A simplified approach for vulnerability assessment in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions: application to Grenoble (France)

Due to the moderate seismic risks in France, the building vulnerability assessment methods developed for high seismic risk countries could not easily be used here because of their cost and the low-risk perception among the public and officials. A light vulnerability assessment method is proposed and tested in Grenoble (France), based on classes and scores provided in the GNDT method but simplified in terms of visual screening and number of structural parameters used. Compared to the RiskUE method, the damage obtained by our approach shows that 90% of buildings have residuals smaller than 0.2, i.e. one grade of the EMS98 damage scale. A large scale survey is devised and conducted among the inhabitants of Grenoble in order to collect the main structural parameters. By comparing the results from the survey to the historical urbanization of Grenoble and to expert surveys performed in two urban districts, the information useful for the light method of vulnerability assessment can be rapidly collected by non-experts reducing substantially the estimate cost. The average damage is then computed using the GNDT formula considering the probable intensities which could be observed in Grenoble (VII and VIII). The average damage reaches 0.4 in the oldest part of Grenoble mainly made of masonry buildings and 0.2 in reinforced concrete suburbs where reinforced concrete predominates. The results are a relative vulnerability assessment that provides useful initial information for the urban zones of Grenoble where the vulnerability is higher. This method can be used to classify the seismic vulnerability in wide seismic-prone regions to a fair degree of accuracy and at low cost.     

Town of Tornio in November 1898: a rare survey of earthquake damage in Finland

This study investigates the effects of the Fennoscandian earthquake that occurred on 4 November 1898 (GMT) on Tornio in Northern Finland. The extra fire inspection conducted in the town on 21, 22 and 23 November 1898 provided insight into the failures caused by this low-magnitude earthquake. The building stock was of timber with masonry stone components. More than 30 heating units sustained damage. The macroseismic intensity in Tornio is estimated at I = 6 (European Macroseismic Scale).     

基于GPS技术的大型结构建筑物动态监测

在回顾传统的结构物震动和位移测量方法的基础上，详细阐述了采用GPS进行大型建筑物动态监测的原理、方法。介绍国内外典型的动态监测实例，提出了监测数据的管理与可视化方案，对未来大型结构建筑物动态监测的技术进行了展望。     

新疆哈密地区地震地质及地震活动性

通过对哈密地区几大活动断裂带、历史地震以及近30年中、小地震活动性的分析，认为哈密地区同时受到南部印度－欧亚板块的碰撞作用与北部西伯利亚－蒙古地区地壳运动的影响，其构造运动兼具西部天山地区和北部蒙古－阿尔泰地区的构造运动的特点，即块体比较完整，只发育大断裂，大断裂之间的中、小断裂不很发育。这种特殊的地震地质和地球动力学环境，决定了哈密地区历史和现今地震活动的特点为：大震复发周期长，低b值，中、小地震活动水平较低等。     

中国大陆部分大震前Hurst指数异常变化特征

对中国大陆1970年以来12组7级以上地震进行了前后10年左右地震时间间隔序列的R／S分析，滑动计算其Hurst指数H值。H值的时间进程显示，9组大震前2年左右H值在较为稳定的背景上开始出现异常变化，其异常特征为“下降－低值－回升”，地震大多发生在H值回升的过程中，具有中、短期前兆意义。H值的异常过程揭示了在大震孕震系统内地震活动从无序向有序的时间演化过程。     

Impacts of the Kuwait Oil Fires on the Mount Qomolangma Region

Mt. Qomolangma (also known as Mt. Everest), the world’s highest mountain, is situated over the world’s highest plateau, the Tibetan Plateau. Because of its height and because of its distance from industrialized areas, the environmental state of the Mt. Qomolangma region can normally be considered “undisturbed”. It is interesting to investigate how this “undisturbed” state has been changing with time and whether it has been influenced by large environmentally disruptive events such as the Kuwait oil fires of 1990 and 1991 (Small, 1991). In order to do this, riv-er water samples were collected from the Rongpu River at Rongpu Temple Station in the summers of 1992 and 1993, as was done in 1975, and aerosol samples were collected in the summer of 1992 at the same station as was done in 1980. River water samples were analyzed using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Aerosol samples were analyzed using proton-induced x-ray emission (PIXE) at the University of Fudan in Shanghai. The results show that the concentrations of chemical species in the river water at Rongpu Temple Station were much higher in the summer of 1992 than they were in 1975 and 1993, and the concentrations of atmospheric chemical species were much higher in 1992 than they were in 1980. The environment of the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma was therefore heavily polluted before and/or during the summer of 1992, possibly due to the Kuwait oil fires in 1990 and 1991.     

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).     

On the stability of a coupled ocean atmosphere system in the presence of wave-CISK

The stability of a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere system similar to the one studied by Hirst with general ocean thermodynamics is investigated in which the atmospheric heating is determined by sea surface temperature anomalies as well as the convergence feedback (low level moisture convergence by the waves themselves). It is shown that the unstable coupled mode found by Hirst (UH mode) is profoundly modified by the convergence feedback. The feedback increases the unstable range of the UH mode and can increase its growth rate several folds. The maximally growing UH mode can become westward propagating for certain strength of convergence feedback. If the convergence feedback strength exceeds a critical value, several new unstable intraseasonal modes are also introduced. These modes are basically ‘advective’ modes. For relatively weak strengths of the convergence feedback the growth rates of these modes are smaller than that of the UH mode. As the atmosphere approaches ‘moist neutral’ state, the growth rates of these modes could become comparable or even larger than that of the UH mode. It is argued that these results explain why the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal is clear in the eastern Pacific but not so in the western Pacific and they may also explain some of the differences between individual ENSO events. Our results also explain the aperiodic behaviour of some coupled numerical models. Importance of this process in explaining the observed aperiodicity of the ENSO phenomenon is indicated.     

我国几次大震及震群活动的时间分维特征

本文根据Mandellrot提出的分维理论,对我国三次大震及四次震群活动的时间分维进行了研究,得到如下结论:1.时间分维的总体特征:大震前分维较低,震后分维升高。2.时间分维的动态变化特征:火震前的分维呈现一总趋势的降维过程,且幅度较大;而震群的时间分维变化较平稳。3.对同一地震序列,起始震级愈低,计算出的分维值愈高;起始震级愈高,计算出的分维值愈低。笔者认为,地震序列起止时间的选取对计算时间分维会产生较大影响。     

缝长,尺度对水压致裂应力测量结果的影响规律

本文从弹性力学、断裂力学的基本理论出发,结合室内实验和野外观测结果研究了尺度、缝长对水压致裂应力测量结果的影响规律。研究结果表明,室内实验样品的孔径比不应大于四分之一,最好小于十分之一,较大的绝对尺度可以使实验结果变得稳定。野外实际测量除了满足上述要求外,裂缝单翼长度不应小于十倍的钻孔半径,否则测不到可靠的封闭压力。据此,进行大尺度水压致裂室内模拟实验对于提高压裂技术,完善水压致裂应力测量理论是非常必要的。