Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

基于分布式大流域径流模型的中国西北黑河流域水文模拟

水资源短缺是中国西北干旱地区长期的问题,区域人口增加、城市化扩张,加之气候变化的影响进一步加剧了西北地区水资源短缺,也使生活用水、灌溉用水、工业用水和维持生态系统稳定的用水危险加剧.采用分布式大流域径流模型(DLBRM)模拟黑河流域水文(中国第二大内陆河,流域面积128 000 km2)来理解区域的冰川和积雪融化水、地下水、地表水、蒸散发等方面的分布,评估气候变化对水文的影响和冰川退缩对中游和下游来水量的影响.模拟结果表明,黑河流域的大部分产流那源于黑河上游地区的祁连山.模拟1990-2000年黑河河流日流量变化结果认为,黑河中游正义峡给下游的供水为10×108m3,其中地表径流占51%,层间流占49%.中游地区沙土具有较高的蒸腾发能力,近一半的地表水被蒸发掉.模拟实践证明,分布式大流域径流模型可以结合气候变化、水资源管理方面的成果,改进流域水文模拟的精度.     

Interference of Multiple Strip Footings on Sand Using Small Scale Model Tests

By using small scale model tests, the interference effect on the vertical load-deformation behavior of a number of equally spaced strip footings, placed on the surface of dry sand, was investigated. At any stage, all the footings were assumed to (i) carry exactly equal magnitude of load, and (ii) settle to the same extent. No tilt of the footing was permitted. The effect of clear spacing (s) among footings on the results was explored. A new experimental setup was proposed in which only one footing needs to be employed rather than a number of footings. The bearing capacity increases continuously with decrease in spacing among the footings. The interference effect becomes further prominent with increase in soil friction angle. In contrast to an increase in the bearing capacity, with decrease in spacing of footings, an increase in the footing settlement associated with the ultimate state of shear failure was observed. The present experimental observations were similar to those predicted by the available theory, based on the method of characteristics. As compared to the theory, the present experimental data, however, indicates much greater effect of interference especially for larger spacing among footings.     

力马河镍矿Re-Os同位素研究

四川力马河镍矿是峨眉山大火成岩省一个重要的岩浆硫化物矿床。本文通过对其主要岩、矿石类型Re、Os及其同位素组成的分析,综合探讨了成矿岩体原始岩浆性质、矿石硫化物成因、成矿机制及Re-Os同位素等时线年龄。结果表明,力马河镍矿不同类型岩矿石样品初始Os同位素组成是不均一的,富硫化物的网脉状矿石及其选纯硫化物Os同位素组成初值差异较小,其等时线年龄为265±35 Ma、与岩体锆石SHRIMP年龄263±3 Ma基本相当;硫化物含量较低的岩、矿石样品间初始Os同位素组成差异较大,其表观等时线年龄大于成矿年龄。分析认为,岩矿样品初始Os同位素组成的不均一是由含较高放射成因187Os丰度的硫化物熔体和含较低放射成因187Os丰度的硅酸盐熔体不同比例混合造成的。混合模型分析表明,硫化物含量超过30％的矿石样品初始187Os/188Os基本接近,硫化物含量低于30％的岩矿石样品初始187Os/188Os随硫化物含量上的不同差异很大,为岩浆硫化物矿床Re-Os等时线年龄可能出现多组年龄解的现象提供了一种可能的解释。成矿岩体中含放射成因187Os丰度最低的岩石样品γOs（t=260Ma）在5左右、Cu/Pd比值在7000左右,表明是基本没有受到地壳混染及硫化物熔离影响的原始岩浆结晶分异产物,估计原始岩浆Os含量在1×10－9左右,为苦橄质岩浆。矿石硫化物Re/Os比值显著高于任何赋矿橄榄岩,γOs（t=260Ma）高达110左右,综合分析揭示了力马河镍矿硫化物为二次熔离成因,模式分析认为,矿石硫化物是由原始岩浆经历R=2000左右的硫化物熔离后、其亏损岩浆再经R=200左右的硫化物熔离形成,与二次熔离相对应,成矿岩浆也经历了两次混染作用,分别为上、下地壳7％左右的混染。     

Distinct brief major events in the Karoo large igneous province clarified by new Ar/Ar ages on the Lesotho basalts

Recent mineral separate ages obtained on the Karoo large igneous province (southern Africa) suggest that the province was built by several distinct magmatic pulses over a rather long period on the order of 5–6 Ma concerning the main erupted volume [Jourdan, F., Féraud, G., Bertrand, H., Kampunzu, A.B., Tshoso, G., Watkeys, M.K., Le Gall., B., 2005. The Karoo large igneous province: Brevity, origin, and relation with mass extinction questioned by new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age data, Geology 33, 745–748]. Although this apparently atypical province is dated in more detail compared to many other large igneous provinces, volumetrically important areas still lack sufficient high-quality data. The timing of the Karoo province is crucial as this event is correlated with the breakup activity of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Lesotho basalts represent a major lava sequence of the province, but have not yet been precisely dated by systematic analysis of mineral separates. We analyzed plagioclase separates from five lava flows encompassing the complete 1.4-km-thick Lesotho sequence from top to bottom using the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method. We obtained five plateau and mini-plateau ages statistically indistinguishable and ranging from 182.3 ± 1.6 to 181.0 ± 2.0 Ma (2σ). We derived an apparent maximum duration for this event of  0.8 Ma by neglecting correlated errors embedded in the age uncertainties.

