MIKE_SHE模型的发展与应用研究

MIKE SHE (MIKE System Hydrological European)作为基于物理过程的分布式水文模型的典型代表,能够清晰地描述完整的地表水-地下水文过程,拥有数据精确、多模块模拟、用户界面方便等优点。主要就MIKE SHE模型的发展历史和主要应用进行了简单的总结分析,并简要阐述其主要存在的问题和改善的方法。     

Numerical Study on Seasonal Transportation of the Suspended Sediments in the Modern Yellow River Mouth Effected by the Artificial Water and Sediment Regulation

Since 2002, an artificial water and sediment regulation(AWSR) has been carried out, which largely reduced water and sediment discharged from the Yellow River into the Bohai Sea. Although the sediment transport in the Yellow River Mouth(YRM) has been observed and modeled intensively since AWSR, but preferentially for the non-storm conditions. In this study, a three-dimensional current-wave-sediment coupled model, DHI-MIKE numerical model, was used to examine the seasonal suspended-sediment transport in the YRM after the AWSR. Results show that the seasonal distribution of suspended-sediments in the YRM is dominated by wind and wave rather than river input. The major transport pathway of suspended-sediments is from the western Laizhou Bay to the Bohai Strait during the winter monsoon, especially in storm events. In addition, about 66% of the river sediments deposit within 30 km of the YRM, which is smaller than previous estimations. It suggests that the YRM has been eroded in recent decades.     

北方浅水湖泊冬季结冰对风生流的影响

为了研究北方浅水湖泊冬季结冰对风生流的影响,采用MIKE21构建山东省聊城市东昌湖水动力学模型,分析真实风场作用下6种风应力拖曳系数对应的模拟流速与实测数据的差异,进一步讨论了冰盖面积对模拟结果产生的影响。结果表明,风应力拖曳系数为随风速连续变化比设置为常数模拟精度提高20%左右,其中采用微风条件下的风应力拖曳系数表达式模拟效果最好。此外,冬季水体结冰对风生流数值模拟影响较大,尤其是在被冰盖所覆盖的水域,风应力对水体流动的作用减弱甚至被抵消。与传统的风生流模拟相比,在北方浅水湖泊冬季风生流模拟中,引入冰场或是对风应力拖曳系数进行相应调整是有必要的。     

Distributed modelling of future changes in hydrological processes of Spencer Creek watershed

The hydrologic impact of climate change has been largely assessed using mostly conceptual hydrologic models. This study investigates the use of distributed hydrologic model for the assessment of the climate change impact for the Spencer Creek watershed in Southern Ontario (Canada). A coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model is developed to represent the complex hydrologic conditions in the Spencer Creek watershed, and later to simulate climate change impact using Canadian global climate model (CGCM 3·1) simulations. Owing to the coarse resolution of GCM data (daily GCM outputs), statistical downscaling techniques are used to generate higher resolution data (daily precipitation and temperature series). The modelling results show that the coupled model captured the snow storage well and also provided good simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater recharge. The simulated streamflows are consistent with the observed flows at different sites within the catchment. Using a conservative climate change scenario, the downscaled GCM scenarios predicted an approximately 14–17% increase in the annual mean precipitation and 2–3 °C increase in annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures for the 2050s (i.e., 2046–2065). When the downscaled GCM scenarios were used in the coupled model, the model predicted a 1–5% annual decrease in snow storage for 2050s, approximately 1–10% increase in annual ET, and a 0·5–6% decrease in the annual groundwater recharge. These results are consistent with the downscaled temperature results. For future streamflows, the coupled model indicated an approximately 10–25% increase in annual streamflows for all sites, which is consistent with the predicted changes in precipitation. Overall, it is shown that distributed hydrologic modelling can provide useful information not only about future changes in streamflow but also changes in other key hydrologic processes such as snow storage, ET, and groundwater recharge, which can be particularly important depending on the climatic region of concern. The study results indicate that the coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 hydrologic model could be a particularly useful tool for understanding the integrated effect of climate change in complex catchment scale hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving the predictions of a MIKE SHE catchment‐scale application by using a multi‐criteria approach

This paper suggests a multi‐criteria protocol for appropriately evaluating the predictions of hydrologic models during calibration and evaluation stages. The protocol includes different statistical, analytical and visual criteria such as analysis of peak and low flows, cumulative volumes, extreme value statistics, performance statistics, etc. Furthermore, the protocol assesses the physical consistency of model predictions by filtering the total observed hydrograph into different flow‐components (baseflow, interflow and overland flow) and using these filtered data in the calibration and evaluation processes. Based on the distributed modelling of a medium size catchment, it is shown that application of the suggested protocol, and in particular the use of the filtered flow‐components in model calibration, enhances the physical consistency of model predictions, adding considerable value to the calibration process. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip,India during monsoon and extreme events

Spectral and statistical wave parameters obtained from the measured time series wave data off Paradip, east coast of India during May 1996–January 1997 were analysed along with MIKE 21 spectral wave model (SW) results. Statistical wave parameters and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked, and the maximum energy distribution is in a narrow frequency band with an average directional spreading of 20°. Spectra for other seasons are multi-peaked, and energy is distributed over a wide range of frequencies and directions. The NCEP re-analysis winds were used in the model, and the results clearly bring out the wave features during depressions. The simulated wave parameters reasonably show good match with the measurements. For example, the correlation coefficient between the measured and modelled significant wave height is 0.87 and the bias −0.25.     

