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991.
基于NMR的库区滑坡三维稳定性数值模拟 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
传统的勘探、测试手段, 难以获取可靠的滑坡岩土体水文参数, 直接影响滑坡研究的建模、评价工作.应用核磁共振找水方法并结合其他方法建立滑坡三维地质模型, 并提出基于NMR技术的库区滑坡稳定性研究思路.以赵树岭滑坡进行测试, 获取了岩土体的水文地质参数数据, 确定出该滑坡具有两层地下水, 上部潜水含水层, 下部微承压含水层; 具有两层滑面.该技术的分析结果与钻孔数据吻合较好, 可为建立符合实际的滑坡模型提供可靠依据.利用自编渗流-应力耦合有限元程序和ANSYS进行了145 m、175 m及175m降至145 m滑坡的稳定性模拟.结果表明: 145 m及175 m水位, 该滑坡整体处于稳定状态, 前缘随水位抬升局部破坏范围扩大; 175 m降到145 m时, 坡整体稳定性接近极限状态.且滑坡后缘局部位置出现小规模变形破坏的可能. 相似文献
992.
993.
区域土壤侵蚀定量研究的国内外进展 总被引:27,自引:0,他引:27
由于水土保持宏观决策的需要、土壤侵蚀学科自身的进步和全球变化研究的促进,过去的10多年来,国内外研究者对区域尺度土壤侵蚀研究给予了高度重视。已经开展的主要研究包括:全球和区域(包括国家尺度)土壤侵蚀调查、区域土壤侵蚀过程和尺度效应、区域土壤侵蚀因子和区域土壤侵蚀模型等。将区域土壤侵蚀作为现代陆地地表过程的一部分,充分考虑全球变化的影响,集成土壤侵蚀研究成果与遥感和GIS技术,开发分布式区域土壤侵蚀模型,成为区域土壤侵蚀定量评价研究的基本趋势。在对国内外区域土壤侵蚀定量评价研究评述的基础上,提出我国近期在区域土壤侵蚀方面研究的重点问题为:区域土壤侵蚀过程及其尺度效应的量化描述、区域土壤侵蚀模型开发、区域土壤侵蚀动态模拟与趋势预测、区域土壤侵蚀与全球变化关系研究和区域土壤侵蚀数据处理与管理方法。 相似文献
994.
There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least. 相似文献
995.
In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme. 相似文献
996.
DING Yihui SHI Xueli LIU Yiming LIU Yan LI Qingquan QIAN Yongfu MIAO Manqian ZHAI Guoqing GAO Kun 《大气科学进展》2006,23(3)
A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions. 相似文献
997.
LI Xiang LIN Hui 《地球空间信息科学学报》2006,9(1):65-70
Introduction Withthedramaticdevelopmentofpositioning andtelecommunicationtechnologies,lotsoftraj ectorydataofmovingvehiclescanbecalculated,collected,andtransferred.Inthemeanwhile,thisdevelopmentandtheavailabilityoftrajectory datahavealsomotivatedresearche… 相似文献
998.
The relationship of N2O distributions with the Arctic vortex breakup is first analyzed with a probability distribution function (PDF) analysis. The N2O concentration shows different distributions between the early and late vortex breakup years. In the early breakup years, the N2O concentration shows low values and large dispersions after the vortex breakup, which is related to the inhomogeneity in the vertical advection in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere. The horizontal diffusion coefficient (Kyy) shows a larger value accordingly. In the late breakup years, the N2O concentration shows high values and more uniform distributions than in the early years after the vortex breakup, with a smaller vertical advection and Kyy after the vortex breakup. It is found that the N2O distributions are largely affected by the Arctic vortex breakup time but the dynamically defined vortex breakup time is not the only factor. 相似文献
999.
地震属性技术在岩性和构造解释等方面得到了越来越广泛的应用,特别是在煤、油气资源勘探中具有重要的作用.基于淮南矿区谢桥1区13 1煤层地震勘探资料,提取了28种地震属性数据;通过地震属性的分析,优选出平均峰值振幅、振幅的峰态、最大绝对振幅、瞬时频率斜率等4种地震属性作为煤层厚度预测模型基本参数,结合已知钻孔资料,利用多元多项式回归以及BP人工神经网络方法,求出了各属性与煤厚之间的多元多项式回归模型及人工神经网络模型,并对模型进行了误差分析和应用结果对比分析,反映出人工神经网络模型在煤厚预测中具有好的应用效果. 相似文献
1000.