WRF模式对福建沿海风电场风速预测的效果分析

在WRF模式中选取不同的边界层、近地面层以及陆面过程参数化方案,设计了4种不同物理过程参数化方案,组合模拟福建沿海某测风塔站2010年1月1—11日和7月1—11日的逐时风速,将数值模拟结果和同期测风塔观测数据进行对比,以寻求最佳参数化方案。经分析比较,采用MYJ边界层方案,Monin-Obukhov近地面层方案以及Noah陆面过程方案的方案2模拟效果最好。使用该方案对2010年1月和7月的风速进行模拟,按不同风速级别分别对数值模拟结果进行对比分析,结果表明:方案2对6~15m/s风速模拟的平均相对误差在20%左右,能够满足风电预测的精度需求;而对0~6m/s风速模拟的误差相对较大,这可能是由于模式地形分辨率不够精细以及风塔所处海陆交界处的特殊位置,使低风速容易受地面扰动以及海陆气流影响所致。     

On a near-optimal control approach for a wave energy converter in irregular waves

Real-time smooth reactive control and optimal damping of wave energy converters in irregular waves is difficult in part because the radiation impulse response function is real and causal, which constrains the frequency-dependent added mass and radiation damping according to the Kramers–Kronig relations. Optimal control for maximum energy conversion requires independent synthesis of the impulse response functions corresponding to these two quantities. Since both are non-causal (one being odd and other even), full cancellation of reactive forces and matching of radiation damping requires knowledge or estimation of device velocity into the future. To address this difficulty and the non-causality of the exciting force impulse response function, this paper investigates the use of propagating-wave surface elevation up-wave of the device to synthesize the necessary forces. Long-crested waves are assumed, and the approach is based on the formulations of Naito and Nakamura [2] and Falnes [22]. A predominantly heaving submerged device comprised of three vertically stacked discs driving a linear power take-off is studied. The overall formulation leads to smooth control that is near-optimal, given the approximations involved in the time-shifting of the non-causal impulse response functions and the consequent up-wave distances at which wave surface elevation is required. Absorbed power performance with the near-optimal approach is compared with two other cases, (i) when single-frequency tuning is used based on non-real time adjustment of the reactive and resistive loads to maximize conversion at the spectral peak frequency, and (ii) when no control is applied with damping set to a constant value. Simulation results for wave spectra over a range of energy periods and significant wave heights are compared for the three situations studied. While practical implementation presents engineering challenges, in terms of time-averaged absorbed power, unconstrained near-optimal control is found to perform significantly better than single-frequency tuning in the spectra with longer energy periods (>10 s for the present device), and somewhat better in the spectra with shorter energy periods (here ≤10 s).     

提高月预报业务水平的动力相似集合方法

针对基于大气环流模式的月预报问题,提出了一种能有效减小预报误差并提高预报技巧的动力相似集合预报新方法。该方法着眼于动力模式与统计经验的内在结合,在模式积分过程中通过提取大气环流历史相似性信息,对模式误差进行参数化处理,形成多个时变的相似强迫量来扰动生成预报的集合成员。将这一集合新方法应用到中国国家气候中心业务大气环流模式(BCC AGCM1.0),一组10 a准业务环境下回报试验结果显示,相比于业务集合预报,动力相似集合预报方法能有效改进模式对于大气环流的纬向平均、超长波和长波预报,从而有效提高了月平均环流预报技巧(几乎达到业务可用标准)和逐日环流预报技巧,并显著降低了预报误差,合理增加集合离散度,使二者配置关系得以改善,有望在业务预报中应用。     

1960年以来东亚季风区云-降水微物理的直接观测研究

云-降水的直接观测结果是云微物理参数化的重要依据。自1960年以来,处于东亚季风影响下的中国实施了大量对云-降水微物理参数的观测和研究,旨在加深对云-降水微物理过程的认识,从而改进数值模式中云微物理参数化方案和指导人工影响天气作业。云-降水微物理参数包括气溶胶、冰核、云滴、雨滴、冰晶、雪晶、冰雹等粒子浓度和谱分布,以及云滴、雨滴含水量等。中国已有云-降水微物理参数的成果可归纳为:(1)通常云-降水微物理粒子浓度变化较大,但总体变化有一定的范围;(2)采用Γ函数拟合云滴谱更接近实际谱,但不同拟合谱参数差异较大;(3)可用指数函数和Γ函数来拟合层状云降水雨滴谱,Γ函数拟合积云和层积混合云降水雨滴谱精度更高;(4)中国冰核浓度较高,冰核浓度随温度的降低近似成指数变化;(5)冰晶谱、雪晶谱、冰雹谱通常采用指数函数来描述;(6)通常使用荣格(Junge)和Γ函数来分段描述气溶胶粒子谱拟合误差更小。由于云-降水过程及其反馈作用描述不准确是数值模式预报结果不确定性的最大因素,中国正在不断地推进云降水的微物理观测研究,以期进一步加深对东亚季风区云-降水微物理特征的认识,从而为模式中微物理参数化方案的改进提供观测依据和科学指导。基于数值预报模式中云微物理过程参数化发展的需要,总结了中国1960年以来云-降水微物理直接观测的研究成果,可为东亚地区云-降水微物理研究及其模式参数化方案的改进提供观测依据。此外,针对云微物理参化发展的需求,结合过去已有的大量观测提出了几点建议,为今后云-降水物理综合性观测方案的设计提供参考。     

