基于小波神经网络耦合模型对云南星云湖富营养化气象驱动因子的分析

气象因子是影响湖泊富营养化的重要因素,而湖泊富营养化对人群健康、生态系统和社会经济等均有负面影响.本文基于统计资料及遥感数据,结合Morlet小波分析和BP多层前馈神经网络(BP神经网络)构建了不同时间尺度下的小波神经网络耦合模型,分析了19862011年云南星云湖水华强度变化与月降雨量、月平均气温、月平均风速、月日照...     

西台吉乃尔盐湖原卤水历年来钾硼锂镁等元素品位变化及未来变化趋势预测

研究统计了西台吉乃尔盐湖(以下简称西台)自开发以来原卤水中钾硼锂镁各元素品位变化,利用K+,Na+,Mg2+/Cl-,SO2-4-H2 O五元体系298K介稳相图研究了主要元素之间相对含量的变化关系.根据西台开发现状建立数学模型,预测了未来10年钾硼锂元素品位变化趋势,为西台盐湖钾硼锂镁等资源的开发和综合利用提供依据.     

Ecosystem health assessment of Honghu Lake Wetland of China using artificial neural network approach

Honghu Lake, located in the southeast of Hubei Province, China, has suffered a severe disturbance during the past few decades. To restore the ecosystem, the Honghu Lake Wetland Protection and Restoration Demonstration Project (HLWPRDP) has been implemented since 2004. A back propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) approach was applied to evaluatinig the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. And the effectiveness of the HLWPRDP was also assessed by comparing the ecosystem health before and after the project. Particularly, 12 ecosystem health indices were used as evaluation parameters to establish a set of three-layer BP ANNs. The output is one layer of ecosystem health index. After training and testing the BP ANNs, an optimal model of BP ANNs was selected to assess the ecosystem health of the Honghu Lake wetland. The result indicates that four stages can be identified based on the change of the ecosystem health from 1990 to 2008 and the ecosystem health index ranges from morbidity before the implementation of HLWPRDP (in 2002) to middle health after the implementation of the HLWPRDP (in 2005). It demonstrates that the HLWPRDP is effective and the BP ANN could be used as a tool for the assessment of ecosystem health.     

兴凯湖沉积物磁化率和色度反映的28kaBP以来区域古气候环境演化

对兴凯湖长269 cm的沉积岩心的研究结果显示:沉积物的色度和磁化率特征可以较好地反映区域气候环境变化。沉积物明度分别与红度、磁化率、黏土和有机质含量之间及磁化率与黏土之间有很好的相关性;红度高值与明度低值对应暖湿气候环境,磁化率低值反映沉积物较粗的较低湖面,对应冷干气候。28480~26160 cal.aBP,湖区处于温湿气候时期;22880~18170 cal.aBP,岩心孢粉浓度很低,流域处于末次盛冰期疏桦林草原环境;18170~12650 cal.aBP处于Bφlling/Older Dryas/Allerφd暖期。岩心深度90~78 cm段,对应于新仙女木期;11500~4570 cal.aBP,进入全新世暖期,其中8000~5000 cal.aBP,本区处于全新世大暖期(气候适宜期);4570~1470 cal.aBP气候变为凉干;1470 cal.aBP以来,流域又变为暖湿气候环境,同时,人类活动逐渐增强造成水土流失加剧。     

太湖和洪泽湖大银鱼(Protosalanx hyalocranius)体内元素的积累特征及产地判别

应用电感耦合等离子质谱仪分析技术分别研究了江苏太湖和洪泽湖水域大银鱼体内12种元素的生物积累特征.结果表明,两水域大银鱼体内元素含量的总体范围为:钙(Ca)9443-22150、钠(Na)1107-2418、镁(Mg)876.8-1231、钾(K)4662-9472、锌(Zn)74-135.8、锰(Mn)6.80-21.08、硒(Se)2.082-6.261、铜(Cu)0.489-2.704、铁(Fe)未检出-24.19、钻(Co)未检出-4.84、砷(As)0.123-0.587 mg,kg干重;镉(cd)未检出;必需元素丰富.太湖水域大银鱼中的Na、K、Cu、As、Se 的含量显著地高于洪泽湖水域大银鱼.而后者体内Ca、Mg、Zn的含量显著地高于前者.主成分分析显示出两水域鱼体多元素生物积累的整体"指纹"地理差异非常明显.在此基础上推导出了通过元素"指纹"来区分两地大银鱼个体的判别函数,正确率达100%.两水域大银鱼中毒性元素As和Cd的含量都远低于国家相应的限量标准.     

