利用本体的WFS要素语义检索研究

为了实现基于多源WFS服务要素层次的语义检索,提出了一个要素本体的五元模型。在此框架下,研究了要素本体的自动构建方法,形式化定义了要素的空间关系,并扩展了逻辑关系以及空间关系的推理规则来实现要素层次的联合推理检索,并给出了联合规则推理的要素语义检索算法。实例证明,本文方法对多源WFS的语义查询具有实际的可行性,为多源WFS服务要素的语义检索提供了一个新的方法。     

基于不精确推理的GES辅助决策系统研究

介绍了地理专家系统(GES)辅助决策系统的构建原理与实现方法,讨论了GES中专家知识的表示方法与推理控制策略。系统将领域专家知识划分成不同的层次和类型,采用框架网络数据结构和产生式规则表示地理学领域专家的专门性知识与经验性知识,使知识的表示简洁易于理解。在知识的推理策略中引入不精确推理机制,保证了推理机制的实现。以乌鲁木齐河流域为试验区,阐述了流域土地合理利用规划决策专家知识的表示方法,以及专家知识表示的基本规则和系统专家知识的组织方式。     

点云数据的多几何面片特征自动识别

针对人工构筑物丰富的面片特征,提出一种基于局部采样优化的多种几何面片（平面、柱面、球面）点云数据分割方法。该方法首先利用三维格网建立点云数据的空间划分,然后根据随机采样点确定局部格网单元,在格网单元内部拟合多种几何模型,通过局部打分确定局部候选模型（集）,利用统计推断估算候选模型集的全局打分区间,最终获得当前最优模型及其一致集,从而实现点云数据分割。试验结果表明：该方法能够对富含规则几何特征的人工构筑物进行有效分割。     

Sediment source apportionment in Laurel Hill Creek,PA, using Bayesian chemical mass balance and isotope fingerprinting

A Bayesian chemical mass balance (CMB) approach was used to assess the contribution of potential sources for fluvial samples from Laurel Hill Creek in southwest Pennsylvania. The Bayesian approach provides joint probability density functions of the sources' contributions considering the uncertainties due to source and fluvial sample heterogeneity and measurement error. Both elemental profiles of sources and fluvial samples and ¹³C and ¹⁵N isotopes were used for source apportionment. The sources considered include stream bank erosion, forest, roads and agriculture (pasture and cropland). Agriculture was found to have the largest contribution, followed by stream bank erosion. Also, road erosion was found to have a significant contribution in three of the samples collected during lower‐intensity rain events. The source apportionment was performed with and without isotopes. The results were largely consistent; however, the use of isotopes was found to slightly increase the uncertainty in most of the cases. The correlation analysis between the contributions of sources shows strong correlations between stream bank and agriculture, whereas roads and forest seem to be less correlated to other sources. Thus, the method was better able to estimate road and forest contributions independently. The hypothesis that the contributions of sources are not seasonally changing was tested by assuming that all ten fluvial samples had the same source contributions. This hypothesis was rejected, demonstrating a significant seasonal variation in the sources of sediments in the stream. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于案例挖掘的边坡稳定性智能评价系统研究

虽然边坡灾害治理实践已经积累了大量的成功的或失败的边坡治理工程案例,但这些工程案例产生的大量数据信息未被充分利用与开发,造成了极大的资源浪费。为此,基于边坡工程案例,应用数据挖掘与知识发现和递归的自-组织模糊神经推理网络的方法,初步提出了一种基于案例挖掘的边坡稳定性智能评价系统,并通过案例挖掘的应用实例表明了该系统的有效性和可行性。     

地下水位预测的模糊推理

本文采用模糊逻辑推理方法对地下水位进行预测,收到较好的效果,该方法与其它方法相比提高了预测精度,简化了计算方法。     

The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

Bayesian geological and geophysical data fusion for the construction and uncertainty quantification of 3D geological models