A critical review of previous ages obtained on the Lesotho sequence [Duncan R.A., Hooper, P.R., Rehacek, J., Marsh, J.S., Duncan, A.R., 1997. The timing and duration of the Karoo igneous event, southern Gondwana. Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 18127–18138] shows that groundmass analyses are unreliable for high-resolution geochronology, due to alteration and ³⁹Ar recoil effects. Discrepancy between our ages and a previous plagioclase age at  184 Ma obtained by the later workers is tentatively attributed to the heterogeneity of the monitor used and/or cryptic excess ⁴⁰Ar. The current age database suggests that at least three temporally and spatially distinct brief major events (the Lesotho and southern Botswana lava piles and the Okavango dyke swarm) are so far recognized in the Karoo province. Identification of brief and volumetrically important Karoo magmatic events allows detecting the migration of the Karoo magmatism and potentially the stress regime that affected the southern African lithosphere at this time. A filtered compilation of 60 ages obtained with homogeneous intercalibrated standards suggests a shorter duration for the main pulses of the magmatism between 3 and 4.5 Ma, compared to a whole province duration of  10 Ma, between  182 and  172 Ma.     

Geology and age of the Glikson impact structure,Western Australia

The Glikson structure is an aeromagnetic and structural anomaly located in the Little Sandy Desert of Western Australia (23°59'S, 121°34′E). Shatter cones and planar microstructures in quartz grains are present in a highly deformed central region, suggesting an impact origin. Circumferential shortening folds and chaotically disposed bedding define a 19 km-diameter area of deformation. Glikson is located in the northwestern Officer Basin in otherwise nearly flat-lying sandstone, siltstone and conglomerate of the Neoproterozoic Mundadjini Formation, intruded by dolerite sills. The structure would not have been detected if not for its strong ring-shaped aeromagnetic anomaly, which has a 10 km inner diameter and a 14 km outer diameter. We interpret the circular magnetic signature as the product of truncation and folding of mafic sills into a ring syncline. The sills most likely correlate with dolerites that intrude the Boondawari Formation ～25 km to the north, for which we report a SHRIMP U?–?Pb baddeleyite and zircon age of 508?±?5 Ma, providing a precise older limit for the impact event that formed the Glikson structure.     

陇中黄土高原LAS在非均匀下垫面的观测优势及其在区域陆面模式验证中的初步应用

目前通用的通量观测技术涡动相关仪（EC）在区域陆面模式验证中存在能量不闭合和空间代表性有限的问题,寻求改进EC观测热通量的新技术是提高陆面模式验证效果的关键环节,大孔径闪烁仪（LAS）的出现有效改善了这一现状。基于黄土高原定西站2010年1月和6月的同步综合观测资料以及目前比较有代表性的陆面过程模式CLM的模拟数据,分析研究了LAS对EC观测地表能量不平衡问题的改进以及LAS对EC在区域陆面模式验证中的提高,结果表明：LAS可有效解决EC观测存在的地表能量不平衡问题,提高EC的地表能量闭合度,在非均匀下垫面LAS观测优势突出;利用LAS观测的感热通量进行区域陆面模式的验证,能够很大程度地避免EC能量不闭合和空间尺度不匹配在验证中造成的偏差,LAS观测更适合于大尺度模拟的验证,验证效果更好。     

基于GPS技术的大型结构建筑物动态监测

在回顾传统的结构物震动和位移测量方法的基础上，详细阐述了采用GPS进行大型建筑物动态监测的原理、方法。介绍国内外典型的动态监测实例，提出了监测数据的管理与可视化方案，对未来大型结构建筑物动态监测的技术进行了展望。     

Temperature dependence of large-scale water-retention curves: a case study

A local-scale model for temperature-dependence of water-retention curves may be applicable to large scales. Consideration of this temperature dependence is important for modeling unsaturated flow and transport in the subsurface in numerous cases. Although significant progress has been made in understanding and modeling this temperature effect, almost all the previous studies have been limited to small scales (on the order of several centimeters). Numerical experiments were used to investigate the possibility of extending a local-scale model for the temperature-dependence of water retention curves to large scales (on the order of meters). Temperature effects on large-scale hydraulic properties are of interest in many practical applications. Numerical experiment results indicate that the local-scale model can indeed be applicable to large-scale problems for special porous media with high air entry values. A typical porous medium of this kind is the porous tuff matrix in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the proposed geologic disposal site for national high-level nuclear wastes. Whether this finding can approximately hold for general cases needs to be investigated in future studies.     

中国土壤有机质含量变异性与空间尺度的关系

以中国土种志资料为基础,分析了土壤有机质含量变异与空间尺度的关系及土类内和土类间的变异程度,探讨了不同空间尺度单元下,土壤有机质平均含量与土壤性质的相关性。结果表明,以土壤剖面为单元,随着土壤剖面数的增加,土壤有机质含量的变异系数增大;行政区域尺度单元内部土壤有机质变异程度大于单元间土壤有机质含量的变异程度。以土壤分类单元为空间单元,土类内的有机质含量变异程度小于土类间的变异程度。随着统计单元空间尺度的增大,土壤有机质含量与土壤性质之间的相关性减弱。因此,采用网格法或行政区划分空间区域,获得空间区域单元内土壤有机质含量或贮量的精确估算需要较多的剖面,但外推至数据不足的空间区域时,估算的不确定较小;采用土壤分类单元为空间区域单元,结果则相反。