Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

Loss of human lives as a result of earthquakes is caused overwhelmingly by the collapse of buildings within less than a few minutes of main shocks. The most urgent countermeasure consists of two key elements. One is strengthening of weak structures and the other is short-term earthquake prediction. Short-term prediction needs precursors. Although some promising precursors are reported, the prevailing views in Japan and elsewhere are overly pessimistic. The pessimism largely roots in the fact that short-term precursors are generally non-seismic and tools developed for seismology are not designed to detect them. Nonetheless, nationally funded large-scale earthquake prediction programs always emphasize the need to reinforce seismometer networks. They do not take into account the views of those in the science community who point to the importance of non-seismic precursors. While there are well-founded causes to be skeptical, the situation needs to be improved. One reason for skepticism is that the observations of precursors have not yet been perfect enough and another is that some important fundamental aspects of non-seismic precursors are still unresolved. We review some of these problems.     

利用遥感数据分析青藏高原水热条件对叶面积指数的影响

利用遥感数据,以异于传统的点分析的方法,分析水热条件对植被的影响。以青藏高原为研究区域,利用2003年的遥感数据 进行分析,结果表明,在时间轴上,叶面积指数和温度、土壤水分、降雨存在着良好的相关性; 在空间分布上,叶面积指数和三 者的相关性在大部分区域是呈良好的正相关,在部分区域呈现了弱相关和负相关,且分析探讨了出现这种现象的原因。     

遥感数据产品真实性检验不确定性分析研究进展

不确定性分析是遥感产品真实性检验最重要的部分,本文以叶面积指数LAI为例,从测量、模型以及蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应3个方面分析产品真实性检验过程的不确定性来源,并针对问题提出减小其不确定性的办法。对于相对均一的地表,地面测量的空间代表性比较好,可不考虑地表空间代表性引起的尺度效应和蕴含在模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性。针对异质性地表,分为两种情况:若模型是线性的,蕴含在模型中的尺度效应可以忽略,只需要考虑测量的不确定性、模型本身的不确定性、以及地面测量的空间代表性引起的尺度效应;若模型是非线性的,则测量、模型和蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性都需要考虑。     

运用动态谐波回归模型对MODIS叶面积指数时间序列产品的分析与预测

运用动态谐波回归模型(Dynamic Harmonic Regression,DHR)对MODIS的长时间序列的LAI产品进行分析,可以从中分离出LAI随时间变化的多年趋势、季节变化及残差等主要成分,通过建立的模型实现LAI年间变化的短时预测。本文将所述DHR模型分析方法试用于遥感数据产品随时间变化的信息提取,对LAI年间变化的预测结果证明该方法用于遥感像元尺度LAI产品的时间序列分析与预测的效果良好。     

基于NDVI先验知识的LAI地面采样方法

针对非均质中低分辨率像元的叶面积指数LAI验证中如何布设基本采样单元ESU的问题,提出基于NDVI先验知识的ESU布设方法,并采用不同植被类型、不同均匀程度的地表作为模拟场,分析对比了方法的精度及稳定性。结果显示,本文方法用NDVI先验知识描述植被的生长空间分布信息,能相对准确地划分植被的不同生长水平,有效降低层内方差。在草地和森林地区的试验中,精度与稳定性均优于传统的随机采样、均匀采样和基于分类图的3种采样方法。因此,本文提出的采样方法为大尺度非均质区域LAI地面验证的采样方案提供了新的设计思路。     

2003—2019年邯郸市叶面积指数时空变化特征

研究和掌握叶面积指数(LAI)时空变化特征,对区域植被保护、植树造林和环境保护具有重要的参考意义.本文以邯郸市为例,基于MCD15A3H遥感影像数据、DEM数据和土地利用等多元数据,引入Sen趋势与Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析方法,系统分析了邯郸市像素尺度上的LAI数值的变化特征,并基于不同的土地利用类型、不同...     

Retrieval of remotely sensed LAI using Landsat ETM+ data and ground measurements of solar radiation and vegetation structure: Implication of leaf inclination angle

A time series of leaf area index (LAI) of a managed birch forest in Germany (near Dresden) has been developed based on 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Landsat ETM+ sensor at 30 m resolution. The Landsat ETM+ LAI was retrieved using a modified physical radiative transfer (RTM) model which establishes a relationship between LAI, fractional vegetation cover (fC), and given patterns of surface reflectance, view-illumination conditions and optical properties of vegetation. In situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and vegetation structure parameters using hemispherical photography (HSP) served for calibration of model parameters, while data from litter collection at the study site provided the ground-based estimates of LAI for validation of modelling results. Influence of view-illumination conditions on optical properties of canopy was simulated by a view angle geometry model incorporating the solar zenith angle and the sensor viewing angle. Effects of intra-annual and inter-annual variability of structural properties of the canopy on the light extinction coefficient were simulated by implementing variability of the leaf inclination angle (LIA), which was confirmed in the study site. The results revealed good compatibility of the produced Landsat ETM+ LAI data set with the litter-estimated LAI. The results also showed high sensitivity of the LAI retrieval algorithm to variability of structural properties of the canopy: the implementation of LIA dynamics into the LAI retrieval algorithm significantly improved the model accuracy.     

机载Lidar数据的农作物覆盖度及LAI反演

虽然Lidar点云数据已被广泛应用于获取森林各项结构参数,但这些方法并不适合于低矮的灌丛、林地和农作物。本文以玉米为研究对象,提出利用机载Lidar点云数据的强度信息和全波形数据中的距离与扫描天顶角信息,反演农作物覆盖度和LAI的方法。在黑河进行的飞行实验和地面验证表明,该方法具有较高精度,也表明Lidar在低矮自然植被监测和农业应用上有较大潜力。     

盘锦湿地芦苇群落冠层内辐射分布特征

基于盘锦湿地芦苇群落冠层内不同层次的微气象要素与生物学特性观测,探讨芦苇群落冠层内总辐射分布与叶面积指数(LAI)的关系。结果表明:芦苇群落内太阳辐射的垂直分布在生长前期(5月)和后期(9月)呈S型曲线,生长盛期(6月和7月)呈指数曲线变化。冠层内不同层次的太阳辐射透射率随叶面积指数的增加而减少,消光系数(k)存在明显的季节变化,表现为从萌芽期到成熟期逐渐减小趋势(最小值k=0.436)。