首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

山西地震综合数据处理系统

《山西地震综合数据处理系统》是遵循《国家地震局数据库技术规范》,以PDP-11/23~+小型机与IBM/PC联机为硬件支撑,以网状型数据库为核心,含前期处理、库管理、数据检索、科学计算、分析会商5个子系统的较大型应用软件系统。具有对数据进行收集、录入、预处理、存储、管理、加工及应用等功能。整个系统通过总控菜单程序实现了异种机间上百个模块的调度,使查询-处理一体化。该系统把地震数据库、日常监测数据处理、专家地震预报系统有机地衔接于一体,可直接服务于地震科研和震情会商。该系统的建设是山西省重大科技攻关项目,也是国家地震局的合同制项目。     

1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造

本文根据石油地质勘探的最新资料和元-济人工地震地壳测深剖面相应地段重新解释的结果,分析了邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震断裂。研究结果表明,7.2级地震震中位于束鹿断陷盆地南部次凹的东缘,该次凹发育在由新河断裂等4条缓倾铲形正断裂分制围限地台盖层而成的“斛”状构造块体上,块体之下的地壳中存在两条倾向相反的高角度断裂;地震与断陷主断裂及其控制的断陷盆地并非是简单的对应关系,7.2级地震的发震断裂不是单一的缓倾铲形新河断裂或其下方的高角度的F_3断裂和深部的东断裂,而是它们的组合,且高角度断裂是发震断裂的主要部分     

Quaternary fault segmentation and interaction in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), Vallo di Diano, southern Apennines, Italy

The main structural characteristics of the Caggiano and Polla faults, exposed in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), southern Italy, have been investigated in detail to assess their spatial and temporal properties, and to evaluate their seismogenic potential. These right stepping normal faults show an overlap of about 7 km and an across strike separation of about 4 km. The geometric relationships between the Caggiano and Polla faults, but also the displacement distribution along each fault, demonstrate that they have been strongly interacting throughout the Pleistocene. Nevertheless, geological evidence of Holocene tectonic activity was mainly recognized along the Caggiano Fault (faulted late glacial deposits) and in the southernmost part of the Polla Fault (faulted deposits of probably Late Pleistocene age). This suggests that the Caggiano Fault can be considered as the most tectonically active fault in the Vallo di Diano Fault System. By calculating Coulomb stress changes, we have constrained modes of mechanical interactions between the two faults in a scenario compatible with the 1561 earthquake. This approach allows us to argue that both the Caggiano and the Polla Faults are probably linked at depth, and part of the same seismogenic structure which may be potentially responsible for composite ruptures with magnitude ≥ 6.5.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

Re-Os同位素对峨眉山大火成岩省成因制约的探讨

峨眉山大火成岩省（ELIP）主要由玄武岩、玄武质火山碎屑岩及少量的苦橄岩（包括越南的科马提岩）、长英质岩石以及层状岩体和岩墙组成,其物质来源直接关系到其成因是否与地幔柱活动有关。Re-Os同位素体系是地核、地幔和地壳物质的最佳示踪剂。前人对ELIP内的Re-Os同位素研究表明,低Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．006×10^-9-0．40010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1371～1．403,并提出其与地幔柱活动有关;而高Ti玄武岩的Os含量为0．00410^-9～0．56010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1271～5．19,认为起源于大陆岩石圈地幔或地幔柱上升过程中受到大量岩石圈地幔“混染”（xu JF et al．,2007）;科马提岩的0s含量为1．2410^-9～7．0010^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1251～0．1261,苦橄岩的Os含量为0．3210^-9～2．32910^-9,^187Os／^188Os初始值为0．1233～0．1266,指示苦橄岩和科马提岩均来自亏损地幔源区（Hanski et al．,2004;陈雷等,2007）。本文利用Os含量最低、^187Os／^188Os最高的高Ti玄武岩作为地壳端员,用铁质陨石、原始上地幔（PUM）和亏损地幔（DMM）作为地核和各种地幔端员,分别做二元混合计算,结果显示绝大多数玄武岩和所有苦橄岩及科马提岩均落在地壳和DMM混合曲线附近,并且邻区特提斯洋地幔岩与DMM具有相近的Os含量和^187Os／^188Os组成,据此推测峨眉山火成岩的形成与特提斯洋的活动有关,主要受控于地壳和亏损地幔的相互作用。