几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

信息时代地图技术美的研究与实践

通过分析现代地图表现形式及存在的问题，探讨了信息时代地图制图技术美的含义和地图技术美的表现形式。并在技术美创新理念指导下，对利用计算机技术和图形图像处理技术来改进地图符号设计，提高地图表现力进行了一些理论探讨和技术尝试．同时也得到了一些有益的启示。     

岩石水压致裂和诱发地震的实验研究

用7种岩石各制备了几类不同预裂纹的系列试件，并在不同围压下进行水压致裂强度实验。结合典型的水库诱发地震的实际资料和现今构造应力场的实验结果，以及应用岩石强度理论和岩石断裂力学的一些原理、方法，进行岩石孔隙水压诱发地震的探讨。初步结果为：(1)若岩体内构造应力很小，一定大小的孔隙水压力σp，可直接使岩体内的薄弱面致裂并发生小地震。(2)若构造应力较大，存在两类诱发地震的可能：①对岩体浅部一些走向与构造应力的主压应力σ1方向相近的薄弱面，σp可促使其发生张性破裂并诱发小地震。②当构造应力接近于断裂的抗剪强度时，因σp，降低了断裂面上的正应力σn，使原处于稳定状态的断裂失稳，发生滑移破裂并诱发出地震。σp导致断裂的破裂深度增大，使诱发地震的震级大于原潜在的地震震级。(3)各种岩体均存在着一个极限深度，此深度后不再有诱发地震。     

Changes in the spatial scale of Beijing UHI and urban development

The seasonal and interannual variations of Beijing urban heat island (UHI) are investigated in this paper using the temperature data from 1960 to 2000 at 20 meteorological stations in the Beijing region, and then the relationship between the intensity and spatial scale of UHI and Beijing urbanization indices is analyzed and discussed. Main conclusions are the followings. First, Beijing UHI shows obvious seasonal variations, and it is strongest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer. The seasonal variation of the UHI mainly occurs in the urban area. The UHI intensity at the center of Beijing is more than 0.8℃ in winter, and only 0.5℃ in summer. Second, the intensity of Beijing HUI exhibits a clear interannual warming trend with its mean growth rate (MGR) being 0.3088℃/10 a. The MGR of HUI is largest in winter, next in spring and autumn, and least in summer, and the urban temperature increase makes a major contribution to the growth of HUI intensity. Third, since the Reform and Opening, the urbanization indices have grown several ten times or even one hundred times, the intensity of HUI has increased dramatically, and its spatial scale also expanded distinctively along with the expansion of urban architectural complexes. Fourth, the interannual variation of urbanization indices is very similar with that of HUI intensity, and their linear correlation coefficients are significant at a more than 0.001 confidence level.     

Use of time series analysis for the identification of tidal effect on groundwater in the coastal area of Kimje, Korea

The purpose of this study is to apply time series analysis to investigate whether the groundwater quality in the coastal area is affected by the tide. Continuous and regular in situ monitoring data of electrical conductivity (EC) and groundwater level, and tidal level data measured by the National Oceanographic Research Institute were used for the time series analysis. Through the time series analysis, it is known that EC and groundwater level conspicuously fluctuate with two periodicities (15.4 and 0.52-day), which is very similar to those of the tide. Also the behaviors of their fluctuations vary in accordance with the tidal period. These indicate that the groundwater quality has been mainly controlled by the tidal level, and the strength of tidal effect on the groundwater quality is different according to the tidal period.     

三江并流世界自然遗产地旅游地质景观成景地质作用初步分析

三江并流世界自然遗产地丰富独特的旅游地质景观是多种地质作用与不同成景岩组交互叠加作用的结果。其发育的地层基础主要为碳酸盐成景岩组、变质岩成景岩组、碎屑岩成景岩组以及岩浆岩成景岩组等,典型内力成景地质作用为板块缝合作用、断裂成景作用、变质成景作用,外力作用则主要有河流、冰川、丹霞、地热、喀斯特作用等。     

长江漫滩区深大异形基坑施工对紧邻特大型桥梁影响及变形控制研究

随着地下空间资源的开发利用,越来越多深基坑呈现出开挖深、规模大、形状不规则等特点,其支护结构设计复杂,施工难度大,具有明显的空间效应。本文以南京地铁某基坑工程为例,分析基坑施工对邻近桥梁的影响。其场区位于长江下游漫滩相二元结构地层分布地段,上部软土层厚度大,下部承压含水层地下水位高、水量丰富,地质条件复杂,该基坑为典型的深大异形基坑,距离某大桥的双曲拱引桥仅为7. 2 m,由于之前桥梁已遭受其他地下工程施工产生的较大变形,所以后续工程对其影响变形控制要求极高。为此,该车站基坑支护结构设计基于地下空间实际功能采用设置分隔墙分区开挖及MJS超深工法墙综合变形控制方案。本文通过有限元数值模拟计算,开展复杂环境下基坑开挖引起的围护结构及桥梁桩基的变形预测分析,计算结果显示,该深大狭长异形基坑开挖对邻近桥梁沉降变形影响显著,通过设置分隔墙分区开挖及MJS工法墙进行变形控制,能够较好地控制基坑的空间效应,减少“长边效应”、“异形效应”等对桥梁沉降变形的影响。通过现场基坑开挖过程实际监测结果,验证这一综合变形控制方案的可行性。该研究成果对于类似复杂地质条件下深大狭长异形基坑的支护及施工设计具有很好的借鉴意义。     

基于ROSE2.0的普洱地区CINRAD/CC雷达冰雹探测算法评估及参数本地化

为提高冰雹探测算法（Hail Detection Algorithm,HDA）产品的可用性,针对2015—2020年普洱地区监测到的22次冰雹个例,利用新一代雷达业务应用软件ROSE2.0对相关雷达基数据进行回放及产品分析,以命中率、虚警率、临界成功指数为指标对HDA算法在普洱地区的识别效果进行评估并给出本地化参数配置方案。结果表明:HDA算法在普洱地区命中率接近100%,但虚警现象非常普遍,使用强冰雹概率（Probability of Severe Hail,POSH）的预警效果优于任意大小冰雹概率（Probability of Hail,POH）,且冰雹尺寸越大POSH虚警的概率越低。进一步使用模拟测评法对POSH算法的适配参数进行分析,发现正确输入降雹日当天的0 ℃层和-20 ℃层高度能有效减少POSH的虚警率及提高临界成功指数;同时使算法预测的最大冰雹直径普遍偏大的情况得到控制,其中,中小冰雹直径偏离百分比减小76.07%,改善效果显著高于大冰雹。此外,增大反射率因子及POSH阈值能有效控制虚警,但也导致漏报次数快速增加,当阈值太大时命中率明显降低,为了保证较高的命中率和临界成功指数,选择Z=50 dBz或POSH=70%为阈值能明显改善HDA算法的识别效果。     

延庆地震台地电阻率改造影响的分析研究

对延庆地震台地电阻率的观测系统进行改造后的变化特征进行了初步研究,介绍了电极和外线路改造技术环节,并通过改造前后观测资料的对比分析对改造后的观测系统情况进行了评价。     

基于连续消光特征分析的岩石薄片分析系统

连续消光是指在正交偏光显微镜下,岩石薄片随载物台旋转而发生消光强弱连续变化的现象.作为人工鉴定岩石薄片的重要依据,提取后的连续消光特征可以用于实现岩石薄片的自动分析.结合数字图像处理技术与聚类划分算法,开发出一套能够分割出孔隙、颗粒轮廓,实现颗粒类别划分,并对结果做定量分析的岩石薄片分析系统.从矿物的消光特征本质出发,...