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931.
走向21世纪的地壳形变学--对大陆动力学与地震预测的新推动 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
周硕愚 《大地测量与地球动力学》1999,19(1):1-13
监测和预测地震等自然灾害的需要,促进了大地测量学和地球物理学等学科的相互交融.经过30余年的探索,一门地学前沿交叉新学科--"地壳形变学"已初步形成.地壳形变学已拥有空间-地面-深部立体测地系统,具有在多种空间尺度内精确测定现今地壳运动(秒~数十年)和灾害孕育过程的空前强大能力,从而可望击破长期制约现今地球动力学和地震预测的地球空间信息的"瓶颈".在21世纪,地壳形变学将成为推动大陆动力学和地震预报的主要科技动力之一,推进精确定量测定大陆动力学现今过程,限定现今大陆动力学性质并在验证解释地质学模型诸方面发挥特有作用.它将促使地震预测摆脱"粘滞状态",由"经验预测"走向"图像动力学预测";在揭示大陆地震孕育时空过程、判定地震大形势、划定危险区、搜寻和跟踪震源动力学演化过程及研究动力学响应耦合等方面作出新贡献. 相似文献
932.
The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau,but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere. 相似文献
933.
An advanced method of automated seismic phase picking and exact location and magnitude determination of swarm micro-earthquakes from local network data is presented. The phase picker is applied in two steps: first, S-wave groups are identified using a polarisation detector, and then corresponding P-wave groups are searched for. The times of maximum P- and S-amplitudes are then used as starting points for the determination of accurate P- and S-arrival times. The maximum S-wave amplitudes are utilised for determining local magnitudes. The whole procedure is checked by simultaneous preliminary hypocentre location providing estimates of local magnitudes and a compatibility check of the candidate P- and S-phases. The closest station to the earthquake cluster is used as a master, and the phase search at the remaining stations is governed by the P- and S-phases identified at the master station. Thanks to the use of apriori information on the approximate position of hypocentres, the procedure is also capable of picking the individual P- and S-phases of sequences of overlapping swarm events. The performance of the procedure was tested by comparison of the automatically and interactively created catalogues of the January 1997 NW-Bohemia micro-earthquake swarm. With stations located at epicentral distances between 0 and 20 km, the difference between hypocentre coordinates obtained by automatic and interactive processing did not exceed 80 m for 86% events. All events above magnitude 0.5 were identified, and the automatically determined polarity of first P-wave motion proved to be correct in 89% of them. 相似文献
934.
935.
936.
地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。 相似文献
937.
1997年1月21日-1998年8月27日新疆伽师发生了包含9次6级地震的强震群,震源机制解表明有NE向和NW向两个节面.有观点认为主破裂面为NNW向.本通过数字地震台阵的余震序列精确定位、震源破裂过程及滑动方向、震群空间分布图像、地震烈度等震线长轴走向和微、宏观震中动态变化方向等多种方法分析后,综合判定9次6级地震的主破裂面走向极可能为北东方向. 相似文献
938.
Soil effects on peak ground acceleration, velocity and elastic response spectra (5% damping) are expressed by simple approximate relations in terms of five key parameters: (a) the fundamental vibration period of the non‐linear soil, TS, (b) the period of a bedrock site of equal thickness, Tb, (c) the predominant excitation period, Te, (d) the peak seismic acceleration at outcropping bedrock, a, and (e) the number of significant excitation cycles, n. Furthermore, another relation is proposed for the estimation of TS in terms of the soil thickness H, the average shear wave velocity of the soil V?S,o and a. The aforementioned parameters were first identified through a simplified analytical simulation of the site excitation. The multivariable approximate relations were then formulated via a statistical analysis of relevant data from more than 700 one‐dimensional equivalent‐linear seismic ground response analyses, for actual seismic excitations and natural soil conditions. Use of these relations to back‐calculate the numerical results in the database gives an estimate of their error margin, which is found to be relatively small and unbiased. The proposed relations are also independently verified through a detailed comparison with strong motion recordings from seven well‐documented case studies: (a) two sites in the San Fernando valley during the Northridge earthquake, and (b) five different seismic events recorded at the SMART‐1 accelerometer array in Taiwan. It is deduced that the accuracy of the relations is comparable to that of the equivalent‐linear method. Hence, they can be readily used as a quick alternative for routine applications, as well as for spreadsheet computations (e.g. GIS‐aided seismic microzonation studies) where numerical methods are cumbersome to implement. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
939.
通过普洱6.3、宁蒗6.2级和姚安6.5级3个在省内M≥5级地震平静了10余个月,打破5级平静后发生的M≥6级强震前水汞的异常分析,并着重短临异常研究,结果表明这3次地震前水汞均有中期和短、临异常,中、短、临异常台站数为两头少,中间多。中期异常表现为11%。22%的水汞观测台站震前出现2—10个月的中期异常;短期异常表现为震前2—3个月,平均44%的台站观测到短期异常,最大异常幅度与异常判定线比值在1.3—3.2倍之间:强震前都只有1个台站出现临震异常。短期异常有差异,宁蒗6.2级主震前,短期异常在2次前震前出现,普洱6.3、姚安6.5级地震前,水汞短期异常在打破5级平静的地震前出现,水汞短期异常有活跃、平静的现象。最早出现中期异常的台站相对靠近震中。 相似文献
940.