改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new agricultural policy. The results show that China’s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD’s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.     

成都市新津县城乡建设用地增减挂钩农民安置区人居环境满意度分析

通过对成都市新津县3个城乡统筹试点区农民安置区的实地调查,构建了基于客观建设条件与主观满意度的安置区人居环境指标体系,运用模糊综合分析法对主客观两方面因素进行综合分析,得出居民对安置区的满意度及安置区建设条件评价。结果表明:袁山社区居民人居环境满意度及客观建设条件得分最高,其在安置区建设、安置区政策、居民社会经济等方面均优于其他两个社区。对成都市新津县"挂钩"试点区农民安置区的人居环境满意度评价,能从侧面反映出成都市推行"挂钩"政策的具体情况,客观衡量政策实施的优劣程度,发现政策推行过程中的主要问题,对推进区域城乡统筹具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Editorial: Reflections from Ireland

Responses of governance systems to change in coastal and marine ecosystems vary from country to country around the globe. Lessons can be learned from country specific case studies, as national governments strive to adapt and respond to issues of concern. This short paper highlights the benefits of a country-specific, special edition of Marine Policy, with a focus on Ireland. Despite the uniqueness of socio-ecological setting, many of the issues faced by policy makers in Ireland, such as the reconciliation of economic development and conservation needs, are shared elsewhere. This special edition was produced at the end of the ‘Celtic Tiger’ in Ireland. As a result, it reflects an era when economic development was very much a priority. The same period represented an unparalleled investment in marine science since the foundation of the State in 1922. Despite this, the papers in the Special Edition point to varying degrees of progress in policy integration and implementation. Papers covering a range of sectors (fisheries, ocean energy, conservation and fisheries) and disciplines (economics, science and management) will be of interest to academics, policy makers, students and practitioners of marine policy.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

美国全球变化数据共享的经历对我国数据共享决策的启示

美国对国家投资获取的科学数据采取"完全与开放"的共享政策。这一政策分两步落实：第一步侧重于数据中心建设。由NASA在全国优选 9个数据中心组成国家级分布式数据中心群（DAACs）。第二步侧重于法规和网络共享建设。由白宫设立总统长期专项---美国全球变化研究项目（USGCRP）,其中包括"全球变化数据信息系统"（GCDIS）。历经十年,建造了世界上最强大的科学数据共享体系：GCDIS。在此过程中,政府主持总体规划,并通过预算、法律法规,以及管理条例使规划得以实施。美国在科学数据共享方面的经验表明：公益性科学数据共享的工作应由国家负责;国家综合使用行政、经济和法律手段执行对该工作的领导;分布式国家级数据中心群是实现科学数据共享经济有效的途径;科学数据与科学研究的结合是科学数据发展的动力。这些对我国科学数据共享工作总体方案的确定和战略方针的选择具有一定的启发和借鉴作用。     

How good is good? Human values and Europe's proposed Marine Strategy Directive

The adoption of the proposed European Marine Strategy Directive is an opportunity for a comprehensive policy for protecting, improving and sustainably using Europe's environmentally degraded seas. It calls for an ecosystem-based approach to management where humans are regarded as a key system component. Although the proposed wording has been the subject of fierce debate, the central policy goal remains achieving "Good Environmental Status". The interpretation of "good" is key to implementation and relates to human values and worldviews. We demonstrate how these vary widely across Europe. Solution of fundamental considerations such as the assignation of reference states, the balance between precautionary and evidence-based action, the degree of subsidiarity, and conservation strategies including marine protected areas, will ultimately depend upon public understanding, involvement in and support for the Directive. The social element, critical to effective adaptive management, requires greater attention within the context of a regional seas geographical framework.     

特低渗透裂缝型储层注水开发中后期地应力场变化及开发对策

从特低渗透裂缝型储层油田开发实践中暴露出来的问题入手,从理论上研究了注水开发中后期地下储层水平应力场“均一化”的发展趋势,认为注水开发中后期井区局部视水平最小主应力,随着注水开发周期的延长将会无限接近水平最大主应力。在此基础上描述了特低渗透储层发育天然裂缝和不发育天然裂缝时注入水的流动规律。最后根据水平应力场注水开发中后期“均一化”理论,提出针对特低渗透裂缝储层注水开发中后期的调整对策。此项技术在大庆头台油田茂11区块进行应用,取得了比较好的调整效果,并对同类油田开发具有重要指导作用。     

红三角地区农产品虚拟水的计算分析

农业是世界上最大的水资源利用部门,各种农产品中“寄存”了大量的水资源,蕴涵在产品生产和各种服务中的水资源就是产品或服务中的虚拟水.以红三角地区为例,分析了郴州市、韶关市、赣州市主要农产品的演变特征,计算了主要农产品的虚拟水含量及消费情况,在此基础上探讨了红三角地区农产品的战略性调整和水资源有效配置的政策意义.计算表明,不同区域生产同类型农产品所耗费的水资源不同,加上消费数量的差异,使居民人均农产品虚拟水消费也存在明显差异.红三角地区水资源富足的地区可通过农产品贸易方式更好地发挥区域水资源优势,主动开发和生产高效益的水资源密集型农产品;对局地水资源缺乏的山区,需要通过农产品生产的战略性调整,通过购入水资源密集型农产品,大力发展高效益的特色农业,实现生态-经济-水的良性循环.     

我国海洋产业结构分析及产业优化对策

利用海洋统计数据分析我国海洋产业结构的现状与变化趋势,采用相关分析、灰色相关分析等计量经济学方法,确定影响海洋产业发展的相关因素,根据《海洋经济发展规划纲要》的要求,应用产业经济理论、产业关联理论、区域经济和海陆经济一体化理论系统分析目前我国海洋产业结构中存在的问题并提出海洋产业的优化对策。     

Cultural policy in Singapore: negotiating economic and socio-cultural agendas

In this paper, I examine the role of cultural policy in a newly industrialised economy, which is at the same time a state with a short history and only nascent beginnings in nation-building and efforts to construct a distinctive cultural identity. Using Singapore as the site of analyses, develop an understanding of the intersection between the economic and socio-cultural agendas behind cultural development policies. I illustrate the hegemony of the economic, supported by the ideology and language of pragmatism and globalisation. At the same time, I explore the reception of and attempts to negotiate (and at times, contest) state policies by “cultural practitioners” – artists, dancers, playwrights, actors, directors and so forth, illustrating the disjuncture between state policies and practitioners' ideals. This may be cast as a conflict between social and cultural development priorities as envisaged by the practitioners as opposed to economic development priorities as embodied in the state’s cultural economic policies.