Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.     

The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.     

红层“哑地层”划分对比方法——以东营凹陷南坡始新统为例

针对红层划分对比所面临的难题,在充分吸收前人研究成果的基础上,将现有的多种分层方法相互整合,彼此约束和印证,形成了一套科学、便捷的技术方法,即"接触关系明顶底、岩电特征找界面、多元融合定方案、地震约束建格架"的综合地层划分对比技术。该方法针对红层的特殊性,根据岩电特征对干旱气候的响应变化,充分利用了测、录井资料纵向上的连续性优势(避免了取样分析的局限),以及地震资料横向上的优势,有效地解决了红层纵向划分、横向对比的难题,在济阳坳陷东营凹陷南坡始新统沙河街组、孔店组的应用取得了良好效果。该方法可为其它地区同类复杂地层划分对比提供技术支持。     

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.     

基于GIS的广东省综合运输体系规划信息平台构建研究

广东省交通运输厅从2012年起,组织分期研究开发基于地理信息系统的广东省综合运输体系规划信息平台（简称＂平台＂）,旨在建立健全统一的全省交通运输业数据采集、发布标准及技术管理规范,分别构建5大类运输方式线网及重要的运输枢纽站场节点的多级图层,叠加形成全省综合运输体系布局规划＂一张图＂。＂平台＂采用4层设计,依托后台管理、应用分析和综合展示3大子系统,搭建了基础地理信息、经济社会、交通运输现状、综合运输体系规划成果及其他共5大类数据库,＂平台（一期）＂于2014年3月26日通过验收,实现了多维度、多视角展示和查询交通运输业数据成果的预期功能。研究实践将力促综合运输体系规划研究和决策方式实行根本性变革。     

震害现场紧急卫星通讯系统的研究和建设

本文研究了应用VSAT技术建立大震现场紧急通讯系统的设计和实施方案,规定了该系统应实现的功能。在此基础上,提出了建立我国未来陆地地震救灾移动卫星通讯计划,并对一些关键技术和为移动用户可能提供的通讯业务进行了讨论。     

Evaluation of the relative roles of global versus local sedimentary controls on Middle to Late Pleistocene formation of continental margin strata,Canterbury Basin,New Zealand

Determining the relative influence of eustasy versus local sedimentary processes on strata formation is a fundamental challenge in the study of continental margin stratigraphy. In this paper, the relative contribution of these factors on continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene is evaluated using samples from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 317. Core‐logging, biostratigraphy and quantitative X‐ray diffraction mineralogy are used to delineate continental shelf sedimentary systems. Major lithological unconformities bound stratigraphic sequences that contain recurring compositional patterns and that resemble other examples of Middle to Upper Pleistocene sequences. However, a preliminary chronology suggests that sequence boundary formation cannot be linked ‘one to one’ with eustatic cycles and therefore these sequences can contain multiple ca 100 ka eustatic cycles. Smaller amplitude, higher frequency transitions in sediment composition are interpreted as stratigraphic sequences driven by more rapid perturbations in the interplay of accommodation and sediment supply; their stratigraphy is variable in time and across the shelf, suggesting a strong influence of local sedimentary forcing in their formation. Changes in sediment composition after the Middle Pleistocene Transition indicate that sediment transfer from onshore sources in the glaciated Southern Alps to the middle‐shelf occurred over a single 100 ka glacio‐eustatic cycle, with an additional 100 ka lag before the mineralogical signal was preserved on the outer‐shelf. This phenomenon is coincident with rapid shelf progradation in this basin, suggesting a causal relation between across‐shelf sediment transport and margin progradation. This is one of very few studies that provide insights at the core scale into the processes driving continental margin evolution during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. This work shows that compositional changes in mud‐dominated successions can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation and the identification of high‐frequency sequences, which may not be possible using a conventional stratigraphic approach.     

The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO₂ concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.     

Integrated Indicators-based Gradation of Cultivated Land Quality in Mountainous Region of Southwestern China

1 Introduction The gradation of cultivated land is to assess the suitability of cultivated land for agricultural production in terms of natural and economic prop-erties of land (Feng et al. 2004). It can be used to evaluate sustainability of land use and …     

Critical Approach to Methods of Glacier Reconstruction in High Asia and Discussion of the Probability of a Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Inland Ice

This overview discusses old and new results as to the controversy on the past glacier extension in High Asia, which has been debated for 35 years now. This paper makes an attempt to come closer to a solution. H.v. Wissmann's interpretation (1959) of a small-scale glaciation contrasts with M. Kuhle's reconstruction (1974) of a large-scale glaciation with a 2.4 million km2 extended Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) inland glaciation and a Himalaya-Karakorum icestream network. Both opinions find support but also contradiction in the International and Chinese literature (Academia Sinica). The solution of this question is of supraregional importance because of the subtropical position of the concerned areas. In case of large albedo-intensive ice surfaces, a global cooling would be the energetical consequence and, furthermore, a breakdown of the summer monsoon. The current and interglacial heat-low above the very effective heating panel of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau exceeding 4000 m, which gives rise to this monsoon circulation, would be replaced by the cold-high of an inland ice. In addition, the plate-tectonically created Pleistocene history of the uplift of High Asia — should the occasion arise up to beyond the snowline (ELA) —would attain a paleoclimatically great, perhaps global importance. In case of a heavy superimposed ice load, the question would come up as to the glacio-isostatic interruption of this primary uplift. The production of the loesses sedimentated in NE-China and their very probable glacial genesis as well as an eustatic lowering of the sea-level by 5 to 7 m in the maximum case of glaciation are immediately tied up with the question of glaciation we want to discuss. Not the least, the problems of biotopes of the sanctuary-centres of flora and fauna, i.e., interglacial re-settlement, are also dependent on it. On the basis of this Quaternary- geomorphological-glaciological connection, future contributions are requested on the past glaciation, the current and glacial permafrost table and periglacial development, the history of uplift, and the development of Ice Age lakes and loess, but also on the development of vegetation and fauna in High Asia.