云母石英片岩的三轴蠕变试验研究

在三轴蠕变试验的基础上,通过对径向蠕变和轴向蠕变的比较研究,得出云母石英片岩的蠕变变形和长期强度特点:径向蠕变变形比轴向蠕变变形敏感,以径向蠕变长期强度作为长期强度更合理;围压越大,对径向变形的约束能力越强,径向蠕变长期强度和轴向蠕变长期强度均增加,径向蠕变长期强度与轴向蠕变长期强度的比值减小。同时指出进行径向蠕变研究的意义。     

气温变化对西峰黄土高原地温与梨树发育期的影响

用西北地区140站1961-2000年的气温资料和西峰黄土高原1971-2005年5,10,15,20cm地温和1984-2005年梨树发育期资料,分析了西北地区春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和年气温的变化事实,再用相关计算和典型年份对比,分析了地温的时间变化规律及其对梨树发育期的影响。结果表明,西北地区20世纪60年代冬季增温,其余降温,70年代均降温,80年代冬季增温,其余降温,90年代均增温,冬季的最明显。西峰10cm地温各季节呈持续升高的趋势,春季增温最明显为0.058℃/a,变幅也最大,冬季增温幅度次之为0.039℃/a,再是秋季为0.032℃/a,夏季增温幅度最小为0.029℃/a,上升趋势均通过0.05和0.01的信度检验。冬季、春季地温与梨树的各发育期均为负相关,即地温高,发育期早,地温低,发育期迟。冬季地温与梨树发育期相关最显著的是叶变始期和开花始期,相关系数为-0.41～-0.52,信度为0.05,春季地温与之相关最显著的是开花始期,相关系数为-0.68～-0.69,信度达0.001。春季地温对梨树发育期的影响具有明显的持续性和滞后性,冬季地温对梨树发育期影响有阶段性,春季地温对梨树发育期的影响比冬季的明显。     

1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征

基于1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期降水量、雨日、日照时数、相对湿度等逐日气象资料,应用统计分析和小波分析方法,分析椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征及其大气环流背景.结果表明:1951—2018年衢州椪柑采摘期连阴雨日数、次数和强度呈略微增加趋势、滑动3d无雨次数呈减少趋势;滑动3d无雨次数存在明显的5a、7a和15a...     

Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.     

1961—2017年北疆初终霜日及霜期时空变化特征

利用1961—2017年北疆37个地面气象站逐日最低气温观测资料,结合常规气象统计方法,分析北疆地区初、终霜日和霜期的时空演变特征.结果表明:(1)北疆平均初霜日以2.2 d·(10a)-1速率推迟;平均终霜日以1.7 d·(10a)-1速率提前;平均霜期以3.9 d·(10a)-1速率缩短;初、终霜日和霜期的主周期均...     

Solution of the propagation of the waves in open channels by the transfer matrix method

Many problems in mechanics can be solved by the use of the transfer matrix method. The use of this method in hydraulics engineering is not widespread and only limited studies are available. In this study, linearized St. Venant equations were used and the use of transfer matrix in ocean engineering was investigated for long waves in open channels, and numerical application was carried out. The results obtained through the transfer matrix method, which is quite easy to use, program and comprehend, showed similar results obtained from the characteristics method and finite differences method.     

Characteristics of bottom dissolved oxygen in Long Island Sound,New York

The variability of bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) in Long Island Sound, New York, is examined using water quality monitoring data collected by the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection from 1995 to 2004. Self-organizing map analysis indicates that hypoxia always occurs in the Narrows during summer and less frequently in the Western and the Central Basins. The primary factor controlling the bottom DO, changes spatially and temporally. For non-summer seasons, the levels of bottom DO are strongly associated with water temperature, which means DO availability is primarily driven by solubility. During summer, stratification intensifies under weak wind conditions and bottom DO starts to decrease and deviate from the saturation level except for stations in the Eastern Basin. For the westernmost and shallow (<15 m) stations, bottom DO is correlated with the density stratification (represented by difference between surface and bottom density). In contrast, at deep stations (>20 m), the relationship between oxygen depletion and stratification is not significant. For stations located west of the Central Basin, bottom DO continues to decrease during summer until it reaches its minimum when bottom temperature is around 19–20 °C. In most cases the recovery to saturation levels at the beginning of fall is fast, but not necessarily associated with increased wind mixing. Therefore, we propose that the DO recovery may be a manifestation of either the reduced microbial activity combined with the depletion of organic matter or horizontal exchange. Hypoxic volume is weakly correlated to the summer wind speed, spring total nitrogen, spring chlorophyll a, and maximum river discharge. When all variables are combined in a multiple regression, the coefficient of determination (r²) is 0.92. Surprisingly, the weakest variable is the total nitrogen, because when it is excluded the coefficient r² only drops to 0.84. Spring bloom seems to be an important source of organic carbon pool and biological uptake of oxygen plays a more crucial role in the seasonal evolution of bottom DO than previously thought. Our results indicate that the reassessment phase of the Long Island Sound Total Maximum Daily Load policy on nitrogen loading will most likely fail, because it ignores the contributions of the spring organic carbon pool and river discharge. Also, it is questionable whether the goal of 58.5% anthropogenic nitrogen load reduction is enough.     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

汕尾风暴潮频率与海堤改造初探

通过研究1970-2005年间汕尾港遭受风暴潮袭击的程度,对汕尾港风暴潮增水情况进行分析,用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布两种概率统计方法分别对汕尾港不同重现期潮位值进行推算,并以此为基础结合走访相关单位和实地踏勘收集汕尾海堤历史和现状资料、风暴潮频率和海平面变化情况等,运用海堤工程设计防潮相关标准探讨汕尾已建海堤存在的问题,并针对性地提出改造建议,为汕尾市海堤的修复加固和管理提供参考.     

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