智能网格预报产品在大兴安岭暴雪天气中的释用分析

本文利用MICAPS4.1平台上的高空、地面、智能网格预报、集合预报等数值预报产品,对2018年10月26-28日发生在黑龙江省大兴安岭地区的一次区域性暴雪天气过程形成机制进行探讨。结果表明:高空槽后强冷空气与槽前西南暖湿气流在大兴安岭上空交汇,导致暖锋锋生,地面暖锋与低空暖式切变相互作用形成暴雪天气。暴雪的主要触发系统就是超极地冷空气促使高空槽强烈发展切涡,≥20m·s^-1的西南低空急流作为水汽输送带,为暴雪区提供了充足的水汽来源;垂直上升运动中心和散度辐合辐散中心耦合且加强,为暴雪提供了强有力的动力抬升条件,有利于上升运动的增强发展。智能网格预报产品对这次大兴安岭暴雪天气的落区、降水量级以及强降雪的时段,都预报的比较准确。     

Toward an improved global network for determination of tropospheric ozone climatology and trends

An examination of typical tropospheric ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual and interannual timescales and instrumental precision indicates that the current ozonesonde network is insufficient to detect a trend in tropospheric ozone of 1% per year at the 2 level even at stations with records a decade in length. From a trend prediction analysis we conclude that in order to detect a 1% per year trend in a decade or less it will be necessary to decrease the time between observations from its present value of 3–7 days to 1 day or less. The spatial distribution of the current ozonesonde stations is also inadequate for determining the global climatology of ozone. We present a quantitative theory taking into account photochemistry, surface deposition, and wind climatology to define the effectively sampled region for an observing station which, used in conjunction with the instrumental precision and the above prediction analysis, forms the basis for defining a suitable global network for determining regional and global ozone climatology and trends. At least a doubling of the present number of stations is necessary, and the oceans, most of Asia, Africa, and South America are areas where more stations are most needed. Differential absorption lidar ozone instruments have the potential for far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles and hence potentially more accurate climatology and trend determinations than feasible with ozonesondes but may produce a (fair weather) biased data set above the cloud base. A strategy for cloudy regions in which either each station utilizes both lidars and sondes or each station is in fact a doublet comprised of a near-sea-level lidar and a proximal-mountain-top lidar could serve to minimize this bias.     

国家数字地震台网中心实时观测数据接收技术

国家数字地震台网47个数字化地震观测台站的地动实时观测数据,通过卫星信道传送到国家数字地震台网中心,再经信号分配器传至7台实时处理机。47个台的信号分成3个区域以3组计算机互为实时热备份的方式接收和处理地动波形数据。     

System identification for nonlinear maneuvering of large tankers using artificial neural network

This paper deals with the application of nonparametric system identification to a nonlinear maneuvering model for large tankers using artificial neural network method. The three coupled maneuvering equations in this model for large tankers contain linear and nonlinear terms and instead of attempting to determine the parameters (i.e. hydrodynamic derivatives) associated with nonlinear terms, all nonlinear terms are clubbed together to form one unknown time function per equation which are sought to be represented by the neural network coefficients. The time series used in training the network are obtained from simulated data of zigzag maneuvers and the proposed method has been applied to these data. The neural network scheme adopted in this work has one middle or hidden layer of neurons and it employs the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Using the best choices for the number of hidden layer neurons, length of training data, convergence tolerance etc., the performance of the proposed neural network model has been investigated and conclusions drawn.     

基于网络药理学探讨附子-细辛对高血压病的作用机制

目的：基于网络药理学研究附子-细辛对高血压病的作用机制。方法：运用TCMSP数据库挖掘出附子-细辛的有效成分及药物预测靶点,采用5个生物信息数据库检索出高血压病的疾病预测靶标,构建药物靶点-疾病靶标交集,使用Cytoscape生物信息分析软件绘制“成分-靶点-疾病”中药调控网络,基于STRING数据库构建“药物-疾病”相关靶点的蛋白互作网络（PPI）,并对其进行GO和KEGG的生物信息学分析。结果：通过生物利用度和类药性筛选得到附子-细辛的有效成分29个,对应药物靶点1807个,高血压病的疾病靶标8505个,构建的药物靶点-疾病靶标交集80个。与高血压病密切相关的GO富集条目91个,KEGG信号通路123条,主要涉及流体剪切应力与动脉粥样硬化、糖尿病并发症中的AGE-RAGE信号通路、白细胞介素（IL）-17信号通路、丝裂原活化蛋白激酶（MAPK）信号通路、PI3K-Akt信号通路等。结论：附子-细辛药对与高血压病密切相关,能够通过一条或多条通路协同发挥药效作用,考虑其可能是通过干预血液的流体剪切应力影响动脉粥样硬化与心血管重塑再生而实现的。     