Physical controls on the dynamics of inlet sandbar systems

Knowledge of the physical processes acting at inlet systems and their interaction with sediments and sediment bodies is important to the understanding of such environments. The objectives of this study are to identify and assess the relative importance of the controlling processes across the complex sandbar system at the Teign inlet (Teignmouth, UK) through the combined application of a numerical model, field data and Argus video images. This allows the determination of the regions dominated by wave processes or by tidal processes and definition of the variability of these regions under different wave, tide and river-discharge conditions. Modelling experiments carried out for one stage of the evolution of the system show that the interaction between tidal motion and waves generates complex circulation patterns that drive the local sediment transport and sandbar dynamics, producing a cyclic morphological behaviour of the sandbars that form the ebb-tidal delta. The relative importance of each physical process on the sediment transport and consequent morphodynamics varies across the region. The main inlet channel is dominated by tidal action that directs the sediment transport as a consequence of the varying tidal flow asymmetry, resulting in net offshore transport. Sediment transport over the shoals and secondary channels at both sides of the main channel is dominated by wave-related processes, displacing sediment in the onshore direction. The interaction between waves and tide-generated currents controls the transport over the submerged sandbar that defines the channels seaward extend. High river discharge events are also proven to be important in this region, as they can change sediment-transport patterns across the area.Responsible Editor: Iris Grabemann     

厦门湾海洋塑料垃圾的运动特性及输移机理

作为新型海洋污染物,海洋塑料垃圾入海通量计算过程中涉及的源汇过程、迁移途径、输运过程等尚未完全清楚,需进一步研究完善。以工业高速发展的厦门湾为研究对象,考虑潮流、入海径流、风等因素的影响,基于MIKE3软件的生物仿真模拟技术(Agent Based Modelling),模拟研究了漂浮及悬浮塑料垃圾的分布特征和迁移规律,并提出经验公式对沉积塑料垃圾的通量进行了预测。结果表明漂浮塑料垃圾在不利风、常风向和最大风的作用下集中堆积于岸线处。而悬浮塑料垃圾由海面向下呈现指数式下降的分布特征,且其水平迁移分布与潮流运动密切相关;流速小的区域悬浮塑料垃圾更容易堆积使局部浓度升高。悬浮塑料垃圾的扩散速率也与塑料颗粒的物理性质有关,沉降速度小的塑料颗粒在水中悬浮的时间更长,更容易被传输到距离污染源更远的地方。同时,研究发现沉积微塑料通量的增长规律近似为线性变化,通量大小与厦门塑料产量和厦门湾的水动力特性相关。     

Evaluation of two spectral wave models for wave hindcasting in the Mackenzie Delta

Climate change, reduced sea ice and increased ice-free waters over extended areas for longer summer periods potentially lead to increased wave energy in the Beaufort Sea (Wang et al., 2015; Khon et al., 2014) [1], [2], which is a major concern for coastal and offshore engineering activities. We compare two spectral wave models SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) and MIKE 21 SW (hereafter MIKE21) in simulations of storm-generated waves in the Mackenzie Delta region of the southern Beaufort Sea. SWAN model simulations are performed using two nested grids system, whereas MIKE21 uses an unstructured grid system. Forcing fields are defined by hourly hindcast winds. Moving ice edge boundaries are incorporated during storm simulations. Modelled wave spectra from four storms are shown to compare well with field observations. Two established whitecapping formulations in SWAN are investigated: one dependent on mean spectral wave steepness, and the other on local spectral steepness. For the Beaufort Sea study area, we suggest that SWAN wave simulations using the latter local spectral steepness formulation are better than those using the former mean spectral steepness formulation. MIKE21 simulations also tend to agree with SWAN results using the latter whitecapping formulation.     

水动力方法改善品清湖水质的可行性及优化方案

为提升潟湖水环境质量和水动力条件,改善因潮水动力弱、自然条件限制和频繁的人类活动对沿海潟湖脆弱生态环境的影响,文章以亚洲第二大潟湖品清湖为例,基于MIKE21非结构网格建立了品清湖及周边海域二维水动力模型,并在此基础上耦合构建水质模型。通过分析对比品清湖现状与17种改造工况间的水动力及水质的影响变化发现,拆除近岸或者离岸1/2防波堤（工况2和工况3）或同步拆除1/4沙舌和部分崩坎角（工况9）可在较低工程量下有效地改善品清湖水动力及水质,使品清湖的整体平均流速提升10.42%~32.25%,纳潮量增加1.68%~2.48%,水体更新时间缩短21.44%~23.13%,TN和TP浓度分别降低9.0%~10.7%、11.2%~13%;工况2、工况3和工况9各有优势,但不适合共同实施。研究结果不但可为低成本品清湖修复工程提供实施依据,也可为潟湖的水动力、水质改善提供模拟案例。