1988年澜沧—耿马大震序列剪切应力值随时间的变化与强余震预报

1988年11月6日澜沧——耿马大震后,在地震现场,利用澜沧地震台记录的2.5≤M_L≤4.9级地震,以清晰的直达P波初动半周期及时估算剪切应力强度,追踪它们随时间的调整变化,并直接用于对后续强余震的预测和序列发展趋势估计。     

澜沧—耿马震区构造能流图象研究

根据澜沧－耿马震区构造能流图象的研究，其结果表明震产生了两条长度分别为４２公里、５５公里的北西向主破裂，同时产生了几北东－近南北向的次级破裂。通过与宏观资料的对比，可观看出构造能流图象和震害分布具有较好的一致性。     

High frequency fall-off of source spectra using Q -free spectra estimation

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓｐｅｃｔｒａｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｍａｙｂｅｔｒａｃｅｄｂａｃｋｔｏｌａｔｅ１９６０ｓ（Ａｋｉ,１９６７;Ｂｒｕｎｅ,１９７０;Ｈａｎｋｓ,１９７９）．Ｆｏｒｉｔｓｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｃｅｉｎｓｔｒ...     

澜沧-耿马地震带下一个强震活跃期的初步研究

在震前对澜沧—耿马地震带大震复发周期为47年的研究基础上,确认滇西南地区出现了预释放加速段、一个孕震区和显著地震有序向源迁移的演变过程等这些大震孕育并进入中短期阶段的标志。并应用这些特征,对1988年11月6日的澜沧7.6级、耿马7.2级地震进行了预测,同时对澜沧—耿马地震带下一个新的强震活跃期的时间和可能发震的断层作了估计,提出了强震活跃期中大震孕育短临阶段预测可参考的思路。     

Distribution of seismic intensities of the November 6, 1988, Lancang-Gengma earthquakes and their surface ruptures in Yunnan Province, China

On November 6, 1988, two earthquakes with magnitude>7 occurred on the Lancang-Gengma fault zone in south-west China. The extensive destruction and loss of lives resulted mainly from widespread collapse of unreinforced masonry and mud brick structures; the maximum preliminary intensity of the Lancang earthquakes was IX on the Chinese scale, which is similar to the Modified Mercall scale, and the highest preliminary intensity of the Gengma earthquake was probably X. The surface manifestation of tectonic activity of the Lancang earthquake was the occurrence of the earthquake-related extensional ground cracks and small fault scarps in the epicentral region. The cracks with small fault scarps occurred mainly in four relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear zones that ranged from a few hundred meters to 6 km in length. The area within which the cracks and small scarps occurred is 35 km long by 3 km wide. The maximum net throw and the dextral horizontal offset were 1.5m and 1.4m, respectively. Clear evidence of new surface faulting caused by the Gengma earthquake includes a series of relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear ground crack zones and a 5 km long section of fault scarps. The total length of the surface rupture zones of the Gengma earthquakes is about 24 km, with 3.5m maximum net throw and 3m maximum right-lateral slip. Both earthquakes were associated with surface faulting showing a combination of normal and right lateral motion. The distribution of seismic intensities and surface rupture characteristics of these two earthquakes are discussed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 344–353, 1991. The research project was performed out under the direction of Professors. Xingyuan Ma and Yuntai Chen, and the field investigation was performed with help of Kui Jiang and Junchang Zhang of the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province. Here the authors express great appreciation.     

1988年澜沧—耿马地震前震源区应力状态分析

利用1973年1月1日至1988年11月5日云南区域地震台网记录的地震资料,获得了1988年澜沧—耿马地震前震源及附近区域多个地震活动性参数的空间分布图像,初步揭示了震前震源区应力状态.结果表明:澜沧—耿马地震之前,研究区地震活动性参数分布具有显著的空间不均匀性特征.澜沧7.6级地震震源区以低于0.7的异常低b值、低a值以及整个研究区最短的局部复发间隔Tl值为特征,表明震源所在断裂段在震前已处于高应力闭锁状态,具有发生大震的应力条件.     

澜沧、耿马地震前的复发周期时空扫描

继文献〔1〕和①,本文作者以1988年11月6日云南省澜沧、耿马地区发生的7.6、7.2级地震为例,采用复发周期时空扫描的方法、对地震预报中短期预报的方法进行了追踪研究。结果表明大震前的异常是清楚的。异常分为两个阶段:第一阶段是外围异常阶段,震前逐步形成外围异常、形如围空、然后是外围异常逐步消失;第二阶段为极震区附近异常的逐步增强、扩大与稳定直至发震。看来采用复发周期时空扫描的方法是可以预报某些强震的。     

Scaling of stress drop and high-frequency fall-off of source spectra

It has been observed for a long time that the high-frequency fall-off constant of source spectra is about 2 for "large" earthquakes and about 3 for "small" earthquakes. For earthquakes between "large" and "small", the highfrequency fall-off constant is not an integer and varies with the size of the earthquake. In this article such a variation is explained in the perspective of the scaling of stress drop, which proposes a new approach to the study of the scaling of stress drop using seismic data with lower quality of completeness and high-frequency characteristics. The study on the source spectra of the aftershocks of the 1988 Lancang-Gengma, Yunnan, China earthquake shows that the high-frequency fall-off of source spectra and its variation with the size of earthquake can be well explained by the model that for "large" earthquakes the stress drop is a constant while for "small" earthquakes the stress drop increases with the size of the earthquake.     

澜沧,耿马震区断层启动系数与大震序列发震断裂研究

在分析构造应力场最大主应力方向和断层走向之间的夹角与断层错动关系的基础上，同时还考虑断层的几何特征，错动性质以及应力场状态等因素，提出以断怪启动系数Ｋ值来定量表征处在相同构造尖力环境中，不同走向的活动断裂的活动程度，并以１９８８年澜沧－耿马大震序鲁为例，计算了大震和强余震震源机制节面的断层启动系数，对震区主要活动断裂在近似情况下也计算了断层启动系数，以此在结合地震破裂带等资料对大震和强余震的发震断     

A model of nonuniform fracture system for Langcang-Gengma earthquake sequence and elasto-plastic computation method

Based on the observation data, it is found that the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is resulting from the propagation of a nonuniform fracture system in which the lengths and strikes of fractures are different from each other, the stress field and medium condition around fractures are also heterogeneous. Therefore, a mechanical model simulating suitably the fracture processes of the Lancang-Gengma earthquake sequence is suggested in this paper. The fracture criterions and computation method for elastic fracture and elasto-plastic fracture are studied. The stress intensity factor, strain energy release rate and J-integral are evaluated respectively. The forward and inverse method jointing a variety of observation data to determine the earthquake fracture processes is also developed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 463–471, 1992. This project was sponsored by the Chinese Jonit Seismological Science Foundation.