Developing a satellite-based combined drought indicator to monitor agricultural drought: a case study for Ethiopia

Developing a robust drought monitoring tool is vital to mitigate the adverse impacts of drought. A drought monitoring system that integrates multiple agrometeorological variables into a single drought indicator is lacking in areas such as Ethiopia, which is extremely susceptible to this natural hazard. The overarching goal of this study is to develop a combined drought indicator (CDI-E) to monitor the spatial and temporal extents of historic agricultural drought events in Ethiopia. The CDI-E was developed by combining four satellite-based agrometeorological input parameters – the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) anomaly, Standardized Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (stdNDVI) and Soil Moisture (SM) anomaly – for the period from 2001 to 2015. The method used to combine these indices is based on a quantitative approach that assigns a weight to each input parameter using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The CDI-E results were evaluated using satellite-based gridded rainfall (3-month SPI) and crop yield data for 36 intra-country crop growing zones for a 15-year period (2001 to 2015). The evaluation was carried out for the main rainfall season, Kiremt (June-September), and the short rainfall season, Belg (February-May). The results showed that moderate to severe droughts were detected by the CDI-E across the food insecure regions reported by FEWS NET during Kiremt and Belg rainfall seasons. Relatively higher correlation coefficient values (r > 0.65) were obtained when CDI-E was compared with the 3-month SPI across the majority of Ethiopia. The spatial correlation analyses of CDI-E and cereal crop yields showed relatively good correlations (r > 0.5) in some of the crop growing zones in the northern, eastern and southwestern parts of the country. The CDI-E generally mapped the spatial and temporal patterns of historic drought and non-drought years and hence the CDI-E could potentially be used to develop an agricultural drought monitoring and early warning system in Ethiopia. Moreover, decision makers and donors may potentially use CDI-E to more accurately monitor crop yields across the food-insecure regions in Ethiopia.     

NDVI dynamics as reflected in climatic variables: spatial and temporal trends – a case study of Hungary

Understanding climate change and revealing its future paths on a local level is a great challenge for the future. Beside the expanding sets of available climatic data, satellite images provide a valuable source of information. In our study we aimed to reveal whether satellite data are an appropriate way to identify global trends, given their shorter available time range. We used the CARPATCLIM (CC) database (1961–2010) and the MODIS NDVI images (2000–2016) and evaluated the time period covered by both (2000–2010). We performed a regression analysis between the NDVI and CC variables, and a time series analysis for the 1961–2008 and 2000–2008 periods at all data points. The results justified the belief that maximum temperature (TMAX), potential evapotranspiration and aridity all have a strong correlation with the NDVI; furthermore, the short period trend of TMAX can be described with a functional connection with its long period trend. Consequently, TMAX is an appropriate tool as an explanatory variable for NDVI spatial and temporal variance. Spatial pattern analysis revealed that with regression coefficients, macro-regions reflected topography (plains, hills and mountains), while in the case of time series regression slopes, it justified a decreasing trend from western areas (Transdanubia) to eastern ones (The Great Hungarian Plain). This is an important consideration for future agricultural and land use planning; i.e. that western areas have to allow for greater effects of climate change.     

Characteristics of Pore Water Pressure of Saturated Silt Under Wave Loading

The characteristics of dynamic stress in the seabed under wave loading are constant principal stress and continuous rotation of the principal stress direction.Cyclic triaxial-torsional coupling shear tests were performed on saturated silt by the hollow cylinder apparatus under different relative densities,deviator stress ratios and vibration frequencies to study the development of pore water pressure of the saturated silt under wave loading.It was found that the development of pore water pressure follows the trend of "fast～steady～drastic".The turning point from fast to steady stage is not affected by relative density and deviator stress ratio.However,the turning point from steady to drastic stage relies on relative density and deviator stress ratio.The vibration cycle for the liquefaction of saturated silt decreases with increasing deviator stress ratio and increases with relative density.The vibration cycle for the liquefaction of the saturated silt increases with vibration frequency and reaches a peak value,after which it decreases with increasing vibration frequency for the relative density of 70%.But the vibration cycle for the liquefaction of saturated silt increases with vibration frequency for the relative density of 30%.The development of pore water pressure of the saturated silt is influenced by relative density and vibration frequency.     

