Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

ABSTRACT

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Streamflow elasticity,in a context of climate change,in arid Andean watersheds of north-central Chile

ABSTRACT

Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed.     

Tectonic and climatic controls on late Quaternary bajada sedimentation along Narmada-Son Fault(NSF),Gujarat,Western India

An alluvial bajada has been recognized along a part of the active Narmada-Son Fault(NSF) and confined by the Karjan River on the eastern side and by the Madhumati River on western side.The bajada sequence exposed along the incised cliffs of various north flowing parallel streams has been studied in their proximal,medial and distal part. The sediments are characterized on the basis of grain size,fabric,sedimentary structures,bed geometry and sorting, and lithologs prepared from the mapped cliff sections.Detailed study of sedimentary characteristics,lithofacies analysis and facies associations indicate that sediments are mainly of three types-sediments that were deposited by debris flows and sediment gravity flows,and as extensive bar deposits.Three major aggredational sequences are recognized.Each sequence is composed of coarsening-upward sequence of proximal facies overlain by fining-upward sequence of distal facies.Coarsening upward sequence record periods of tectonic activity related to uplift along the NSF and fan progradation,whereas fining-upward sequence results from tectonic quiescence periods.The presence of rhizocretions,calcium carbonate nodules and calcite sheets within the basal debris flow and sediment gravity flow indicate semi-arid climate,whereas the formation of pedoginized paleosol indicate relatively wetter climate prevailing in the study area.Tectonic activity along the NSF has played dominant role by controlling the geometry and volume of bajada sediments.Climate is found to be responsible for compositional and temporal distribution of bajada sediments.OSL dating suggests that the bajada sediments were deposited during the later part of late Pleistocene.The incision of the sediments is attributed to uplift due to inversion of the lower Narmada basin during the early Holocene.     

共和7.0级地震前地下流体前兆的动态演化特征

使用40个地下流体观测点的资料,对1990年4月26日青海省共和M_S7.0地震的前兆动态特征进行了系统研究.结果表明:(1)地震带内观测点的水氡趋势异常及水化、水位群体异常及频次异常与断层平均形变速率呈同步变化.地下流体群体异常频次的累加值曲线在地震前表现为指数加速变化图形.(2)震源外围240km范围内的水氡中短期趋势上升异常,表现为由震源逐渐向外围扩散的特点.在短临阶段各测点水氡的异常变化基本同步.(3)流体短临前兆出现明显的起伏加剧和层次现象,突出的表现是流量、断层气日变化在临震阶段出现3次加剧,且异常幅度一次高于一次.     

海南岛陆地区重力场变化与地震关系研究

研究反映测区重力场变化的两种方式:重力段差的时序变化图及测区重力场的平面变化图.结果表明,地震的孕育和发生伴随着重力场的变化.     

Sequence stratigraphy of Holocene incised-valley fills and coastal evolution in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain)

This first sedimentary interpretation of two incised-valley fills in the Gulf of Cádiz (southern Spain), which accumulated during the last fourth-order eustatic cycle in response to fluvial incision, changes of sea level, and correlative deposition, relates the filling of the estuarine basins and their barriers with four regional progradation phases, H₁ to H₄. The cases studied are the wave-dominated Guadalete, and the mixed, tide and wave-dominated Odiel-Tinto estuaries. The sequence boundary is a type-1 surface produced during the lowstand of the Last Glacial period ca. 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. No fluvial lowstand deposits were found in the area. Due to rapid transgression the valley fills consist of transgressive and highstand sediments. The maximum landward advance of the estuarine barriers occurred ca. 6500–6000 ¹⁴C yr BP during the maximum of the Flandrian transgression, but there is no evidence of sea level rising appreciably above the present. A large part of the estuaries was filled during H₁ (ca. 6500–4400 ¹⁴C yr BP) but ravinement by shifting tidal inlets destroyed most of the coeval barriers. During the H₂ phase (ca. 4200–2550 ¹⁴C yr BP) sedimentation was favoured by arid conditions and concentrated in the axial estuarine zones and the barriers. Between H₂ and H₃ prevailing winds changed from W to WSW, increasing spit growth to the east and south-east. Progradation of bay-head deltas and flood-plains during H₃ (ca. 2300–800 ¹⁴C yr BP) and H₄ (500 yr ago to the present) further reduced the accommodation space in the largely-filled valleys, and sediment by-passed the estuaries and accumulated in the estuarine barriers as fast-growing spits. Arid conditions and increasing human activity have caused rapid coastal modifications.     

