On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Assessment of global meteorological,hydrological and agricultural drought under future warming based on CMIP6

在全球变暖背景下,分析和预测干旱的变化趋势和传播规律对于区域生态环境安全和灾害管理具有重要意义.本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),分析了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种变暖情景下的气象(标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸发指数SPED,水文(标准化径流指数SRI)和农业(标准化土壤水分指数SSI)...     

Acoustic-Gravity Waves from Bolide Sources

We have developed a new approach to modeling the acoustic-gravity wave (AGW) radiation from bolide sources. This first effort involves entry modeling of bolide sources that have available satellite data through procedures developed in ReVelle (Earth Moon Planets 95, 441–476, 2004a; in: A. Milani, G. Valsecchi, D. Vokrouhlicky (eds) NEO Fireball Diversity: Energetics-based Entry Modeling and Analysis Techniques, Near-earth Objects: Our Celestial Neighbors (IAU S236), 2007b). Results from the entry modeling are directly coupled to AGW production through line source blast wave theory for the initial wave amplitude and period at (at 10 blast wave radii and perpendicular to the trajectory). The second effort involves the prediction of the formation and or dominance of the propagation of the atmospheric Lamb, edge-wave composite mode in a viscous fluid (Pierce, J. Acoust. Soc. Amer. 35, 1798–1807, 1963) as a function of the source energy, horizontal range and source altitude using the Lamb wave frequency that was deduced directly during the entry modeling and that is used as a surrogate for the source energy. We have also determined that Lamb wave production by bolides at close range decreases dramatically as either the source energy decreases or the source altitude increases. Finally using procedures in Gill (Atmospheric-Ocean Dynamics, 1982) and in Tolstoy (Wave Propagation, 1973), we have analyzed two simple dispersion relationships and have calculated the expected dispersion for the Lamb edge-wave mode and for the excited, propagating internal acoustic waves. Finally, we have used the above formalism to fully evaluate these techniques for four large bolides, namely: the Tunguska bolide of June 30, 1908; the Revelstoke bolide of March 31, 1965; the Crete bolide of June 6, 2002 and the Antarctic bolide of September 3, 2004. Due to page limitations, we will only present results in detail for the Revelstoke bolide.     

Future Changes in the Relationship Between the South and East Asian Summer Monsoons in CMIP6 Models

The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5- 8.5) experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Six models, selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper- and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run, can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China. In the future scenario, the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend, due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future. At the lower level, the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate. The positive (negative) rainfall anomalies associated with positive (negative) SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley, the Korea Peninsula, and southern Japan. The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.     

Learning from CDM SD tool experience for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool’s SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement’s SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are ‘real, measurable and long-term’. Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Research findings are relevant for developing the rulebook of modalities and procedures for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which introduces a new mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the CDM SD tool and recommendations for enhanced SD assessment are discussed in context of Article 6 cooperative approaches, and make a timely contribution to inform negotiations on the rulebook agreed by the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.     

Geoscientific R&D for high level radioactive waste disposal in Sweden — current status and future plans

SKB (Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB) is responsible for all handling, transport and storage of the nuclear wastes outside the Swedish nuclear power stations. According to Swedish law, SKB is responsible for an R&D-programme needed to take care of the radwastes. The programme comprises, among others, a general supportive geo-scientific R&D and the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) for more in-situ specific tasks.

Sweden is geologically located in the Fennoscandian shield which is dominated by gneisses and granitoids of Precambrian age. The Swedish reference repository concept thus considers an excavated vault at ca. 500 m depth in crystalline rocks. In this concept (KBS-3), copper canisters with high level waste will be emplaced in deposition holes from a system of tunnels. Blocks of highly compacted swelling bentonite clay are placed in the holes leaving ample space for the canisters. At the final closure of the repository, the galleries are backfilled with a mixture of sand and bentonite. This repository design aims to make the disposal system as redundant as possible. Although the KBS-3 concept is the reference concept, alternative concepts and/or repository lay-outs are also studied. The main alternative, currently under development at SKB, is disposal in boreholes with depths of 4–5 km. The geoscientific research will to a great extent be guided by the demands posed by the performance and safety assessments, as well as the constuctability issues. Some main functions of the geological barrier are fundamental for the long-term safety of a repository. These are: bedrock mechanical stability, a chemically stable environment as well as a slow and stable groundwater flux. The main time-table for the final disposal of long-lived radioactive waste in Sweden foresees the final selection of the disposal system and site during the beginning of next decade.     

庆康灵6号药物对中国对虾免疫力的作用

养殖的中国对虾用尖加０．３％主康灵６号的０实验饲料进行了１８天投喂,在停止投喂实验饲料后的第２、８、１３天分别测定了对虾血淋巴淋巴、血浆的抗菌活力和血细胞溶解物的酚氧化酶活力。     

延安地区上三叠统长6期沉积特征及其演化

通过对川口油田测井曲线和岩心分析,总结了延安地区上三叠统长6期沉积微相特征,建立了长6期岩性和测井曲线的响应模式。再结合分析沉积的演化过程、电性和物性特征、骨架砂体的几何形态和沉积演变,得出该地区沉积相和演化模式。认为从长6₄到长6₁期沉积环境为湖泊、三角洲前缘、三角洲平原亚相到河流相。长6₁、长6₂是主力储层,其物性最好。      

A NEW FINDING OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1936 LINGSHAN M6(3/4) EARTHQUAKE,GUANGXI, CHINA

On April 1, 1936, an M6(3/4) earthquake occurred on the Fangcheng-lingshan Fault. This event is the biggest historical earthquake on the coastal seismic zone, South China ever. But so far, no any findings about the surface rupture of this event have been reported. This paper is the first to find several intact surface rupture zones associated with the 1936 Lingshan seismic event, in the areas of Gaotang, Jiaogengping etc. on the northeast segment of the Fangcheng-Lingshan Fault. According to the field work, the surface rupture stretches to 10km and distributes along NE direction in front of Luoyang Mountain, represented by earthquake scarp, extensional fracture, dextrally faulted gully and river system etc. The characteristics of surface ruptures and faulted landforms indicate that the surface rupture is of normal-dextral strike slip faulting. The trenching on this fault exposed that at least three seismic events have been recorded, including two historical earthquake events and the latest one is the 1936 Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. These surface rupture zones are the key to the detection of seismogenic structure and the re-estimate of magnitude of this event. The new finding of these surface rupture zones would be particularly significant for the detection of the seismogenic structure of Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake.