基于四维灾体模型的浙江省气象灾害损失年景评价

应用浙江省气象灾情统计年鉴资料,运用四维灾体评估模型,对浙江省的气象灾害损失进行科学评估。浙江省2003—2017年灾害损失年景评价分析结果显示,2004年和2005年为气象灾害损失明显偏重年景,进入2010年以来,2013年为年景最差年份;台风灾害损失在每年浙江省气象灾害损失年景评价中具有非常重要的作用,重大台风事件易造成气象灾害偏重或明显偏重的损失年景。评估结果表明,四维灾体模型下的气象灾害评估较为科学客观。     

共生黑钨矿与石英等多种矿物中流体包裹体的红外显微测温对比研究——以江西西华山石英脉钨矿床为例

西华山钨矿床是一个产于燕山期花岗岩中的大脉型钨矿床。已有百余年的开采史。但在矿床成矿条件和成矿流体性质等方面一直存在不同认识。作者利用红外显微镜及其它相关设备,对西华山矿床不同中段样品中的黑钨矿、锡石、绿柱石、黄铁矿、闪锌矿、石英和萤石中的流体包裹体进行了详细对比研究。结果显示,蚀变花岗岩中造岩石英只见次生气液包裹体,晶洞水晶中只有原生包裹体,而云英岩石英中原生、次生包裹体均较发育。黑钨矿中以原生气液包裹体为主,在早期结晶的黑钨矿中还有较多的硅酸盐熔融包裹体,而晶洞中的黑钨矿和水晶一样——只有原生气液包裹体。绿柱石中除了硅酸盐包裹体外,主要是气液包裹体(多为次生)。其它锡石、黄铁矿、闪锌矿和萤石等都只有气液包裹体(原生或次生)。研究结果表明,西华山钨矿床的初始成矿流体是一种岩浆——热液过渡性流体,尔后才演变成单一的热水溶液,在这一过程中黑钨矿、黄铁矿、闪锌矿、萤石和石英等矿物不断晶出。矿床总的成矿温度大致为700~200℃,压力约为160~200MPa。各种气液包裹体的盐度主要为5.0%~10%Na Cleqv。文中还对这些数据的地质意义以及对脉钨矿床流体包裹体研究和数据解释中的某些问题进行了较深入的讨论。     

Paleo-oil reservoir pyrolysis and gas release in the Yangtze Block imply an alternative mechanism for the Late Permian Crisis

The causes of the global mass extinction that occurred around the Permian–Triassic boundary have been widely studied through the geological record and in various locations. The results show that volcanic activity was a key factor in initiating the crisis during the Late Permian. Compared to other thermal events triggered by volcanic activity, pyrolysis of petroleum in Pre-Permian reservoirs has rarely been suggested as a significant source of the greenhouse gases that caused the mass extinction. In this study, geochemical analysis is carried out of a huge paleo-oil reservoir in the Yangtze Block (YB), South China. The detection of mineral inclusions and pyrobitumens is evidence of rapid pyrolysis of accumulated oil in the Ediacaran reservoir. New evidence from hydrothermal minerals and the presence of domain mesophase in the pyrobitumen suggest that the pyrolysis process occurred abruptly and that greenhouse gases were rapidly released through venting pipes. The dating of such a complex geological event in this old and deeply buried reservoir is inevitably difficult and potentially unreliable. However, cross-validation of the multiple evidence sources, including hydrothermal minerals and domain mesophase, indicates that the rapid oil pyrolysis must have been driven by a major thermal event. Reconstruction of burial and thermal histories suggests that the thermal event was most likely to have been triggered by the Emeishan Large Igneous Province (ELIP), which was in a period of significant volcanic activity during the Late Permian. Massive volumes of gases, including methane, carbon dioxide, and possibly hydrogen sulfide, were released, causing a significant increase in greenhouse gases that may have contributed to global warming and the resulting mass extinction during the Late Permian Crisis (LPC).     

浅谈超声波透射法在灌注桩检测中的应用

目前国内外对于钻孔灌注桩水下混凝土质量检测的方法很多,如低应变反射波法、高应变动测法、单桩竖向静载抗压试验、钻芯法、超声波透射法等,每种检测方法都有它的适用范围和局限性。超声波透射法与其他检测法相比,该方法检测精度高,结果直观可靠,适合大直径桩、超长桩的基桩检测,故在钻孔灌注桩的完整性检测中,得到了广泛的运用,尤其在桥梁灌注桩中,超长、大直径桩几乎都采用了超声波透射法检测。本文对某工地大直径桩进行了超声波透射法检测,通过波形与照片对比,更好地验证了超声波透射法测试超长、大直径取得的效果。     

Inconstancy in predator/prey ratios in Quaternary large mammal communities of Italy, with an appraisal of mechanisms

Constancy in predator/prey ratio (PPR) is a controversial issue in ecological research. Published reports support both constancy and inconstancy of the ratio in animal communities. Only a few studies, however, specifically address its course through time. Here we study the course of predator/prey ratio in communities of large Plio-Pleistocene mammals in Italy. After controlling for taphonomic biases, we find strong support for PPR inconstancy through time. Extinction, dispersal events, and differences in body size trends between predators and their prey were found to affect the ratio, which was distributed almost bimodally. We suggest that this stepwise dynamic in PPR indicates changes in ecosystem functioning. Prey richness was controlled by predation when PPR was high and by resources when PPR was low.     

