Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO₂-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.     

A physically-based model of long-term food demand

Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food demand, the agricultural system, and the interactions with other natural and human systems. Studying such interactions in the long-term future is often done with Integrated Assessment Modelling. In this paper we develop a new food demand model to make projections several decades ahead, having 46 detailed food categories and population segmented by income and urban vs rural. The core of our model is a set of relationships between income and dietary patterns, with differences between regions and income inequalities within a region. Hereby we take a different, more long-term-oriented approach than elasticity-based macro-economic models (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models). The physical and detailed nature of our model allows for fine-grained scenario exploration. We first apply the model to the newly developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and then to additional sustainable development scenarios of food waste reduction and dietary change. We conclude that total demand for crops and grass could increase roughly 35–165% between 2010 and 2100, that this future demand growth can be tempered more effectively by replacing animal products than by reducing food waste, and that income-based consumption inequality persists and is a contributing factor to our estimate that 270 million people could still be undernourished in 2050.     

Development of internet-based ship technical information management system

In this paper, internet-based ship technical information management system has been developed as a means to accumulate, manage, share and utilize various distributed applications and information used for ship design and building. The information managed in the system is documents from the whole life cycle including concept design, basic design, detailed design, construction, operation and maintenance. In addition, using the developed system, integrated system framework is also proposed to integrate applications and database in concurrent engineering environment.     

Empowering learning through design: a comparative analysis of ICM course development for web-based and classroom delivery

This article reviews the development of two courses focussed on meeting Integrated Coastal Management capacity building needs: an undergraduate degree course, and a web-based distance learning course. Influential factors in the development of each course are identified and compared. Important considerations are found to be methods of quality assurance, course content, the temporal and spatial context of teaching and learning, level of learner empowerment, and the role of the teacher. It is concluded that in order to understand the role of such courses in capacity building, coastal educators need to share experiences and encourage reflection on the effectiveness of capacity building efforts.     

一种新型深海海洋平台——几何形Spar和集成浮力桶的试验研究

介绍了一种新型深海海洋平台——几何形Spar壳体概念和集成浮力桶立管支撑概念，并与常规Spar和桁架式Spar进行了比较。为测定多角形Spar和集成浮力桶在不同环境条件下运动响应的总体性能，设计并完成了在海洋工程水池中的模型试验，此类试验在国内尚属首次。     

海洋环境监测系统动态集成框架研究

区域性／全国性的海洋环境监测系统需要集成许多已有业务化运行的海洋信息系统,并且要为成千上万的应用系统提供服务,迫切需要一个支持分布式异构环境的海洋监测信息及服务集成框架来指导系统的建设。论文提出的基于XML,Web Service,Ontology,等技术的集成框架包括集成总线及Adapter Setvice,元数据库及集成协调器与供二次开发的API及Web Service工具集。这一集成框架是开放的可扩充的,它实现了数据互操作,软件互操作与语义互操作,可以应用于大规模海洋监测系统的动态集成,并能有效利用网上丰富的涉海商业Web服务。     

Hydrologic‐response‐driven sediment transport at a regional scale,process‐based simulation

Assessing hydrologically driven erosion at regional scales from a process‐based perspective presents a significant challenge. Most regional‐scale erosion assessments are based upon a simple steady‐state hydrology foundation. For this study, the sediment transport version of the physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM), excited by synthetically generated rainfall, was employed to assess long‐term hydrologically driven erosion for a regional‐scale island boundary‐value problem. The spatiotemporal dynamics of runoff generation, erosion, and deposition are illustrated through saturation, water depth, velocity, and sediment concentration results. The simulations demonstrate that process‐based assessment for concept development is both feasible and tractable at regional spatial and human time scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying urban water supply security under global change