Traditional approaches to develop 3D geological models employ a mix of quantitative and qualitative scientific techniques,which do not fully provide quantification of uncertainty in the constructed models and fail to optimally weight geological field observations against constraints from geophysical data.Here,using the Bayesian Obsidian software package,we develop a methodology to fuse lithostratigraphic field observations with aeromagnetic and gravity data to build a 3D model in a small(13.5 km×13.5 km)region of the Gascoyne Province,Western Australia.Our approach is validated by comparing 3D model results to independently-constrained geological maps and cross-sections produced by the Geological Survey of Western Australia.By fusing geological field data with aeromagnetic and gravity surveys,we show that 89%of the modelled region has>95%certainty for a particular geological unit for the given model and data.The boundaries between geological units are characterized by narrow regions with<95%certainty,which are typically 400-1000 m wide at the Earth's surface and 500-2000 m wide at depth.Beyond~4 km depth,the model requires geophysical survey data with longer wavelengths(e.g.,active seismic)to constrain the deeper subsurface.Although Obsidian was originally built for sedimentary basin problems,there is reasonable applicability to deformed terranes such as the Gascoyne Province.Ultimately,modification of the Bayesian engine to incorporate structural data will aid in developing more robust 3D models.Nevertheless,our results show that surface geological observations fused with geophysical survey data can yield reasonable 3D geological models with narrow uncertainty regions at the surface and shallow subsurface,which will be especially valuable for mineral exploration and the development of 3D geological models under cover.     

不同赋存状态油裂解条件及油裂解型气源灶的正演和反演研究

油裂解型气源灶是一种特殊的气源灶,是优质生烃母质在成气过程中派生出的。烃源岩生成的油主要有3种赋存形式:源内分散状液态烃、源外分散状液态烃和源外富集型液态烃。3种赋存状态液态烃的数量及分配比例受内因和外因多种因素控制,就排油率而言,有机碳含量分别为0.67%、0.62%和10.6%的泥岩、灰岩和油页岩,最大排油率分别为45%、55%和80%。原油与不同介质配样的生气动力学实验表明,不同介质条件下甲烷的生成活化能分布有差异,碳酸盐岩对油裂解条件影响最大,可大大降低其活化能,导致原油裂解热学条件降低,体现为油裂解温度的降低;泥岩次之,砂岩影响最小。碳酸盐岩、泥岩和砂岩对油的催化裂解作用依次减弱,不同介质条件下主生气期对应的Ro值:纯原油1.5%～3.8%;碳酸盐岩中的分散原油1.2%～3.2%;泥岩中的分散原油1.3%～3.4%;砂岩中的分散原油1.4%～3.6%。油裂解型气源灶是一种中间体,可以直观看到的是原生气源灶和由此形成的气藏,而对油裂解型气源灶的赋存形式、分布范围、成气数量和储量规模等问题,只能通过正演和反演的研究去确定且相互映证。正演研究以塔里木盆地中下寒武统为例,原始生油量2232.24×108t,剩余油量806.21×108t,油裂解气量106.95×1012m3。反演研究以川东北飞仙关组白云岩中油裂解气为例,圈定的古油藏面积约735km2,古油藏原油数量45×108t,油裂解气量及油裂解气资源量分别为2.72×1012m3和1.36×1012m3。     

Setting minimum head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria in chironomid-based inference models

Criteria for removing training set lakes and taxa in chironomidbased inference models, due to low abundances, have largely been ad hoc. We used an anoxia inference model and a hypolimnetic oxygen model from southcentral Ontario to determine what effect subfossil head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria have on fossil inference statistics. Results from six training set lakes suggest that a minimum abundance of 40–50 head capsules is sufficient for use in inference models, however more diverse samples likely require more than 50 head capsules. Taxa deletion criteria substantially improved the predictive ability of inference models (lowered the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP)). The common practice of including taxa with only 2% abundance in at least two lakes was one of the deletion criteria that much improved inference models. Similar deletion criteria, such as 2% in at least 3 lakes and 3% in at least 1 lake, produced comparable improvements (up to 18% reduction in RMSEP).