Outburst risk of barrier lakes in Sichuan,China

34 barrier lakes induced by earthquake have been formed by wedged debris on the river channels after a massive earthquake happening on May 12 in Sichuan, China. Among them, the Tangjiashan Barrier Lake is the largest one. It faces very urgent risk of dam breaking when water level reaches the top and begins overflow in case of storm rainfalls and continually aftershocks, threatening already devastated cities and villages with about 1.5 million people downstream. The outburst of a similar barrier lake occurred in the Minjiang River in 1933, causing a catastrophic flood. Risk analysis indicates that not all barrier lakes are highly dangerous. Only those lakes with very high dams and water to be filled up in short period need to be dealt with immediately.     

A multi-scale 3-D crust velocity model in the Hefei-Chao Lake area around the southern segment of Tanlu Fault Zone

Regional high-precision velocity models of the crust are an important foundation for examining seismic activity, seismogenic environments, and disaster distribution characteristics. The Hefei-Chao Lake area contains the main geological units of Hefei Basin, with thick sediments and the Chao Lake depression. Several major concealed faults of the southern NNE-trending Tanlu Fault Zone cross this area. To further explore the underground distribution characteristics of the faults and their tectonic evolutionary relationship with adjacent tectonic units, this study used ambient noise data recorded by a seismic array deployed in Hefei City and Chao Lake, constructing a 3-D velocity model at the depth of 1–8 km. Then a multi-scale high-resolution 3-D velocity model of this area was constructed by this new upper crustal velocity model with the previous middle and lower crustal model. The new model reveals that a high-velocity belt is highly consistent with the strike of the Tanlu Fault Zone, and a low-velocity sedimentary characteristic is consistent with the Hefei Basin and Chao Lake depression. The distribution morphology of high and low velocity bodies shows that the sedimentary pattern of Hefei-Chao Lake area is closely related to the tectonic evolution of the Tanlu Fault Zone since the Mesozoic. This study also identifies multiple low-velocity anomalies in the southeastern Hefei City. We speculate that strong ground motion during the 2009 Feidong earthquake (magnitude of 3.5) was related to amplification by the thick sediments in the Hefei Basin. We also discuss further applications of multi-scale high-resolution models of the shallow layer to strong ground motion simulations in cities and for earthquake disaster assessments.     

从东江调水后契爷石水库的水质和浮游植物群落结构特征

本文比较了太湖梅梁湾敞水区2004年秋季渔汛期刀鲚(Coilia ectenes)和间下鱵(Hyporhamphus intermedius)的食性,同时对不同食物的重要性、选择性以及两种鱼类食物的重叠进行了分析.结果表明,秋季刀鲚、间下鱵的食物主要由浮游甲壳动物、鱼和昆虫等组成.镖水蚤中的指状许水蚤(Schmackeria inopinus)是刀鲚最重要的食物,而间下鱵最重要的食物是裸腹溞(Moina sp.),而且摄食鱼和昆虫的比例远高于刀鲚.刀鲚和间下鱵对个体较大的指状许水蚤的选择性都比较高,对个体较小、而在太湖密度很高的象鼻溞(Bosmina spp.)都表现出主动回避.刀鲚与间下鱵的食物重叠系数较高,表明对竞争比较激烈,但要完全了解这两种鱼类的竞争关系,还要对它们在太湖的分布,不同发育阶段和不同季节的摄食情况进行详细的调查研究.     

混合禁忌搜索算法在湖泊富营养化评价中的应用

本文提出了幂函数加和型湖泊富营养化评价指数公式,同时将禁忌搜索算法与模拟退火、免疫进化算法有机地结合起来,建立了求解优化问题的混合禁忌搜索算法(HTS).将此算法用于评价指数公式的参数优化,从而建立起湖泊富营养化综合评价模型,为湖泊富营养化评价和预测提供了一条有效的途径.将优化好的湖泊富营养化模型用于东湖富营养化评价的实例研究,结果表明此评价模型能较好地反映湖泊富营养化水平,并具有较好的通用性和实用性.     

无锡五里湖环境综合整治对旅游价值的影响评估

条件价值法是目前环境经济价值货币化评估中最为广泛应用的方法.以无锡市五里湖环境综合整治为例,在对条件价值法回顾总结的基础上,通过对受益周边地区居民及外地游客的面对面直接问卷调查,对周边旅游环境的改善所带来的旅游支付意愿及影响因素进行了评估和分析,结果表明:(1)游客对五里湖综合整治后总的支付意愿为2.49亿元/年,比整治前多0.68亿元/年,占当地旅游总收入的1.49%;(2)游客的支付意愿与其收入成正比,与其年龄也基本为正相关关系,而与其受教育程度的关系比较复杂;(3)游客对五里湖景区满意度表现最差的是娱乐设施,其次是购物、住宿的便利性和水面的表观形象,表现最好的是空气质量和其安静的氛围.本文最后对本次采用的调查方法与国内外广泛应用的双边界二分式CVM进行了有益的对比和讨论,并对环境综合整治为当地带来的经济和社会绩效提出了期望,以期为其相应的政策措施的制定和环境资源资本的运作及管理提供理论依据.