Forecasting the ionospheric f0F2 parameter one hour ahead using a support vector machine technique

This paper proposes a method for forecasting the ionospheric critical frequency, f₀F₂, 1 h in advance, using the support vector machine (SVM) approach. The inputs to the SVM network are the time of day, seasonal information, 2 month running mean sunspot number (R2), 3 day running mean of the 3 h planetary magnetic ap index, the solar zenith angle, the present value f₀F₂(t) and its first and second increments, the observation of f₀F₂ at t?23 h, the 30-day mean value at time, t, f_mF₂ (t) and the previous 30 day running mean of f₀F₂ at t?23 h f_mF₂(t?23). The output is the predicted f₀F₂ 1 h ahead. The network is trained to use the ionospheric sounding data at Haikou, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Lanzhou, Beijing, Changchun and Manzhouli stations at high and low solar activities. The performance of the SVM model was verified with observed data. It is shown that the predicted f₀F₂ has good agreement with the observed f₀F₂. The performance of the SVM model is superior to that of the autocorrelation and persistence models, and that it is comparable to that of the neural network model.     

The zonal E×B plasma drift effects on the low latitude ionosphere electron density at solar minimum near equinox

The F2-layer peak density, NmF2, and peak altitude, hmF2, which were observed by 12 ionospheric sounders during the 20 September 1964 geomagnetically quiet time period at solar minimum are compared with those calculated by the three-dimensional time-dependent theoretical model of the Earth's low and middle latitude ionosphere and plasmasphere. The modeled NmF2 are also compared with those measured during the geomagnetically quiet time periods of 12–15, 18–21, and 26 September 1964 to take into account observed day-to-day ionospheric variability. Major features of the data are reproduced by the model if the corrected HWM90 neutral wind is used. The changes in NmF2 due to the zonal E×B plasma drift are found to be less than 20% in the daytime low latitude ionosphere. The model, which does not take into account the zonal E×B plasma drift, underestimates night-time NmF2 up to the maximum factor of 2 at low geomagnetic latitudes. The night-time increase of NmF2 caused by the zonal E×B plasma drift is less pronounced at −20° and 20° geomagnetic latitudes in comparison with that between −10° and 10° geomagnetic latitude. The longitude dependence of the calculated night-time low latitude influence of the zonal E×B plasma drift on NmF2 is explained in terms of the longitudinal asymmetry in B (the eccentric magnetic dipole is displaced from the Earth's center and the Earth's eccentric tilted magnetic dipole moment is inclined with respect to the Earth's rotational axis), and the variations of the wind induced plasma drift and the meridional E×B plasma drift in geomagnetic longitude. The difference between the hmF2 values calculated by including the effect of zonal E×B drift and that obtained when it is excluded does not exceed 19 km in the low latitude ionosphere. Over the geomagnetic equator the zonal E×B plasma drift produces the maximum increase in the electron density by a factor of 1.06–1.48 and 1.05–1.30 at 700 and 1000 km altitude, respectively, and this increase is not significant above about 1500 km. Changes in the vertical electron content, VEC, caused by the zonal E×B plasma do not exceed 16% during the day, while the value of the night-time VEC is increased up to a factor of 1.4 due to this drift. The maximum effects of the zonal E×B plasma drift on the night-time electron density derived from the model results corresponding to solar minimum and maximum are quite comparable.     

中国地区电离层foF2重构方法及其在短期预报中的应用

提出了一种适合于中国地区电离层f_oF₂的重构方法——以中国参考电离层为背景的改进克里格法.该方法把f_oF₂的估计值与中国参考电离层模型值之差值的相对值作为区域化变量,引入电离层距离,采用克里格法实现区域电离层重构.与直接利用f_oF₂进行克里格重构相比,以中国参考电离层为背景场保持了电离层的区域特征,提高了重构的准确性和稳定性.利用我国电离层垂测台站网的数据对该方法应用于中国地区的重构精度进行了评估.该方法与单站预报的自相关分析法相结合可实现中国地区电离层f_oF₂短期预报.     

