黑河干流山区流域月径流计算模型

西北内陆河山区流域天然来水量的准确预测对于维持区域可持续发展和生态环境的保护具有重大的意义。鉴于这些山区流域地形、地貌、植被景观复杂，观测站点稀疏，建立了6种月平均流量的计算模型，效果都很好。所进行的数值试验表明，山区平均月降水量、月平均气温、平均月蒸发量和出山月平均流量相互之间存在复杂的非线性关系。降水和气温都是影响月蒸发力和平均流量的一个综合因素。气温是影响含有冰雪融水的山区流域产流的一个极为重要的因素，但降水、气温物蒸发力不足以完全综合反映产流过程，应该探讨加入新的因子。     

Interaction of metamorphism, deformation and exhumation in large convergent orogens

Coupled thermal‐mechanical models are used to investigate interactions between metamorphism, deformation and exhumation in large convergent orogens, and the implications of coupling and feedback between these processes for observed structural and metamorphic styles. The models involve subduction of suborogenic mantle lithosphere, large amounts of convergence (≥ 450 km) at 1 cm yr^?1, and a slope‐dependent erosion rate. The model crust is layered with respect to thermal and rheological properties — the upper crust (0–20 km) follows a wet quartzite flow law, with heat production of 2.0 μW m^?3, and the lower crust (20–35 km) follows a modified dry diabase flow law, with heat production of 0.75 μW m^?3. After 45 Myr, the model orogens develop crustal thicknesses of the order of 60 km, with lower crustal temperatures in excess of 700 °C. In some models, an additional increment of weakening is introduced so that the effective viscosity decreases to 10¹⁹ Pa.s at 700 °C in the upper crust and 900 °C in the lower crust. In these models, a narrow zone of outward channel flow develops at the base of the weak upper crustal layer where T≥600 °C. The channel flow zone is characterised by a reversal in velocity direction on the pro‐side of the system, and is driven by a depth‐dependent pressure gradient that is facilitated by the development of a temperature‐dependent low viscosity horizon in the mid‐crust. Different exhumation styles produce contrasting effects on models with channel flow zones. Post‐convergent crustal extension leads to thinning in the orogenic core and a corresponding zone of shortening and thrust‐related exhumation on the flanks. Velocities in the pro‐side channel flow zone are enhanced but the channel itself is not exhumed. In contrast, exhumation resulting from erosion that is focused on the pro‐side flank of the plateau leads to ‘ductile extrusion’ of the channel flow zone. The exhumed channel displays apparent normal‐sense offset at its upper boundary, reverse‐sense offset at its lower boundary, and an ‘inverted’ metamorphic sequence across the zone. The different styles of exhumation produce contrasting peak grade profiles across the model surfaces. However, P–T–t paths in both cases are loops where P_max precedes T_max, typical of regional metamorphism; individual paths are not diagnostic of either the thickening or the exhumation mechanism. Possible natural examples of the channel flow zones produced in these models include the Main Central Thrust zone of the Himalayas and the Muskoka domain of the western Grenville orogen.     

Structure of the Mérida Andes, Venezuela: relations with the South America–Caribbean geodynamic interaction

For over 50 years, several models based on diverse geologic concepts and variable quality of data have been proposed to explain the major structure and history of the Mérida Andes (MA), in western Venezuela. Lately, this chain growth and associated flexural basins deepening have been related to incipient type-A subductions of either polarity, accounting for the across-chain asymmetry. However, these recent models have not well integrated the present tectonically active setting driven by neighboring major plate interactions. At present, this chain exhibits ongoing strain partitioning where cumulative right-lateral slip along chain axis is as much as half of, or about the same, as the transverse shortening since late Miocene, thus implying that the NNE-directed Maracaibo block extrusion with respect to the South America (SA) plate is not a secondary feature. Consequently, this paper discusses some limitations exhibited by the SE-directed continental subduction models—Maracaibo crust underthrusting the Mérida Andes—in the light of available geological and geophysical data. Besides, it is herein proposed that the Mérida Andes structuration is related to a NW-directed, gently dipping, incipient type-A subduction, where chain growth and evolution are similar to those of a sedimentary accretionary wedge (i.e., Barbados), but at crustal scale and with ongoing strain partitioning. This continental subduction is the SE portion of a major orogenic float that also comprises the Perijá range and the Santa Marta block.     

Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough

We have reexamined reports indicating that slow deformation occurred before the great Japan earthquakes of 1944 (Tonankai) and 1946 (Nankaido) and find that the observations are well founded. Although no quantitative models have previously been proposed to explain all of the relevant data we show that they are satisfied by a simple model for both earthquakes. The model, based on known properties of subduction zones, has slow slip on the subduction interface in an area deeper than the seismic rupture. If this model is correct and a similar physical situation holds for an anticipated Tokai earthquake, existing instruments will be able to reveal the pre-slip in real time. While differences among the deformation time series at different sites will provide strong constraints on the slow rupture propagation, these differences could result in delaying the recognition of a coherent event.     

Functional series TARMA modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion

The non‐stationary Functional Series time‐dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA) modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion is considered. Full Functional Series TARMA models, capable of modelling both resonances and antiresonances, are examined for the first time via a novel mixed parametric/non‐parametric estimation scheme, and critical comparisons with pure TAR and recursive ARMA (RARMA)‐recursive maximum likelihood (RML) adaptive filtering type modelling are made. The study is based upon two California ground motion signals: a 1979 El Centro accelerogram and a 1994 Pacoima Dam accelerogram. A systematic analysis, employing various functional subspaces and model orders, leads to two Haar function based models: a TARMA(2,4)₈ model for the El Centro case and a TARMA(6,2)₁₀ model for the Pacoima Dam case. Both models are formally validated and their simulation (synthesis) capabilities are demonstrated via Monte Carlo experiments focusing on important time domain signal characteristics. The Functional Series TAR/TARMA models are shown to achieve parsimony, as well as superior accuracy and simulation capabilities, over their RARMA counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

基于GIS的地下水模拟可视化系统开发的初步探讨

系统开发的目的是克服GIS时空分析能力的不足，实现地下水模型与MAPGIS的耦合集成，在集成的基础上构建系统的可视化功能，在GIS平台上为地下水模拟的全过程提供一个统一高效的计算机环境。系统开发采用面向对象的软件开发方法，对各种地下水模型进行分解、抽象，建立基本的C＋＋类类型，每个模型都是基本类及其派生类对象的聚集类。系统实现的技术途径是以MAPGIS的二次开发函数作为“后台”支持，以VC＋＋作为编程工具，在充分利用MAPGIS的可视化功能的基础上，借助于OpenGL并应用科学可视化技术开发更能满足地下水模拟需要的可视化功能。     

Short-Term Ozone Forecasting with a Network Model System during Summer 1999

Within the framework of the Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) four working groups in Germany (University of Stuttgart, University of Cologne, Research Center Karlsruhe, German Weather Service) formed a network developing a model system for chemistry transport calculations on different scales. The network was optimized, based on each module and combined for the different interfaces in order to perform daily preoperational ozone forecasts and its precursors at the German Weather Service in summer 1999 (May through September). The setup of the model system, the interfaces and changes of each module are described. The results of the whole preoperational episode are displayed and discussed. Main efforts were done analyzing the model climate statistics and the verification of the predictions with an extensive data base of observations at stations in Germany. The results of this extensive verification demonstrate the relatively good performance of the entire forecast system.     

1690年以来全球非偶极子磁场的变化特征

根据J Bloxham和A Jackson地磁场模型，计算和分析了1690-1990年期间非偶极子磁异常的变化特片。结构表明，1690年以来一直存在的变化磁异常有7个，在一定时期内出现的磁异常有3个，它们是1830年以后出现的北太平洋负磁异常、1850年以后出现的东南太平洋负磁异常和1690-1900年期间在南太平洋地区出现的负磁异常。各个磁异常的强度和中心位置随时间变化，变化趋势各不相同。与根据IGRF模型计算的20世纪的磁异常变化比较，除非洲负磁异常外，两种模型得出的其它磁异常在同一时段内的变化趋势基本一致。