The Loess in the Qinling Mountains and Its Records of Palaeoenvironmental Changes

The Fengzhou loess section is very typical in the Qinling Mountains. The section, which is about 82 m thick and underlain by Neogene red clays, consists of 33 layers of loess and 33 layers of palaeosol. It covers the Brunhes normal polarity zone and Matuyama reversed polarity zone, and the B/ M boundary is located in the middle part of loess layer 8 (L8). The loess of the Matuyama reversed polarity zone records the Jaramillo, Olduvai and Reunion normal polarity subchrons. The boundary between the Matuyama reversed polarity zone and Gauss normal polarity zone (M / Ga) appears on the lithological boundary between loess and Neogene red clays. Loess accumulation in the Fengzhou section started before 2.48 Ma B.P. Based on the stratigraphical structure, the material composition and magnetic susceptibility curve of the Fengzhou loess section, the palaeoclimatic changes during the last 2.48 Ma in the Qinling Mountains are subdivided into 66 cold-dry and warm-humid stages, equivalent to 33 climatic cycles. The     

景泰M_S4.7地震前的定点形变异常

2014年11月15日,在甘肃省白银市景泰县发生MS4.7地震,震源深度10km。在震中附近200km以内,甘肃省地震局共安装架设有14台各类形变观测仪器。本文通过对这些形变观测仪产出的分钟值观测资料做小波分析发现,在地震前1个月内共有11台(套)形变观测仪记录到了异常变化。其中:SSY、TJ、DSQ、SSQ型观测仪记录到异常的同步性非常好;CZB型观测仪记录到的异常比较乱,没有固定的规律。通过对这些异常变化的总结能够为地震预测提供一定的判断依据。     

永安地震台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪观测概况与仪器维护

永安地震台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪为中国地震局台站背景场项目观测仪器,通过对永安台数字化SWY-Ⅱ水位仪运行两年来观测概况的介绍,总结日常观测过程中可能遇到的仪器故障,并探讨解决仪器问题的经验办法,提高仪器维护的技术水平。     

Recent shifts in coastline change and shoreline stabilization linked to storm climate change

Since cuspate coastlines are especially sensitive to changes in wave climate, they serve as potential indicators of initial responses to changing wave conditions. Previous work demonstrates that Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, North Carolina, which are largely unaffected by shoreline stabilization efforts, have become increasingly asymmetric over the past 30 years, consistent with model predictions for coastline response to increases in Atlantic Ocean summer wave heights and resulting changes in the distribution of wave‐approach angles. Historic and recent shoreline change observations for Cape Fear, North Carolina, and model simulations of coastline response to an increasingly asymmetric wave climate in the presence of beach nourishment, produce comparable differences in shoreline change rates in response to changes in wave climate. Results suggest that the effect of beach nourishment is to compensate for – and therefore to mask – natural responses to wave climate change that might otherwise be discernible in patterns of shoreline change alone. Therefore, this case study suggests that the effects of wave climate change on human‐modified coastlines may be detectable in the spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline stabilization activities. Similar analyses of cuspate features in areas where the change in wave climate is less pronounced (i.e. Fishing Point, Maryland/Virginia) and where local geology appears to exert control on coastline shape (i.e. Cape Canaveral, Florida), suggest that changes in shoreline configuration that may be arising from shifting wave climate are currently limited to sandy wave‐dominated coastlines where the change in wave climate has been most pronounced. However, if hurricane‐generated wave heights continue to increase, large‐scale shifts in patterns of erosion and accretion will likely extend beyond sensitive cuspate features as the larger‐scale coastline shape comes into equilibrium with changing wave conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.