Integration of Tracer Test Data to Refine Geostatistical Hydraulic Conductivity Fields Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method

On the basis of local measurements of hydraulic conductivity,geostatistical methods have been found to be useful in heterogeneity characterization of a hydraulic conductivity field on a regional scale. However,the methods are not suited to directly integrate dynamic production data,such as,hydraulic head and solute concentration,into the study of conductivity distribution. These data,which record the flow and transport processes in the medium,are closely related to the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity. In this study,a three-dimensional gradient-based inverse method-the sequential self-calibration (SSC) method-is developed to calibrate a hydraulic conductivity field,initially generated by a geostatistical simulation method,conditioned on tracer test results. The SSC method can honor both local hydraulic conductivity measurements and tracer test data. The mismatch between the simulated hydraulic conductivity field and the reference true one,measured by its mean square error (MSE),is reduced through the SSC conditional study. In comparison with the unconditional results,the SSC conditional study creates the mean breakthrough curve much closer to the reference true curve,and significantly reduces the prediction uncertainty of the solute transport in the observed locations. Further,the reduction of uncertainty is spatially dependent,which indicates that good locations,geological structure,and boundary conditions will affect the efficiency of the SSC study results.     

基于线弹性位错模型及干涉雷达同震形变场反演1997年玛尼Mw75级地震参数－Ⅰ.均匀滑动反演

1997年11月8日西藏玛尼Mw75级地震是干涉雷达技术应用于地震观测以来的一次重要事件.Peltzer等认为该形变场体现了地壳的非线性弹性形变响应，挤压象限和拉张象限的杨氏模量比值为2.相同的情形并没有在其他地震同震形变场中发现，通常用线弹性理论就能够很好地解释观测数据.考虑到他们所用断层模型的简化程度和纯走滑约束等，本研究认为非线性弹性解释是牵强的.应用广泛使用的Okada线弹性位错模型，采用卫星观测得到的地表断层位置，去除倾滑为零的约束，基于非线性优化反演方法寻求拟合雷达观测的最佳断层几何参数和均匀滑动参数.结果表明，线弹性模型能够满意解释观测数据.断层在朝阳湖以东的段落最深达到165 km，随着断层向两侧延伸，深度逐渐减小；反演得到的断层倾     

Feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network model. In formulating the ANN — based predictive model, three-layer network has been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The monthly summer monsoon rainfall totals, tropical rainfall indices and sea surface temperature anomalies have been considered as predictors while generating the input matrix for the ANN. The data pertaining to the years 1950–1995 have been explored to develop the predictive model. Finally, the prediction performance of neural net has been compared with persistence forecast and Multiple Linear Regression forecast and the supremacy of the ANN has been established over the other processes.     

Sensitivity equations for hyperbolic conservation law-based flow models

The present paper focuses on the governing equations for the sensitivity of the variables to the parameters in flow models that can be described by one-dimensional scalar, hyperbolic conservation laws. The sensitivity is shown to obey a hyperbolic, scalar conservation law. The sensitivity is a conserved scalar except in the case of discontinuous flow solutions, where an extra, point source term must be added to the equations in order to enforce conservation. The propagation speed of the sensitivity waves being identical to that of the conserved variable in the original conservation law, the system of conservation laws formed by the original hyperbolic equation and the equation satisfied by the sensitivity is linearly degenerate. A consequence on the solution of the Riemann problem is that rarefaction waves for the variable of the original equation result in vacuum regions for the sensitivity. The numerical solution of the hyperbolic conservation law for the sensitivity by finite volume methods requires the implementation of a specific shock detection procedure. A set of necessary conditions is defined for the discretisation of the source term in the sensitivity equation. An application to the one-dimensional kinematic wave equation shows that the proposed numerical technique allows analytical solutions to be reproduced correctly. The computational examples show that first-order numerical schemes do not yield satisfactory numerical solutions in the neighbourhood of moving shocks and that higher-order schemes, such as the MUSCL scheme, should be used for sharp transients.     

Coseismic deformation and slip distribution of the 1997 7.5 Manyi, Tibet, earthquake from InSAR measurements

We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations to investigate the coseismic deformation and slip distribution of the 1997 M_w7.5 Manyi earthquake, a left-lateral strike-slip earthquake occurred on the west portion of the Kunlun fault in the northern Tibet, China. The fault trace is constrained by the combination of interferometric coherence image and azimuth offset image. The total length of the identified fault is about 170 km. We estimate the source parameters using a seven-segment fault model in a homogeneous elastic half-space. We first use a uniform slip model to estimate the slip, width, dip and rake for each segment, resulting in a maximum slip of 5.5 m with a depth of 11 km on the fourth segment. The average dip of the uniform slip model is about 93° northward and the average rake is about −2°. We then use a distributed slip model to estimate the pure strike-slip and oblique slip distribution, respectively. In the distributed slip model, the fault plane is discretized into 225 patches, each of them 4 km × 4 km. We fix the optimal geometric parameters and solve for the slip distribution using a bounded variable least-squares (BVLS) method. We find a geodetic moment of 1.91 × 10²⁰ Nm (M_w7.5), of which almost 68% released in the uppermost 8 km and 82% in the uppermost 12 km. For all the models used in this study, the synthetic profiles along strike show asymmetric displacements on the opposite sides of the fault, which are in agreement with the observations. This suggests that a linear elastic model with variable and non-vertical dips is also reasonable for the mechanism of the Manyi earthquake.     