Urban water supply security is commonly measured in terms of per capita water availability at the city level. However, the actual services that citizens receive are influenced by several components, including (1) a city's access to water, (2) infrastructure for its treatment, storage and distribution, (3) financial capital for building and maintaining infrastructure, and (4) management efficacy for regulating and operating the water system. These four types of "capital" are required for the provision of public water supply services. A fifth capital “community adaptation” is needed when public services are insufficient. Here, we develop and test an integrated framework for the quantification of urban water supply security based on these five capitals. “Security” involves three dimensions: 1) the level of system function (i.e., supply services); 2) risks to these services; and 3) robustness of system functioning. We apply this Capital Portfolio Approach (CPA) to seven urban case studies selected from a wide range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic regions on four continents. Detailed data on urban water infrastructure and services were collected in two cities, and key stakeholder interviews and household surveys were conducted in one city. Additional cities were assessed based on publicly available utility and globally available datasets. We find that in cities with high levels of public services, adaptive capacity remains inactive, while cities with high levels of water insecurity rely on community adaptation for self-provision of services. Inequality in the capacity to adapt leads to variable levels of urban water security and the vulnerability of the urban poor. Results demonstrate the applicability of the presented framework for the assessment of individual urban water systems, as well as for cross-city comparison of any type of cities. We discuss implications for policy and decision-making.     

矿精粉中关键金属元素赋存状态研究方法流程的建立:以长江中下游成矿带富钴硫矿精粉为例

长江中下游成矿带作为我国矿床学研究程度和矿产利用技术水平最高的成矿带之一,大部分矿床中除了主要成矿元素铜、金、铁和硫等,还伴生潜在可利用的关键金属资源镉、钴、硒、碲和铼等。由于目前矿山主要选矿回收铜、铁、硫、铅、锌、金和银等主要矿种,在不改变选矿工艺的条件下,矿山产品矿精粉中关键金属的分布特征和可利用性是当前关键金属资源利用的核心问题之一。本文对成矿带内玢岩型铁矿床、矽卡岩型铁矿床、矽卡岩型铁铜矿床、矽卡岩型铜金矿床、斑岩型铜金矿床和角砾岩筒型铜金矿床等六类矿床的矿山产品(铜金粉、硫精粉、铁精粉和金精粉)进行了系统化学成分分析,发现目前的矿山产品中关键金属元素含量普遍不高,但矽卡岩型铁矿床中的龙桥铁矿床硫精粉中富集钴,具有综合回收利用钴资源的潜力。在此基础上,本次工作利用综合矿物分析技术(TIMA),扫描电镜(SEM)和激光剥蚀-等离子体质谱仪(LA-ICP-MS)三种测试方法,系统开展了富钴硫精粉中钴的赋存状态研究。结果表明,龙桥硫精粉中钴矿物为辉砷钴矿、铁硫砷钴矿和硫铜钴矿,分别占硫精粉中总钴含量的9.93%、0.64%和0.01%。黄铁矿晶格中类质同象形式产出的钴占总量的81.97%,此外还有7.46%的钴赋存在其他矿物中。通过对比研究,初步建立了矿精粉中关键金属元素赋存状态的研究方法流程,为矿精粉中钴的回收利用提供了依据。     

Commercial scale invertebrate fisheries enhancement in Australia: Experiences,challenges and opportunities

Stock enhancement or “assisted recruitment” for fisheries management in Australia is at an experimental R&D phase. Development of the science has focused largely on finfish targeted by the recreational sector; however it is considered that high value invertebrates will be the best candidates for commercial scale fisheries enhancement. Three main ingredients are required; technical capacity, governance capability, and the ‘correct’ species. The technical capacity needed is in the area of hatchery production and wild release methodologies, whilst the governance capability needed is informed policy that accounts for the complexities and interdisciplinary nature of stock enhancement. In particular, the appropriate articulation of policy to support economic development and integration into wild fisheries is currently lacking. If successful stock enhancement is implemented, the nature of fisheries management changes because the recruitment side of the fisheries equation is under substantial control, rather than just the production side. Management responses will require significant innovation, with a renewed emphasis on understanding the stock, rather than policing the fishers. By way of illustration, recent initiatives and key challenges encountered in Australian invertebrate fisheries are investigated through case studies. An example of a commercially-viable enhancement fishery that reflects solutions to the key challenges is also presented. The review ends with an argument to re-establish the context of stock enhancement in the discipline of ecological enhancement. This is a crucial and positive step forward for it recognises that, in principle, any renewable aquatic ecosystem has the potential to be enhanced instead of just depleted.