具有分布时滞的Duffing型方程周期解的存在性

研究具有分布时滞的Duffing型方程,利用重合度理论研究其周期解的存在性,得到该方程周期解存在的充分条件,所得结果推广和改进了相关文献的结果。     

GPS数据解算对流层天顶总延迟探讨

运用GAMIT／GLOBK软件,对南极长城站与周边的各IGS跟踪站的GPS观测数据进行组网解算。在解算各站上空总天顶延迟的过程中,利用不同的星历进行解算,并对其解算结果进行了分析和探讨得出：实时预报。星历与精密星历在解算结果上差别不大,最小差值是0mm,最大差值仅为0．5mm。所以在计算各GPS站上空大气水汽含量时,可直接采用实时预报星历,对今后实时探测水汽及实时天气预报具有一定的实用意义。     

滩浅海两栖地区油气地震勘探激发接收技术研究

针对海陆两栖地区地震勘探激发、接收中存在的问题,通过改造炸药震源的装药结构和起爆方式,研制出了一种新型激发震源,提高了激发信号的品质,减小了与气枪震源之闻的信号差异;在接收技术上,研制了新型压电检波器以代替常规的沼泽机电检波器,提高了接收地震信号的频率,实现了水陆相同感应机理的检波器同时接收地震信号,消除了两种不同检波器造成的信号差异;通过对两种新技术的试验分析,认为明显提高了地震资料的分辨率和信噪比,促进了海陆两栖地区地震勘探技术的发展．     

Trends in the ionospheric E and F regions over Europe

Continuous observations in the ionospheric E and F regions have been regularly carried out since the fifties of this century at many ionosonde stations. Using these data from 31 European stations long-term trends have been derived for different parameters of the ionospheric E layer (h E, foE), F1 layer (foF1) and F2 layer (hmF2,foF2). The detected trends in the E and F1 layers (lowering of the E region height hE; increase of the peak electron densities of the E and F1 layers, foE and foF1) are in qualitative agreement with model predictions of an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect. In the F2 region, however, the results are more complex. Whereas in the European region west of 30° E negative trends in hmF2 (peak height of the F2 layer) and in the peak electron density (foF2) have been found, in the eastern part of Europe (east of 30° E) positive trends dominate in both parameters. These marked longitudinal differences cannot be explained by an increasing greenhouse effect only, here probably dynamical effects in the F2 layer seem to play an essential role.     

Perturbations of the upper atmosphere in the cleft region

In the dayside polar region—loosely referred to as the cleft region—particle precipitation and Joule heating cause significant perturbations of the upper atmosphere. Here Dynamics Explorer-2 satellite data are used to present a synopsis of these disturbance effects. Documented are an increase in electron temperature and a decrease in electron density; increases in ion drift speed and ion temperature; an increase in the upward-directed ion velocity; increases in zonal wind speed and neutral gas temperature; and changes in the neutral gas composition and mass density. It is suggested that the increase in electron temperature is partly controlled by the decrease in electron density; that the ion upflow velocity mainly depends on the electron temperature, less frequently on the ion temperature; and that the observed decrease in thermospheric mass density is due to a decrease in the atomic oxygen density, which in turn is caused by diverging wind flows.     

时滞不确定随机系统的鲁棒稳定性

主要研究了带有时滞的不确定随机系统的均方鲁棒指数稳定性问题。根据有关线性矩阵不等式理论,结合李亚普诺夫函数法,充分利用系统的扩散项,建立了1个新的时滞相关稳定判据,使文中的时滞不确定随机系统是鲁棒均方指数稳定的。给出了具体的数值例子说明了研究结果的可行性和有效性。     

Localization of VLF ionospheric exit point by comparison of multipoint ground-based observation with full-wave analysis

In order to estimate the dynamic structure of the VLF ionospheric exit point, we conducted multipoint ground-based observation of the natural VLF emissions at three unmanned sites: West Ongul (69°01′ S, 39°30′ E), Skallen (69°40′ S, 39°24′ E), and H100 (69°18′ S, 41°19′ E) around Japanese Syowa station, Antarctica, during a whole year of 2006. In this observation, we developed three sets of unmanned autonomous observation systems for natural VLF emissions. Each observation system consists of two crossed vertical loop antennas to pick-up North–South (NS) and East–West (EW) magnetic components, a multi-channel analyzer, and a data logger. The intensity and polarization of NS and EW magnetic components are obtained in 4 spaced frequency (0.5, 1.0, 2.0, and 6.0 kHz) channels by the multi-channel analyzer.The VLF emissions observed at the three sites exhibit an interesting difference in the wave intensity as well as the polarization that allows important information about the locations of their ionospheric exit point to be determined. Firstly, to find the distinct exit point, we have theoretically calculated the spatial distributions of the wave intensity and the polarization on the Earth for VLF whistler mode waves coming down from the magnetized ionosphere, by using the full-wave analysis. Then, we have compared the calculated results with the observed data, to evaluate the possible locations of the ionospheric exit point for the auroral hiss events.As an example, the direction of the estimated ionospheric exit point for the auroral hiss event at 31 March 2006 was found to be consistent with a bright aurora region. However, in this case, the estimated ionospheric exit point was located a few hundred kilometers equatorward of the associated aurora. This would suggest that the ray paths for the auroral hiss could be different from the directions of the geomagnetic field lines for auroral precipitation.