近50年庐山气温和降水变化趋势分析

利用庐山气象站逐月观测资料,对1956—2005年庐山气温和降水的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明,近50 a庐山年平均气温上升了0.8℃,其中冬季上升最明显,为1.5℃;夏季呈下降趋势,为0.2℃。20世纪60年代庐山年平均气温、夏季最高气温下降最为明显,1996年以后上升最为明显。年降水量自1996年起明显下降。庐山的年最高气温、年最低气温、秋季平均气温、秋季最高气温、春季最高气温、春季最低气温在1998年发生了均值突变,冬季最低气温则在1992年前后出现了均值突变;夏季降水在1995年出现均值突变。     

数值天气预报的创新之路--从初值问题到反问题

基于大气并非是一个确定论的系统,从信息论的视角考察了数值天气预报问题。认为表征初值和边值的数据可以视为输入信息(信息源),而数值模式则不过是一个信息变换机构,它把输入信息变换成预报结论而输出来,输出的预报结论则是未来天气状况的信息。于是预报的准确性受制于:一是输入信息所包含的输出信息的信息量,另一是信息在变换过程中丢失的信息量。从初值的形成过程揭示出了当前观测系统在一个时刻提供的数据没有包含初值所要求的全部信息,而缺失的部分或多或少的隐藏在过去的观测数据中。提为初值问题意味着只依据一个时刻的状态导致输入的信息量缺失,应考虑过去的历史数据以增加输入数据中所包含的预报量的信息。文中指出由于输出信息比输入还多的数值模式是不存在的,这样的改进带有根本性。进一步论证了数值模式的误差信息,也或多或少的隐藏在过去的历史数据中,为了充分使用过去的观测数据,本文建议改变问题的提法,不提成初值问题,提成反问题。资料同化本质上是反问题,其欠定性不应人为夸大。提成反问题的数值天气预报能充分应用过去的历史资料,将天气方法、统计方法、动力方法有机地结合在一起。对于这个反问题如何具体求解方面,在分析了业务和研究的区别,模式的普适性和针对性的统一的基础上,给出了反问题的具体解决途径。强调无需构建新模式(这是非常困难的工作),只需运行现成的模式,借助所关心的预报对象的历史数据来改造现成模式,因而是完全可行的。     

大地主题解算方法综述

大地主题解算是大地测量中的重要问题,由于椭球的复杂性,随之产生的解算方法也是多种多样。本文分析了大地主题解算的一般方法及其公式的适用范围,指出了它们的特点和不足,讨论了现今常用解算方法存在的问题和进一步的研究方向。     

Uniaxial Compression of Synthetic, Poorly Consolidated Granular Rock with a Bimodal Grain-size Distribution

Summary. We attempted to gain some insight into the mechanical properties of poorly consolidated granular rock by preparing and testing synthetic rock specimens in which different cement content and bimodal grain-size distributions were used. We mixed various proportions of fine and coarse sand, Portland cement, and water. The mixture was cast in a mold and left pressure-free during curing, thus ensuring that the final material was poorly consolidated. The specimens were tested in a uniaxial press. During these tests, the static Youngs modulus was measured by performing small stress excursions at discrete intervals along the stress-strain curve. We observed significant non-linear elasticity (i.e., Youngs modulus increased with stress) in all the specimens. As expected, the uniaxial compressive strength increased with increasing cement content. Furthermore, we observed a transition from grain-size sensitivity of strength at cement contents less than 20–30% to grain-size independence above this value. At high cement content, the measured values of Youngs modulus are relatively well explained by a model based on rigid inclusions embedded in a soft matrix. At low cement content, we suggest that modelling the individual cemented grain-to-grain contacts becomes necessary. But this could not be done here for lack of microstructural information.     

The GPS-gravimetry boundary value problem

Boundary value problem (BVP) plays a funda-mental role in physical geodesy that aims at determin-ing the earth’s shape and its external gravity field. TheMolodensky BVP and the Stokes BVP are typical inphysical geodesy, and the gravity anomaly is a kind ofbasic data. With the wide use of GPS, measurementaccuracy of the earth’s surface can reach one centime-ter, while that of the gravity measurement can reachμgals. Hence, it is necessary to establish a new kind ofBVP which can satisfy…