基于AHP–物元可拓模型的顶板水疏放程度评价

为了科学合理地评价工作面顶板水疏放程度,分析了工作面涌水量预测值和疏放水观测值等要素,构建了顶板水疏放程度评价指标体系,划分了相应的评价等级标准,并利用AHP法确定了各评价指标的权重,建立了顶板水疏放程度的物元可拓模型。利用AHP-物元可拓模型对宁东煤田水文地质条件较为复杂的5个工作面顶板水疏放程度进行了评价,评价结果均为顶板水疏放程度好,并且各工作面已经实现了安全回采,实际情况与评价结果一致。AHP-物元可拓模型可以用于评价顶板水疏放程度,并且可以作为工作面采前水文地质条件评价的参考依据。     

云南水资源公报水资源量评价系统构建与实践

为满足实施最严格水资源管理的要求,根据水资源评价的理论及水资源公报编制的规范提出了云南水资源公报水资源量评价系统的构建思路,研究了降水、地表水资源量、地下水资源量、水资源总量的分析评价具体方法,并开发了云南水资源公报水资源量评价系统。实际应用验证表明,所提出的水资源评价方法是正确的、可行的,系统较好地支撑了云南水资源公报编制工作。     

全国煤层气资源动态评价与可利用性分析

鄂尔多斯盆地东缘大宁−吉县区块深部煤层气勘探开发取得突破对煤层气产业带来重大影响,引起业内广泛关注和跟进。前期一些学者对深部煤层气勘探开发理论技术难点与对策开展了研究,但缺乏对典型气田开发先导试验系统总结。通过深入剖析深部煤层气地质特征与效益开发难点,总结大宁−吉县区块开发先导试验项目取得的进展和成效,明确开发规律并提出效益开发对策。结果表明：(1) 深部煤层具有广覆式发育、含气性好、游离气含量高、保存条件好、煤体结构好、脆性指数高、顶底板封盖性强等地质特征,但微构造发育、渗透性极差、矿化度高等因素制约了深部煤层气效益开发;(2) 不同地质条件下气井生产特征差异较大,通过先导试验落实气井产能和适应性开发技术对策,采用滚动开发模式可有效降低煤层强非均质性带来的开发风险;(3) 开展地质−工程一体化井网优化设计,构建井网与缝网高度弥合的人造气藏,可实现资源动用和采收率最大化;(4) “长水平段+多段多簇+大砂量”的大规模、大排量极限体积压裂技术可增大有效改造体积和井控储量,大幅提高单井产量;(5) 深部煤层气井具有“见气时间短、上产速度快、初期产量高、递减快”的生产特征,可实现短期快速规模上产,但气田长期稳产需持续新井投入;(6) 前期开发成本偏高,实现效益开发需不断提高工程作业效率、降低开发成本。综合认为,深部煤层气资源品质好,可动用性强,具备快速推广复制条件,大宁−吉县区块深部煤层气开发实践可为国内其他区块深部煤层气规模动用提供技术借鉴,对加快深部煤层气规模勘探开发具有重要意义。

     

Controls on the morphological evolution of embayed beaches: Morphometry versus external forcing

The morphological evolution of embayed beaches on a microtidal coast is assumed to largely respond to the degree of exposure to wave conditions, decreasing the mobility with increasing beach indentation (and vice versa). However, the number of sediment arrivals at the beach or the impact of extreme storms can modify this relationship. Here, we present an analysis of 10 embayed beaches along the Catalan coast with different morphometric and sedimentary characteristics to identify the most relevant parameters controlling the morphological evolution of these embayed beaches at the inter-annual and decadal scales. The study was mostly based on LiDAR topographic data collected from 2012 to 2017, aerial photographs from 1945 to 2021, sediment sampling and a long-term series analysis of the forcing parameters (waves, sea level, precipitation and land-use changes). The results show a net loss of volume on all the studied beaches at an inter-annual scale and a general shoreline retreat during the last few decades, suggesting the influence of common processes on the evolution of the studied beaches. Smaller pocket beaches with medium-to-high indentations are more sensitive to changes induced by local factors and show higher variability in the volume of the emerged beach and shoreline position than larger beaches. The most relevant factors influencing the evolution of the studied beaches on a decadal scale were identified as changes in sea level and the reduction in sediment inputs provided by streams due to land-use changes in the drainage basin. At the inter-annual scale, the impact of extreme events is the main factor controlling beach behaviour. These general trends can be opposite locally for beaches that receive large amounts of sediment via longshore transport from adjacent beaches.     

腮腺良性肿瘤容积穿梭CT灌注时间-密度曲线特征分析

目的：探讨容积穿梭CT灌注时间-密度曲线特征结合形态学参数对腮腺良性肿瘤鉴别诊断的价值。方法：收集我院拟诊腮腺肿瘤患者100例,术前均行容积穿梭CT灌注成像检查,术后经手术病理证实。将所得影像数据传送至工作站及pacs系统,观察分析不同病理类型腮腺肿瘤的形态学参数（位置、大小、密度、边界、颈部淋巴结、增强扫描强化幅值）及时间-密度曲线（TDC）类型,计数资料比较采用χ²检验,计量资料符合正态分布采用两独立样本t检验,不符合正态分布的采用秩和检验,检验水准α=0.05。结果：腮腺良性肿瘤（多行性腺瘤、腺淋巴瘤、基底细胞瘤及肌上皮瘤）间的形态学参数无统计学差异;时间-密度曲线类型差异有统计学差异。结论：CT灌注时间-密度曲线特征结合形态学参数对腮腺良性肿瘤的鉴别诊断有重要价值,为患者术式的选择有重要指导意义。