豫西煤田构造煤反射率及其与古构造应力场的关系

为研究构造应力对煤反射率的影响,以豫西煤田不同构造区的构造煤和原生结构煤为对象,采用定向标本及反射率测定的方法作对比研究,发现构造煤的反射率比原生结构煤的反射率普遍偏高。根据反射率与构造应力的关系,求得各构造区的古构造应力场,通过与聚煤期后多次构造运动的主应力方向进行对比,可推知:影响嵩箕区二1煤变形和镜煤反射率的主要构造,是在前期断裂基础上喜山早期掀斜运动诱发的重力滑动构造,而影响崤熊区的则为燕山晚期的逆冲推覆作用。     

Terminus recession,proglacial lake expansion and 21st century calving retreat of Tasman Glacier,New Zealand

The Tasman Glacier is the largest glacier in New Zealand. Although 20th century warming caused down-wastage, it remained at its Little Ice Age terminus until the late 20th century. Since then, rapid calving retreat (U_r) has occurred, allowing a large (5.96 × 10⁶ m²) proglacial lake to form (maximum depth ∼240 m). From sequential satellite image analysis and echo sounding of Tasman Lake, we document (U_r) from 2000 to 2008. U_r varies temporally, with mean U_r of 54 m/a from 2000 to 2006 and a mean U_r of 144 m/a from 2007 to 2008. Consistent with global data sets, calving rate appears closely associated with lake depth at the calving terminus.     

人类活动引起的我国西北地区21世纪温度和降水变化情景分析

使用IPCCWG1第三次科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式的模拟预测结果,分析了人类活动对中国西北地区气候变化的影响.模拟结果表明,由于温室气体增加(GG)或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶(GS)增加,21世纪西北地区气温将可能平均变暖42～60℃·100a^-1.降水的变化较为复杂,由于温室气体的影响,未来西北地区降水将增加;考虑温室气体和硫化物气溶胶的共同影响,则略有增加.模式平均结果表明,未来西北地区降水将可能增加15～39mm·100a^-1.     

Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short time scale pulse stability of the Crab pulsar in the optical band

The fine structure and the variations of the optical pulse shape and phase of the Crab pulsar are studied on various time scales. The observations have been carried out on 4-m William Hershel and 6-m BTA telescopes with APD photon counter, photomultiplier based 4-channel photometer and PSD based panoramic spectrophotopolarimeter with 1 μs time resolution in 1994, 1999, 2003 and 2005–2006 years. The upper limit on the pulsar precession on Dec 2, 1999 is placed in the 10 s–2 hr time range. The evidence of a varying from set to set fine structure of the main pulse is found in the 1999 and 2003 years data. No such fine structure is detected in the integral pulse shape of 1994, 1999 and 2003 years. The drastic change of the pulse shape in the 2005–2006 years set is detected along with the pulse shape variability and quasi-periodic phase shifts. This work has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant No 04-02-17555), Russian Academy of Sciences (program “Evolution of Stars and Galaxies”), by the Russian Science Support Foundation, and by INTAS (grant No 04-78-7366).     

Giant radio pulses from the millisecond pulsar PSR B1937+21 at 327 MHz

Seven giant radio pulses were recorded from the millisecond pulsar PSR B1937+21 during ≈8.1 min observation by the Ooty Radio Telescope (ORT) at 326.5 MHz. Although sparse, these observations support most of the giant pulse behaviour reported at higher radio frequencies (430 to 2380 MHz). Within the main component of the integrated profile, they are emitted only in a narrow (≲47 μs) window of pulse phase, close to its peak. This has important implications for doing super-high precision timing of PSR B1937+21 at low radio frequencies.     

Inter-comparison of cosmogenic in-situ He, Ne and Cl at low latitude along an altitude transect on the SE slope of Kilimanjaro volcano (3°S, Tanzania)

Because the intensity and energy spectrum of the cosmic ray flux are affected by atmospheric depth and geomagnetic-field strength, cosmogenic nuclide production rates increase considerably with altitude and to a lesser degree with latitude. The scaling methods used to account for spatial variability in production rates assume that all cosmogenic nuclides have the same altitude dependence. In this study we evaluate whether the production rates of cosmogenic ³⁶Cl, ³He and ²¹Ne change differently with altitude, which is plausible due to the different threshold energies of their production reactions. If so, nuclide-specific scaling factors would be required.Concentrations of the three cosmogenic nuclides were determined in mafic phenocrysts over an altitude transect between 1000 and 4300 m at Kilimanjaro volcano (3°S). Altitude dependence of relative production rates was assessed in two ways: by determination of concentration ratios and by calculation of apparent exposure age ratios for all nuclide pairs. The latter accounts for characteristics of ³⁶Cl that the stable nuclides ³He and ²¹Ne do not possess (radioactive decay, high sensitivity to mineral composition and significant contributions from production reactions other than spallation). All ratios overlap within error over the entire transect, and altitudinal variation in relative production rates is not therefore evident. This suggests that nuclide-specific scaling factors are not required for the studied nuclides at this low-latitude location. However, because previous studies have documented anomalous altitude-dependent variations in ³He production at mid-latitude sites, the effect of latitude on cross-calibrations should be further evaluated.We determined cosmogenic ²¹Ne/³He concentration ratios of 0.1864 ± 0.0085 in pyroxenes and 0.377 ± 0.018 in olivines, agreeing with those reported in previous studies.Despite the absence of independently determined ages for the studied lava surfaces, the consistency in the dataset should enable progress to be made in the determination of the production rates of all three nuclides as soon as the production rate of one of the nuclides has been accurately defined.To our knowledge this is the first time that ³⁶Cl has been measured in pyroxene. The Cl extraction method was validated by measuring ³⁶Cl in co-existing plagioclase phenocrysts in one of the samples.     

2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨过程的水汽输送特征

利用NCEP再分析资料,根据水汽收支方程计算2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨时期华北东北部暴雨区域的水汽收支情况并分析水汽输送特征。得到以下结论:经向水汽输送在此次暴雨过程中起主要作用,暴雨区内水汽主要来源于中、低层(500 hPa以下)的南边界。暴雨区内水汽的辐合与暴雨发生的时间和空间具有较好一致性,在低层水汽的辐合起主要作用,中高层水汽垂直输送作用更为显著。HYSPLIT后向轨迹模拟得到的结果显示根据水汽源地划分影响此次暴雨过程水汽输送路径主要有:从孟加拉湾、南海地区处于中低层直接北上的西南路径,以及中层以下从我国东部海域(黄海、东海为主)进入内陆之后北折向东北偏北方向运动的L形高湿路径;同时高层沿着西风带西北路径的干空气输送也对此次强降水有重要影响。三者中从东部海域到达暴雨区的水汽贡献率最大,而孟加拉湾、南海的水汽输送对于此次强降水起到了明显的增强作用。