海底观测网技术进展与发展趋势

海底观测网络由于其特有的能源供给与信息传输优势,受到了广泛关注与重视。文中简要回顾了国内外海底观测网技术的发展现状,并就海底观测网技术发展趋势进行了探讨。     

基于分段副产物瞬时选择性的反应器网络综合

针对第三类反应体系的反应器网络综合问题,提出将串联反应以反应物到目的产物的反应步数为依据的新分段策略。通过比较不分段目的产物、不分段目的产物和中间产品、分段副产物和分段目的产物这四种不同的瞬时选择性,提出以分段副产物瞬时选择性为参数,以其对关键组分浓度或转化率的导数为依据选择各阶段最合适的反应器,以目的产物总选择性最大为目标采用遗传算法优化反应器网络。通过三个实例验证了本文所建立方法在解决复杂反应反应器网络综合问题的有效性,且本方法同样适用于简单反应体系。     

SMOS卫星遥感海表盐度资料处理应用研究进展

土壤湿度和海洋盐度卫星首次提供了覆盖全球的高频率、高精度、业务化的海表盐度产品,但其处理和延伸应用仍处于初级阶段,后续校准校正工作还将持续数年,如何及时把握其发展轨迹成为一个重要的科学问题.本研究从SMOS计划、数据概况、盐度反演算法、格点产品制作、多源数据融合和产品应用等方面,介绍和评述了SMOS计划及其海表盐度产品应用研究进展,着重分析了反演算法中的各种误差来源,对在轨2 a的运行情况进行了回顾、对未来的发展重点进行了展望,旨在为开发和应用SMOS产品提供参考.     

Study of tide prediction method influenced by nonperiodic factors based on support vector machines

Harmonic analysis, the traditional tidal forecasting method, cannot take into account the impact of noncyclical factors, and is also based on the BP neural network tidal prediction model which is easily limited by the amount of data. According to the movement of celestial bodies, and considering the insufficient tidal characteristics of historical data which are impacted by the nonperiodic weather, a tidal prediction method is designed based on support vector machine (SVM) to carry out the simulation experiment by using tidal data from Xiamen Tide Gauge, Luchaogang Tide Gauge and Weifang Tide Gauge individually. And the results show that the model satisfactorily carries out the tide prediction which is influenced by noncyclical factors. At the same time, it also proves that the proposed prediction method, which when compared with harmonic analysis method and the BP neural network method, has faster modeling speed, higher prediction precision and stronger generalization ability.     

Non-equilibrium flocculation characteristics of fine-grained sediments in grid-generated turbulent flow

Results are presented from a series of settling column experiments investigating temporal variations in the flocculation characteristics of purely cohesive (kaolin clay) sediment suspensions and cohesive (kaolin) and non-cohesive (fine sand) sediment fraction mixtures. Experimental runs were conducted under controlled hydrodynamic conditions generated by a rigid array of in-phase oscillating grids. The results indicated that rapid initial floc aggregation occurred under low turbulent shear rates, with peak maximal and root-mean-square (r.m.s.) floc sizes (∼ 400 μm and ∼ 200 μm, respectively) attained after relatively short time periods, before reducing with time. By contrast, lower aggregation rates and smaller floc sizes were observed under higher shear conditions, with flocs retaining suspended in the settling column for longer time scales due to the increased turbulence. The mud input concentration displayed some correlation with maximal and r.m.s. floc sizes at higher shear rates but no correlation was apparent at low shear rates. This observed floc behaviour may be attributed to the differences in concentration gradients at high and low shear rates that affect both floc settling rate and time required for flocs to attain equilibrium size. The addition of the fine sand fraction to the kaolin clay suspension reduced both the initial floc formation (i.e. aggregation) rate and the maximal and r.m.s. floc sizes attained throughout the experiments. The reduction in maximal floc sizes appeared to be enhanced by an increase in the ratio of fine sand to kaolin clay content within the mixture.