辽东湾地区下第三系地震速度—岩性预测模型研究

地震速度－岩性预测模型由四个子模型组成：即（１）砂泥岩压实模型；（２）地震层速度转换模型；（３）速度校正模型；（４）砂岩指数转换模型。辽东湾地区的实际资料证明，上述四个子模型不但决定了岩性预测的具体方法，而且严格控制岩性预测的精度。     

黄渤海底层盐度预报方法的研究

根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为α=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。     

1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟

建立了一个地震海啸数值模式,模式包含越洋海啸传播部分和近岸海啸变形部分,在越洋海啸传播部分中采用线性浅水方程,使用蛙跃格式求解,并且选择合适的空间步长与时间步长,使差分格式中产生的数值频散与包辛尼斯克方程中的物理频散一致,这样在不影响海啸数值计算精度的前提下,节省了计算机的机时与内存.在近岸海啸变形部分的计算中,考虑了非线性对流项与海底摩擦项.同时该模式采用了多重网格嵌套技术,提高了所关心地区的计算精度.利用这个地震海啸模式模拟了1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸,结果与观测记录较吻合.这个模型已用于我国沿海核电站可能最大地震海啸的数值计算.     

Grey Prediction of Siltation in North Channel of Yangtze Estuary

-The North Channel in the Yangtze Estuary is one of sea-leading waterways of Shanghai Harbour, in which yearly dredging volume reaches over ten million cubic meters, and it tends to increase year by year. Based on the channel regime similarity and through the relational grade, a GM (2, 1) is set up. It reveals the course of development of channel regime similarity under the action of various factors, and predicts the siltation volume in the nearest future which is the basis of dredging planning for relevant dredging departments.     

Prediction of Load Carrying Capacity of Corroded Reinforced Concrete Beam

A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved.     

台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报

本文利用台风移动方程对作用在台风上的各力进行了诊断分析：主要力是气压梯度力和地转偏向力，二者同量级，其他各力约小１－３个量级；当台风加速移动时，气压梯度力小于地转编向力；减速移动时，气压梯度力大于地转偏向力。用预报方程计算得到的台风路径与实际台风路径在趋势上近于一致，预报误差约为２００ｋｍ。     

沉降监测多项式回归分析与神经网络预测

使用多项式和切比雪夫(Tchebyshev)多项式分别对沉降监测数据进行回归分析以预测未来沉降值,其中切比雪夫多项式的外推效果较好;应用前向BP神经网络对两种不同的单因子输入模式进行非线性函数逼近,并进行了不同采样步长的比较,实例表明将时间点作为网络的输入对沉降进行预测效果较好。     

青岛胶州湾3.2级地震构造背景与控震断裂

本文应用构造分析的方法 ,对青岛胶州湾 3.2级地震发生的地震地质背景和构造背景进行分析。结果表明 :胶州湾 3.2级地震主要受 NEE向郝官庄断裂和 NNW向大沽河断裂控制 ,并根据现代活动断裂的标志 ,对上述 2组断裂活动性特征作了阐述     

Relationship between the seismicity and geologic structure of the Blanco Transform Fault Zone

Morphologic studies of an oceanic transform, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ), have shown it to consist of a series of extensional basins that offset the major strike-slip faults. The largest of the extensional basins, the Cascadia Depression, effectively divides the transform into a northwest segment, composed of several relatively short strike-slip faults, and a southeast segment dominated by fewer, longer faults. The regional seismicity distribution (m _b 4.0) and frequency-magnitude relationships (b-values) of the BTFZ show that the largest magnitude events are located on the southeast segment. Furthermore, estimates of the cumulative seismic moment release and seismic moment release rate along the southeast segment are significantly greater than that of the northwest segment. These observations suggest that slip along the southeast segment is accommodated by a greater number of large magnitude earthquakes. Comparison of the seismic moment rate, derived from empirical estimates, with the seismic moment rate determined from plate motion constraints suggests a difference in the seismic coupling strength between the segments. This difference in coupling may partially explain the disparity in earthquake size distribution. However, the results appear to confirm the relation between earthquake size and fault length, observed along continental strike-slip faults, for this oceanic transform.