The soil hydrologic response to forest regrowth: a case study from southwestern Amazonia

As a large and dynamic land‐use category, tropical secondary forests may affect climate, soils, and hydrology in a manner different from primary forests or agricultural areas. We investigated the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_sat of a Kandiudult under different land uses in Rondonia, Brazil. We measured K_sat at four depths (12·5, 20, 30 and 50 cm) under (a) primary forest, (b) a former banana–cacao plantation (SF1), and (c) an abandoned pasture (SF2). At 12·5 cm, all three land uses differ significantly (α = 0·1), but not at the 20 and 30 cm depths. At 50 cm, K_sat was significantly greater in the former pasture than in other land uses. Lateral subsurface flow is expected during intense rainfall (about 30 times per year) at 30 cm depth in SF1 and at 50 cm depth in the forest, whereas the relatively low permeability at shallow 12·5 cm in the SF2 may result not only in lateral subsurface flow, but also saturation overland flow. For modelling purposes, recovering systems seem to have K_sat values distinct from primary forest at shallow depths, whereas at deeper layers (>20 cm) they may be considered similar to forests. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大气物理过程方案对PM2.5预报的敏感性试验

利用WRF-Chem大气化学模式,选择2015年12月中旬发生在我国的大范围空气污染过程,在采用同样化学方案条件下,针对模式中不同物理过程及其参数化方案开展了地面PM_(2.5)预报的敏感性试验。结果表明:该模式能较好展示此次PM_(2.5)污染的演变过程,与实况也较接近,但对青海经宁夏至内蒙的PM_(2.5)高值区出现了漏报现象,这可能是模式外边界未对污染物做更新所致。对地面PM_(2.5)的预报,各物理过程的敏感度不同,边界层(含近地面层)过程的影响要明显大于积云对流及微物理过程的影响,不同的参数化方案会造成不同的预报误差。边界层过程QNSE和与其配套的近地面层方案的组合是预报的较佳组合;而TEMF和与其配套的组合以及ACM2和Pleim-X的组合则不佳。合理的物理过程参数化方案有助于提高PM_(2.5)预报质量。模式预报对排放源也有适应过程,其Spin-up时间较气象要素长。     

不同参数化方案对风预报效果影响个例研究

中尺度气象模式对风场的预报效果与参数化方案的适应性紧密相关.以内蒙古高原丘陵地形、江苏平缓的海陆交界地形2种典型下垫面试验风电场为模拟区域,分别用WRFV3.2 （Weather Research and Forecast Model）模式自带的6种物理过程参数化组合方案预报了2010年1月和7月两个风电场区域的风速和风向,对比分析了参数化组合方案差异对风场预报的影响.结果表明：①内蒙古试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的风速预报能力优于WSM6,而冬季相反;复杂地形区域的风场预报需考虑陆面过程参数化方案,尤其是夏季降水发生后,陆面过程对于边界层结构的影响增大,选用Noah优于无陆面过程.②江苏试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;1月陆面过程RUC方案优于陆面热量扩散和Noah;7月陆面热量扩散方案优于RUC和Noah.③风向预报6个方案的预报风向统计与实际记录风向统计有较好的一致性,风向概率分布相似,盛行风向一致且稳定.     

Relationship between radar reflectivity and the time scale of warm rain formation in a global cloud-resolving model

The connections between radar reflectivity and the time scale of warm rain formation are examined within a global cloud-resolving model. The parameterizations formulae of auto-conversion and accretion processes in the model reveal specific relationships between the time scale for auto-conversion and radar reflectivity of cloud water as well as between the time scale for accretion and radar reflectivity of rain water. The overall time scale for warm rain formation, determined by combined contributions from these processes, is found to relate with total radar reflectivity in the manner that varies with cloud-rain composition between auto-conversion and accretion limits. The global statistics from the model output reveals that the time scale is closely related with the total radar reflectivity, thus suggesting that the radar reflectivity is a gross measure of the warm rain time scale. The relationship developed is applied to both model-simulated and CloudSat-observed radar reflectivities to compare the time scales of warm rain formation between observation and the model. Comparison of the time scale so derived reveals significant differences between the model and CloudSat observations. These differences suggest that the simulated cloud-rain composition in the model is biased toward larger rain water contents and smaller content of cloud water compared to reality due to an accelerated cloud-to-rain water conversion in the model.     

Wave-dependence of friction velocity,roughness length,and drag coefficient over coastal and open water surfaces by using three databases

The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s^-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.     

湍流通量参数化方案的非迭代方法研究

基于Högström (1996) 和Beljaars et al.(1991) 的研究工作, 沿用Louis et al.(1982) 和Launiainen (1995) 的思路, 本文采用多元回归分析方法, 研发了一种采用非迭代方法的湍流通量参数化方案。该方案直接用整体理查森数、 空气动力学粗糙度长度和热力学粗糙度长度对稳定度参数进行参数化, 从而避免了通过循环迭代计算Monin－Obukhov长度。该方案不仅有效地节省了CPU计算时间, 而且其计算结果与迭代方案 (BHH方案) 的计算结果非常接近。