Solar cycles during the Maunder minimum

We have obtained new consistent versions of the 400-yr time series of the Wolf sunspot number W, the sunspot group number G, and the total sunspot area S (or the total sunspot magnetic flux Φ). We show that the 11-yr cycle did not cease during the Maunder minimum of solar activity. The characteristics of the extrema of individual 11-yr cycles in 1600–2005 have been determined in terms of the total sunspot area index. We provide arguments for using alternating (“magnetic”) time series of indices in investigating the solar cyclicity.     

Prediction of Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.     

Evidence for interchange reconnection between a coronal hole and an adjacent emerging flux region

Coronal holes are regions of dominantly monopolar magnetic field on the Sun where the field is considered to be ‘open’ towards interplanetary space. Magnetic bipoles emerging in proximity to a coronal hole boundary naturally interact with this surrounding open magnetic field. In the case of oppositely aligned polarities between the active region and the coronal hole, we expect interchange reconnection to take place, driven by the coronal expansion of the emerging bipole as well as occasional eruptive events. Using SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI data, we present observational evidence of such interchange reconnection by studying AR 10869 which emerged close to a coronal hole. We find closed loops forming between the active region and the coronal hole leading to the retreat of the hole. At the same time, on the far side of the active region, we see dimming of the corona which we interpret as a signature of field line ‘opening’ there, as a consequence of a topological displacement of the ‘open’ field lines of the coronal hole. (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Does the Sun have a face?

We analyse the Greenwich sunspot data with methods using kinematic frames, which allow to detect and filter off any systematic motion, such as differential rotation, of the longitudinal activity traces. The aim is to check the recent claim of the existence of century-scale persistent solar active longitudes exhibiting antisolar differential rotation. As a result, we find no evidence for such features. Nevertheless, as is well known, the sunspot distribution is highly clustered in longitude (activity nests); the simple cell-counting statistics allows us to estimate the coherence time of these features, giving roughly10 Carrington rotations. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A dynamo model for axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric solar magnetic fields

More and more observations are showing a relatively weak, but persistent, non-axisymmetric magnetic field co-existing with the dominant axisymmetric field on the Sun. Its existence indicates that the non-axisymmetric magnetic field plays an important role in the origin of solar activity. A linear non-axisymmetric  α²– Ω  dynamo model is derived to explore the characteristics of the axisymmetric  ( m = 0)  and the first non-axisymmetric  ( m = 1)  modes and to provide a theoretical basis with which to explain the 'active longitude', 'flip-flop' and other non-axisymmetric phenomena. The model consists of an updated solar internal differential rotation, a turbulent diffusivity varying with depth, and an α-effect working at the tachocline in a rotating spherical system. The difference between the  α²–Ω  and the  α–Ω  models and the conditions that favour the non-axisymmetric modes under solar-like parameters are also presented.     

Reconstruction of fire spread within wildland fire events in Northern Eurasia from the MODIS active fire product

Russian boreal forests have been reshaped by wildland fire for millennia. While fire is a natural component of boreal ecosystems, it impacts various aspects of the environment and affects human well-being. Often fires occur over large remote areas with limited access, which makes their ground-based observation difficult. A significant progress has been made in mapping burned area from satellite imagery, which provides consistent and fairly unbiased estimates of fire impact on areas of interest at multiple scales. Although the information provided by burned area products is highly important, the spatio-temporal dynamics of individual fire events and their impact are less known. In high northern latitudes of Northern Eurasia, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) makes up to four daily observations from each of the Terra and Aqua satellites providing consistent data on fire development with high temporal frequency. Here we introduce an approach to reconstruct the development of fire events based on active fire detections from MODIS. Fire Spread Reconstruction (FSR) provides a means for characterization of fire occurrence over large territories from remotely sensed data. Individual fire detections are clustered within a GIS environment based on a set of rules determining proximity between fire observations in space and time. FSR determines the number of fire events, their approximate size, duration, and fire spread rate and allows for the analysis of fire occurrence and spread as a function of vegetation, fire season, fire weather and other parameters. FSR clusters were compared to burned scars mapped from Landsat7/ETM+ imagery over Yakutia (Russia). While some smaller burn scars were found to be formed through a continuous burning of a single fire event, large burned areas in Siberia were created by a constellation of fire events incorporating over 100 individual fire clusters. Geographic regions were found to have a stronger influence on the rates of fire activity in the area compared to vegetation zones. In addition, fire spread rates do not directly correlate with the intensity of a given fire season. FSR is also used to identify the points of ignition for individual fire events in spatio-temporal domain for fire danger and fire threat modeling. This approach presents another step towards the more complete characterization of fire events from remotely sensed data.     

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light(WL) associated with major flares.We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon.In total,we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17,including 40 X-class,174 M-class,and 189 C-class flares.By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer(TRACE),we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares;and that,on the other hand,the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened.These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions.Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares.For X-class flares,over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change.For M-and C-class flares,this percentage drops to 17% and 10%,respectively.The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture,i.e.,the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.     

How Fast the Nucleus of Comet Hale–Bopp was Rotating?

At the First International Conference on Comet Hale–Bopp(Canaries, 1998) many astronomers agreed with the value of theperiod of axial rotation of its nucleus, which was obtained byobservers by a comparison of the two sequential patterns of thedust arcs. It was noted that the pattern had been repeated each∼12 hours. The value 11.35^h was taken as the periodof axial rotation. However, alternative periods of 4 and 8 days havealso been suggested. The possible reasons for thisdiscrepancy are discussed. It is shown that a short period could be obtained by a misidentification of the same arc on twosequential images and, as a result, an overestimate of theradial velocity of dust in the arcs. To obtain the half day period one must take the projected velocity of the arc ∼ 1.6 km/s,which exceeds the H₂O gas expansion velocity. If one takes a lower expansion velocity a longer period would be obtained.