利用概率加权回归和主成分分析评估低盐诱导太平洋牡蛎三倍体幼虫的效果

为提供一种更科学、全面的三倍体诱导盐度综合评价方法,本研究采用了两种新的统计学方法对低盐诱导太平洋牡蛎(Crassostrea gigas)幼虫三倍体的效果进行了评估。利用概率加权回归拟合构建了低盐诱导太平洋牡蛎三倍体过程中卵裂率、孵化率与盐度的Probit回归模型,得到了不同诱导盐度条件下卵裂率及孵化率的估计值,其中50%卵裂率及50%孵化率的诱导盐度估计值分别为5.648和8.644,对该模型的可信性进行了验证。应用主成分分析法得到了两个可以代表卵裂率、孵化率和三倍体率的主成分和不同诱导盐度的综合评价指数,其中盐度8得分最高,为0.67,其次为盐度10,得分为0.54。研究结果表明,要达到50%孵化率,诱导盐度需大于8.644;盐度8和10均为合适的诱导盐度,其中盐度8诱导率更高、存活率较低,盐度10存活率更高、诱导率稍低。     

主振荡型（POP）分析方法原理

对离散化场的时间序列，详细推导了主振荡型分析方法的两个导出量；主振荡型（POP）及其伴随相关型（ACP）。通过热带太平洋SST距平均时间序列POP及相应区域850hPa风场ACP的计算例子，给出了它们的实际算法。     

新疆伊犁地区畜牧气象灾害主成份线性加权评估模型

以畜牧气象灾害系统为背景，建立了一个多指标系统综合评估的主成份线性加权数学模型，并应用该模型对新疆伊犁地区的畜牧气象灾害按年份进行了综合评估与排序，从中提炼出大量有用的信息，为当地制定畜牧业发展战略提供了定量依据。     

支持向量机在雷暴预报中的应用

论文利用2002--2006年AREM模式产品和常规观测报文资料,综合运用改进的K平均聚类和主成分分析等方法,基于MOS原理逐月建立了最小二乘支持向量机和线性规划支持向量机的单站雷暴释用预报模型,并针对海口站2007年58月进行了具体的预报。结果表明：支持向量机结合AREM模式产品进行雷暴的释用预报是合适、有效的,而且主成分分析对预报结果的提高也起到了积极的作用。     

夏季500hPa候平均高度场的多年持续性异常与我国北方持续干旱

本文对北半球夏季500hPa 候平均高度场,在进行旋转主分量分析的基础上,应用Mann-Kendall 秩和检验,计算分析了出现多年持续异常的地区和突变年代.结果表明,夏季西大西洋(WA)型具有明显的10—20年时间尺度的持续性异常特点,近40年中出现突变的标志年代是1966年,先前于 Sahel 和我国北方近20年来持续干旱的发展.     

北半球夏季５００hPa候平均高度场异常持续性的分析

本文应用环流持续性异常判据和旋转主分量分析方法，对１９５１—１９８６年间夏季北半球５００hPa逐候平均高度场进行了计算分析，探讨夏季持续性环流异常的地理分布及持续期的基本特征。结果表明:前１１项旋转主分量的主要高荷载中心，与持续异常的高频数中心或其邻近区域大都基本吻合；候平均环流异常的持续性略高于马尔柯夫过程。但某些区域季节性环流异常及多年趋势性环流异常，通常是由某些环流系统或作用中心多次替换、反复出现的持续性异常所组成的。夏季副热带系统是这类异常的重要组成部分。     

广东省中心城市发展潜力分析与省域城镇空间发展

运用主成分分析法(PCA),在SPSS 13.0统计软件支持下,对广东省21个中心城市的发展潜力进行了测度,并将第一、第二和综合主成分按其得分水平进行了等级划分.结果表明:各主成分所代表的经济活力、农业发展水平和城市发展潜力,在省域范围内的地域分布具有不同的特征,且三者间差异较大.据此提出了有利于广东省城镇空间合理有序发展的几点启示.