节能温度、供热气象指数及供热参数研究

对北京市2001～2002年采暖季的室内外气象一热力试验数据进行科学分析,求出实际条件下不同环境温度、风速、辐射等气象条件下的节能温度,提出了供热气象指数及等级划分标准,推算出总供热量、供回水温度差及通过控制回水温度而知供水温度等供热参数,并已在北京市供热作业中投入应用,为实时供热调度提供了参考依据,是节能、增效、减污的基础。     

城市热岛强度订正与供热量预报

利用公主坟自动气象站(供热区)和北京市观象台(郊区)间1997～2001年4个冬季逐月(11月～3月)逐日4次气温差值,研究了城市热岛变化特征,结合其他研究提出了北京市各供热区城市热岛强度订正原则和初步结果。对北京市2001～2002年采暖季的室内外气象-热力试验数据进行科学分析,求出不同环境温度条件下单位面积供热量模式,按此模式运行则存在较大节能空间。     

长江口邻近海域沉积物和间隙水中硅的研究

以2011年6月和8月在长江口邻近海域采集的沉积物和间隙水样品为研究对象,讨论了沉积物中生物硅（BSi）和间隙水中溶解硅（DSi）的分布情况和影响因素,并初步探讨了生物硅的循环和保存。结果表明,表层沉积物中BSi的含量较低,且均小于1%。柱状沉积物中BSi的含量范围为0.34%~0.52%。C3、D1站位柱状沉积物中BSi的记录主要是由早期成岩过程控制,33#站位的分布特征主要是由水动力等变化控制。沉积物间隙水中DSi的浓度范围为101.6~263.9 μmol/L,低于纯BSi的溶解度;间隙水的pH值越大,沉积物的含水率越低,还原性越强,间隙水中DSi的含量越高。3站位生物硅的埋藏效率均较高,表明长江口邻近海域是潜在的硅的汇。沉积通量的分布与沉积速率和埋藏效率的分布一致,均有近岸高于远海的趋势。     

Petroleum retention in the Mandal Formation,Central Graben,Norway

Upper Jurassic organic matter-rich, marine shales of the Mandal Formation have charged major petroleum accumulations in the North Sea Central Graben including the giant Ekofisk field which straddles the graben axis. Recent exploration of marginal basin positions such as the Mandal High area or the Søgne Basin has been less successful, raising the question as to whether charging is an issue, possibly related to high thermal stability of the source organic matter or delayed expulsion from source to carrier.The Mandal Formation is in part a very prolific source rock containing mainly Type II organic matter with <12 wt.-% TOC and HI < 645 mg HC/g TOC but Type III-influenced organofacies are also present. The formation is therefore to varying degrees heterogeneous. Here we show, using geochemical mass balance modelling, that the petroleum expulsion efficiency of the Mandal Formation is relatively low as compared to the Upper Jurassic Draupne Formation, the major source rock in the Viking Graben system. Using maturity series of different initial source quality from structurally distinct regions and encompassing depositional environments from proximal to distal facies, we have examined the relationship between free hydrocarbon retention and organic matter structure. The aromaticity of the original and matured petroleum precursors in the Mandal source rock plays a major role in its gas retention capacity as cross-linked monoaromatic rings act on the outer surface of kerogen as sorptive sites. However, oil retention is a function of both kerogen and involatile bitumen compositions. Slight variations in total petroleum retention capacities within the same kerogen yields suggest that texture of organic matter (e.g. organic porosity) could play a role as well.     

海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济效率影响研究

产业结构变动对经济增长影响已经得到了现代经济增长理论的肯定,但是产业结构变动对经济增长效率的影响一直是学术界没有解决的问题。目前中国已经进入了中等收入国家,粗放式增长逐渐结束,集约式增长越来越受到重视。文章基于海洋产业,研究了海洋产业结构变动对经济增长效率的影响,将海洋产业结构变动具体量化,分为海洋产业结构高级化和合理化;其次运用海洋产业全要素生产率来衡量海洋经济增长效率,通过从海洋生产函数中剔除初级要素带来的海洋经济增长效率得出海洋产业全要素生产率;同时计算出海洋产业劳动和资本的生产效率;最后收集了1996—2015年全国沿海11个省、市、自治区的数据,运用混合面板数据模型来研究海洋产业结构高级化和合理化对海洋经济增长效率的影响。研究发现海洋产业结构合理化和高级化对海洋经济增长具有正面影响,对于未来发展海洋经济提出了提高海洋产业技术来提高海洋产业结构优化,从而使得海洋经济发展走上集约式增长之路。     

