚体欧拉矢量和应变参数的影响甚小,具体计算时可以不予考虑,但曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对两者的影响较大,在建模过程中需要顾及,常用的Savage模型需要修正.     

The Dynamic Characteristics of Strain Fields and Crustal Movement before the Wenchuan Earthquake （ Ms = 8.0）

In this paper, we analyze the crustal movements, strain field changes and large scale dynamic characteristics of horizontal deformation before the Wenchuan earthquake (M_S=8.0) using GPS data obtained from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. The following issues are discussed. First, the strain fields of the Longmenshan fault zone located at the epicenter show slow accumulation, because of the tectonic dynamics process subjected to the eastward movement of the Bayan Har block. Second, the different movements between the Longmenshan fault and South China block are smaller than the errors of GPS observation. Third, the high value of compressive strain (2004～2007) is located at the epicenter, which shows that the local squeezing action is stronger than before. Fourth, the data from GPS reference stations in the Chinese Mainland show that crustal shortening is faster than before in the north-eastern direction, which is part of the background of the local tectonic dynamics increase in the Longmenshan fault zone.     

海原台四分量钻孔应变观测的相对标定及资料应用

宁夏海原台四分量钻孔应变观测的相对标定结果显示,标定后分量1、分量3之和与分量2、分量4之和的资料相关性显著增强,标准差明显减小,更加满足四分量应变仪的校核条件,表明该钻孔应变观测资料是可靠的。将各分量应变资料去趋势,计算出面应变1+3和2+4、差应变1-3和2-4,对面应变、差应变资料和相对标定系数在2008年4月6日固原3.8级、5月12日汶川8.0级、10月3日固原4.0级和11月24日固原3.8级地震前的异常变化进行了分析探讨。结果显示,钻孔应变观测的相对标定及资料应用有助于地震前兆异常的判定识别。     

岩石非弹性应变恢复(ASR)地应力测试方法中柔度研究进展评述

本文通过分析国内外非弹性应变恢复(ASR)法地应力测量研究现状,并对ASR法中重要的柔度参数作了系统整理,认为该测量方法在理论上逐渐趋于成熟,在技术应用上有广阔的前景,但该地应力测量原理中,针对温度、应力环境(作用应力)对ASR岩石柔度影响的研究相对较少,还存在一些缺陷,为此提出了该地应力测试方法有待改进或补充的建议,为完善ASR法地应力测量原理指明了研究方向,对今后ASR地应力测量技术的完善和发展具有重要的意义。     

探讨地震宏观破坏场分布的影响因素

提出震后根据仪器定位的微观震中和断层构造的关系快速确定可能的宏观震中位置,并依此使用烈度经验分布模型来进行震害快速评估。这将提高直接用微观震中位置进行震害快速评估方法的精度。通过对全国133个主要地震的微观震中与宏观震中偏离量进行统计可知。偏离量在35km范围内的占88％,其余基本都在75km范围内。这样就给出了判定宏观震中的重点区域和分析区域。详细分析南北地震带66个震例及其与断层空间分布特征的关系。以及震源机制解结果后发现,影响宏观震中偏离的因素除仪器定位本身的误差外,主要还有断层展布方向、活动规模、断层相互交接特征及震级大小等。通过对这些影响因素的分类处理分析,建立了震后室内快速判定可能的宏观震中位置的原则和步骤。以该方法为基础,通过建立包含有关因素的全国断层数据库,即可在实际的震害快速评估中得以应用。     

Significant high number commensurabilities in the main lunar problem II: The occurrence of Saros-like near periodicities

The effect of changes in the Moon's semimajor axis and the Earth's orbital eccentricity on the occurrence of Saros-like cycles is examined. The Earth-Moon-Sun dynamical system exhibits such cycles for only 25 to 30% of the time interval between –5×10⁷ to +5×10⁷ years. Not only has the present Saros the smallest period during this time, but it also has one of the longest durations and the period closest to an integral number of anomalistic years, thus making it one of the most efficient Saros-like cycles for reversing solar perturbations in the main lunar problem. During the lifetime of a Saros-like cycle, variations of the Earth's orbital eccentricity cause frequent disappearances and reappearances of the cycle.