一次春季强冰雹天气过程分析

利用常规观测资料及新一代多普勒雷达资料对2004年3月30日发生在广东的强冰雹过程进行了详细分析。结果表明:中高层强冷空气入侵配合地面中尺度低压的发展,导致不稳定能量突增;下湿上干的不稳定层结、合适的0℃层与-20℃层高度利于大冰雹的形成;强有力的中尺度抬升系统和强垂直风切变直接导致强对流的发生,并使强对流长时间维持。在强风暴的发展过程中,广州新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD-SA)观测到高悬的强回波、风暴中低层强入流、风暴顶强辐散及冰雹云三体散射所产生的钉状回波(TBSS)等特征。雷达资料分析表明:TBSS的强度随着上升气流的强弱及冰雹的降落发生变化;即使无中气旋,持久稳定的风暴相对入流和风暴顶强辐散也能使强风暴长时间维持;风暴顶辐散减弱,标志着入流减弱,伴随着强回波核下降,风暴进入消亡阶段。     

气候变化与北疆北部2000年特大雪灾的必然性及预测

利用1960～2003年新疆阿勒泰地区7测站及塔城地区北部5测站当年11月至次年1月,44a气温、降水资料,研究了北疆北部冬季气候变化特征,解释了2000年该地区冬季特大雪灾极端气候事件出现的必然性,最后探讨了该地区冬季降水的预测问题;并得出一点很有意义的结论:在气候增暖、增湿背景下,特大雪灾也是可以预报的。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器对扰动事件的观测

本文比较了在太阳平静和扰动时期“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器对卫星舱内高能粒子的观测结果，发现在平静时期观测结果很好地反映了辐射带高能粒子在该高度上的分布情况.在扰动时期，粒子探测器观测到高能粒子分布出现重大变化，本文进一步讨论了影响高能粒子在近地空间分布的可能因素.     

No apparent lock-in depth of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion: Evidence from the Malan loess

Developing an accurate chronological framework is always a key issue in paleoclimatic studies. Magneto- stratigraphy has been a routine tool for such purposes. However, complexities arise for inter-profile correla- tions of magnetostratigraphy due to effects of the lock-in process. One good example is the “mystery” of the mismatching of stratigraphic locations of the Matuyama/Brunhes boundary (MBB) (occurred at ~780 ka) recorded in Chinese loess and marine sedi- ments. Tauxe et al.[1] con…     

内蒙古额济纳旗地貌特征及其构造、气候事件

根据遥感卫星影像解译及野外地质实地调查,将内蒙古额济纳旗地区的地貌单元划分为中低山区、冲—洪积平原、湖积盆地及风成地貌。根据不同地貌单元组成的沉积物年龄测定和分析,初步认为上新世—早更新世的构造抬升形成苏泊淖尔级湖积阶地;早更新世末(750±60kaBP),发生一次明显的构造抬升活动,形成东、西居延海间的台地;另一次明显的构造抬升记录发生在中更世末—晚更新世初,即149±60kaBP之后,形成黑城冲湖积台地;苏泊淖尔级阶地形成于全新世早、中期,属气候干旱湖泊萎缩形成的气候阶地,阶地沉积物中保存的古风成砂丘,表明晚更新世末—全新世早期气候一度恶化。天鹅湖湖积阶地的形成表明5000a之后一段时间,气候相对适宜;全新世中后期,气候波动强烈,1200aBP出现一次丰水期。     