1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空特征及其与降水的关系

采用1979-2016年ECMWF1.5°×1.5°逐月再分析资料及同期37个气象站点的降水资料,利用一元线性回归、累积距平、Kriging及IDW（反距离加权）等方法分析了祁连山地区大气水汽含量时空分布特征、降水转化率空间变化规律以及风场分布规律,并对比分析了中国西部不同地区降水转化率的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）1979-2016年祁连山地区大气水汽含量整体呈增加趋势,且季节变化明显。其中夏季是各层大气水汽含量最多的季节,高达329.24 mm,占多年平均大气水汽含量的48.1%。（2）近38 a来,祁连山地区的大气水汽含量呈东南多、西北少的空间分布,且随海拔的升高而逐渐减少,整层大气水汽主要集中在5 000 m以下。（3）祁连山地区的降水转化率从空间上表现出由东向西递减的趋势,说明该地区空中云水资源的开发潜力自东向西逐渐增强,空中云水资源的开发潜力区域差异明显;季风所携带的水汽对其影响区域的降水贡献率较高,西风所携带的水汽则对其影响区域的降水贡献率较低。（4）中国西部地区降水转化率呈向心式递减的趋势,且区域空间波动较大。     

中国房间空气调节器行业节能减排潜力分析

2012年,中国房间空气调节器（空调器）保有量约为3.57亿台,依据抽样调查数据计算得到保有量装机容量,采用各省市夏季平均温度估算超过26℃的时间作为运行时间计算得出年电力消耗约3.28×1011 kW?h,折合碳排放约为318 Mt CO₂当量。由于空调器国内需求量将进一步增长,预计到2030年保有量将达到当前的4～5倍。在电力结构不变情景下,空调器总体能效提高1倍,2030年空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放约为603 Mt CO₂当量。假设空调器总体能效提高1倍、高能效产品消费比例进一步提高并伴随中国能源结构调整,如水电、核电、太阳能等低碳能源比例不断提高,在满足中国空调器需求的前提下,2030年中国空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放可以争取控制在当前的水平。     

Spatial energy efficiency patterns and the coupling relationship with industrial structure:A study on Liaoning Province,China

Using a sample of 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province, this study first explored the spatial hierarchy and structural characteristics of energy efficiency from the following three viewpoints: energy technical efficiency based on data envelopment analysis, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and energy utilization efficiency combining the previous two indexes. After measuring and analyzing the advancement, rationality, and concentration of the industrial structure in each city, we made some generalizations about the coupling features of the energy efficiency and industrial structure in Liaoning, using the coupling degree rating model. Some of our conclusions are as follows: (1) The 14 cities differ significantly in their energy efficiency, with Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan, and Jinzhou enjoying the highest energy efficiency. Northwestern Liaoning and other heavy-industrial cities such as Fushun and Benxi belong to low-efficiency and high-consumption areas. (2) In areas with higher efficiency, the spatial patterns of the energy technical efficiency, energy consumption per unit of GDP, and energy utilization efficiency are, respectively, "π"-,"Ⅱ"- and "H"- shaped. Geographically, the energy utilization efficiency shows different trends from east to west and from north to south. Factors such as the binuclear structure of economic development have a major effect on this spatial pattern of energy efficiency. (3) Southeastern Liaoning enjoys a highly advanced industrial structure. Areas with a highly rational industrial structure form an “H” shape, with Shenyang and Dalian at the two poles. The urban agglomerations in middle and southern Liaoning have a highly concentrated industrial structure. (4) Overall, the coupling between energy efficiency and industrial structure is low in Liaoning, except for Shenyang and Dalian at both ends, where the coupling between an advanced industrial structure and energy efficiency is higher than in other cities.     

Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.