一种准确通用的台风路径预报模式

应用天气学理论,对台风云图的晴空区轴线制约台风移动的规律进行物理解释。根据台风云团与晴空区之间存在的干、湿梯度力和推动台风前进的惯性力的互相关系,建立台风移向预报方程和轨迹预报方程,分析论证了台风移向变化的物理过程,把影响台风移动的复杂因子转化为单一的预报因子。     

一种针对规则冲突的规则集语义比较算法

应用DFD(Diverse Firewall Design)方法进行防火墙规则集设计时,需使用规则集语义比较算法,判断多个规则集是否语义一致。规则冲突是导致规则集语义不一致的主要原因。因此,需要研究针对规则冲突的规则集语义比较算法。而现有算法时空复杂度较高,性能低下。文中提出了1种基于关键数据包选取映射的规则集语义比较算法(KPCM)。KPCM算法针对规则冲突选取关键数据包,并通过比较这些数据包在不同规则集中的处理动作,判断这些规则集是否语义一致。理论分析和测试表明,KPCM算法时空性能均优于现有算法。     

台湾海峡表层沉积物中重矿物特征及其物质来源

台湾海峡重矿物平均分布0.95%,其分布由西岸向东岸递减;由北部经台湾浅滩朝粤东方向缓慢递减。碎屑矿物46种,以角闪石、绿帘石、磁铁矿、钛铁矿、褐铁矿和片状矿物为主,它们占重矿物含量的67%。据主要重矿物含量将海峡分成8个矿物组合区。碎屑矿物来自海峡两岸基岩,通过河流搬运入海,有部分片状矿物为海峡以北的物质随浙闽沿岸流进入海峡而沉积。其海绿石是台湾西岸、澎湖岛第三系或第四系含海绿石岩层剥蚀后搬运入海沉积而成的。台湾浅滩的残留沉积物为晚更新世低海面时期的河口滨海相沉积物。由于处在开放的海洋环境,至今没有接受现代沉积。残留沉积物中的磁铁矿、钛铁矿、锆石等重矿物相对富集,含量高于近源海域,有可能赋存浅海砂矿。     

专题地图制图决策系统规则库的设计

在分析已有的专题地图制图决策支持系统的有关理论的基础上,总结相关制图知识,提出规则库设计的方法并设计部分规则实例,最后对规则库如何映射到关系数据库做了一些探讨,并建立了模型。     

开挖过程及围护结构对地铁车站抗震性能的影响

为了研究开挖工序以及围护结构作为永久结构在明挖车站的抗震设计校核中的作用,基于以灌注桩作为支挡结构的郑州市某明挖结构地铁站,采用Plaxis2D建立二层单柱双跨矩形框架式有限元模型,采取硬化土本构,建立考虑分步开挖、和不考虑开挖的模型,进行有无围护墙及不同墙厚抗震验算.研究结果表明:侧墙作为主要抗侧力构件,在地震荷载作...     

室内用户语义位置预测研究

位置预测技术可以提前预知用户下一时刻的位置,在基于位置的服务（Location-based Service,LBS）领域中发挥着极其重要的作用。现有的位置预测技术大多仅使用用户的地理轨迹,仅使用地理轨迹挖掘出来的用户移动模式易受地理特性的限制缺乏深层次的语义信息。本文基于某商场群体用户的室内轨迹数据和语义信息预测用户下一个时刻语义位置。语义位置预测包括停留区域识别、停留区域语义匹配、语义位置建模。在停留区域识别阶段,为减少室内停留时间不固定对停留区域识别的影响,本研究提出了一种新型的时空凝聚层次聚类算法（Spatial-Temporal Agglomerative Nesting, ST-AGNES),该算法具有思想简单、超参数少、自动生成聚类个数等优点。在语义匹配阶段,引入了吸引度规则,充分利用停留区域所有轨迹点与室内高密度的商铺名称信息做匹配。最后,采用长短型记忆神经网络模型（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）挖掘群体用户的语义位置模式并预测用户未来的语义位置,实验预测正确率达到61.3%。     

Ramifications of high in-situ temperatures for laboratory testing and inferred stress states of unlithified sediments – A case study from the Nankai margin

The recovery of drill cores involves changes in pressure and temperature conditions, which inevitably alter the mechanical properties of unlithified sediments. While expansion from unloading after core recovery is well studied, the effects from cooling on standard geotechnical tests are commonly neglected. Along the central portion of the Nankai margin sediments were recovered from high in-situ temperatures of up to 110 °C during IODP Leg 190. So far, the interpretation of the consolidation state of the Lower Shikoku Basin facies (LSB) entering the accretionary Nankai margin is ambiguous. Results from laboratory consolidation tests at room temperature show high pre-consolidation stresses. These were interpreted as hardening caused by cementation, while the field-based porosity vs. depth trend points towards normal consolidation. As an explanation for this discrepancy, the change of the mechanical properties by cooling from in-situ to laboratory conditions is proposed. In this paper, the results of a thermo-mechanical model are compared to published field data. This comparison suggests that the observed hardening is at least partially an artefact from cooling during core recovery, and that the strata may be considered normally consolidated to slightly overconsolidated. The latter can be explained by minor cementation or the influence of secondary consolidation. The results suggest that cooling from high in-situ temperatures may be important for the interpretation of the consolidation state of other sedimentary successions elsewhere.     

Stress‐dependent hardening and failure surfaces of dry sand

During several triaxial compression experiments on plastic hardening, softening, and failure properties of dense sand specimens, it was found on various stress paths that the size of the failure surface was not constant. Instead, it changed depending on the current state of hydrostatic pressure. This finding is in contrast to the standard opinion consisting of the fact that the failure surface remains constant, once it has been reached during an experiment or in situ. In general, the behaviour of cohesionless granular‐material‐like sand is somehow characterised in between fluid and solid, where the solid behaviour results from the angle of internal friction and the confining pressure. Although the friction angle is an intrinsic material property, the confining pressure varies with the boundary conditions, thus defining different solid properties like plastic hardening, softening, and also failure. Based on our findings, it was the goal of the present contribution to introduce an improved setting for the plastic strain hardening and softening behaviour including the newly found yield properties at the limit state. For the identification of the material parameters, a complete triaxial experimental analysis of the tested sand is given. The overall elasto‐plasticity concept is validated by numerical computations of several laboratory foundation‐ and slope‐failure experiments. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the standard concept of a constant failure surface, where the corresponding yield surfaces are understood as contours of equivalent plastic work or plastic strain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北京市北山泥石流分布规律及形成过程

北京北山泥石流的分布受构造控制，呈北东方向展布。其分布在时间上和空间上均有一定的规律可寻。一条泥石流沟谷的形成从开始到结束，概括分为形成、位移和堆积。区内泥石流的形成主要有三种形式：以水力侵蚀为主，以坡面侵蚀为主和以沟源崩、滑塌形式触发沟床物质活动而形成的泥石流。     

A swallow-tail type catastrophic model of earthquake process

（殷有泉）（杜静）Ａｓｗａｌｌｏｗ－ｔａｉｌｔｙｐｅｃａｔａｓｔｒｏｐｈｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｏｃｅｓｓ￥Ｙｏｕ－ＱｕａｎＹＩＮａｎｄＪｉｎｇＤＵ（ＰｅｋｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｄｙ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００８７１，Ｃｈｉｎａ）（Ｎｏｒｔ...