El Ni?o事件大气-洋流异常与暖海温传播机理研究

利用1971～2000年逐月SODA (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation) 同化资料（Carton等，2004）、1980～2000年逐月NCEP/NCAR再分析资料（Kalnay等，1996）探讨中部型（暖海水首先出现在120°W以西）和东部型（暖海水首先出现在120°W以东）El Ni?o事件赤道纬向风应力及洋流的异常变化与暖海水信号的传播特征。研究指出:（1）中部型和东部型El Ni?o事件发生时，太平洋上赤道海表最大西风应力距平在西太平洋地区都有显著的东传现象，但中部型El Ni?o事件西风应力距平强度强，造成西太平洋赤道表层的东向流可达东太平洋地区，这类El Ni?o事件强度偏强。（2）中部型El Ni?o事件，赤道表层洋流辐合区及其下沉运动由西太平洋向东太平洋传播，辐合下沉运动抑制了深层冷海水上翻，西太平洋暖水能够传到东太平洋与西太平洋赤道表层洋流辐合区及其下沉运动的东移有关。（3）东部型El Ni?o事件西太平洋赤道表层洋流辐合区及其下沉运动没能直接传到东太平洋地区，东太平洋暖水形成与局地（120°W以东）辐合下沉运动抑制深层冷海水上翻有关；东部型El Ni?o事件暖池次表层的暖水，不是沿着西太平洋赤道次表层向东传播到东太平洋地区，而是由南太平洋西边界流将暖池海水带到40°S左右的西风漂流区， 再由西风漂流平流到东太平洋。     

Variations in dust event frequency over the past century reflected by ice-core and lacustrine records in north China

In this paper, we analyzed the variations of dust proxies in the Dunde, Malan and Chongce ice cores from the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hongjiannao lacustrine sediment core from north Shaanxi Province, and found that they all showed a general decrease trend over the past century. Owing to the fact that all these ice cores and lacustrine core were retrieved from the margins and/or the leeward sides of the major areas of dust events in north China, their records could suggest that the dust event frequency in north China declined over the study period. This decrease trend might be attributed to increasing precipitation and weakening westerly. However, human activities have made the areal extent of desertification expand acceleratingly in north China. This status could make it possible that dust events would occur on a large spatial scale under the future climate change, which would be a big environmental issue we shall face.     

九江-瑞昌地震的精确定位及其发震构造初探

联合采用双差法和主事件法,对2005年11月26日发生在江西省九江县与瑞昌市交界的5.7级地震序列进行了重新定位,并在此基础上讨论了5.7级主震的震源机制解和可能的发震构造。结果显示:精定位后震源位置的估算误差在EW方向上平均为0.31km,NS方向上平均为0.40km,竖直方向上平均为0.48km,故而得到了更加精细的空间分布图像。此次地震序列在NNW-NW向呈现优势分布,震源深度主要集中在8～14km,又以10～12km最具优势。主震的震源位置大致为北纬29.69°,东经115.74°,震源深度约10.8km。结合地震序列优势分布、主震震源机制解和震区NE向、NW向断裂发育的构造背景,初步推测本次地震序列的主震可能是由瑞昌盆地内的一条NW向隐伏断层活动引发的,发震断层的性质有待于进一步研究。     

鄂尔多斯盆地中新生代峰值年龄事件及其沉积-构造响应

通过锆石-磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分布及其与粗碎屑沉积建造和地层不整合关系的综合分析,提供了鄂尔多斯盆地中新生代构造事件的年代学约束及其沉积响应特点。印支期构造事件主要发生在230～190Ma,包含215Ma和195Ma两个峰值年龄,在盆地西南缘发育晚三叠世粗碎屑类磨拉石建造及其与上覆地层的平行不整合。燕山期构造事件主要发生在燕山中晚期的150～85Ma,包含145Ma、120Ma和95Ma等3个峰值年龄,在盆地西南缘发育燕山中期的晚侏罗世和早白垩世的粗碎屑类磨拉石建造及其地层间的角度不整合。喜山期构造事件主要表现为盆地区域的多旋回构造隆升,至少包含55Ma、25Ma和5Ma等3个幕次的峰值年龄事件。其中,锆石和磷灰石叠合分布的峰值年龄(145Ma)和其相关的角度不整合、逆冲推覆和区域岩浆活动等,共同指示了鄂尔多斯盆地中新生代的一次关键构造变革事件。