Computational and rapid expected annual loss estimation methodologies for structures

Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

主余震作用下山地掉层框架结构的易损性分析

一次强震过后通常伴有多次余震发生,由于主震和其后续余震之间的间隔时间较短,使得主震损伤结构未能得到及时修复而进一步遭受余震作用,产生“二次损伤”。山地结构的受力性能与普通结构有显著差别。参考我国现行规范设计了具有代表性的3个不同掉层数与掉跨数的山地掉层框架结构及1个普通平地框架结构,采用增量动力分析方法,以Park-Ang损伤指数作为结构响应参数DM,以PGA作为地震动强度参数IM,给出了掉层结构以及平地结构在主余震作用下的易损性曲线,对比分析了掉层结构与平地结构的易损性,研究了余震对各结构易损性的附加影响。基于抗倒塌储备系数(CMR)评价了结构的抗倒塌能力,比较了各结构的抗震倒塌安全储备。结果表明:余震会提高结构的超越概率,且随着余震强度的提高,超越概率越大;掉层结构的超越概率更高,且掉层数与掉跨数对结构地震易损性的影响较大;与平地结构相比,山地掉层结构抗倒塌储备系数较小,抗倒塌安全储备较低。对于掉层结构,掉跨数与掉层数的增加均会降低结构的抗倒塌安全储备,且掉层数对CMR的影响更大。     

Incessant excitation of the Earth's free oscillations: global comparison of superconducting gravimeter records

Records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs) at Canberra (Australia), Esashi (Japan), Metsähovi (Finland) and Syowa Stations (Antarctica) were analyzed to search for further evidence of background free oscillations of the Earth. Spectrograms for 1-year period and averaged power spectra for seismically quiet periods were obtained for each of the stations. Anomalous features of the oscillations observed at Syowa Station, such as an apparent seasonal variation and a high intensity at frequencies between 3 and 4 mHz, were absent at the other SG stations. Among the SG stations used in this study, the background free oscillations were detected most consistently and distinctly at Canberra, where the noise level was comparable to that at the IDA quietest station, while that at Syowa Station was close to the critical limit for detecting the oscillations. The background free oscillations provide a good reference to evaluate the noise level in the milliHertz band.     

基于IDA方法的框架结构震害风险评估

为了评估不同抗震设防烈度区建筑结构震害风险,即场地地震危险性与结构地震易损性的卷积,本文以典型框架结构为例,对其震害风险进行研究。依据抗震设计规范,分别按照6度、7度和8度设计3个3跨10层框架结构模型,采用动力增量分析方法（Incremental Dynamic Analysis,IDA）对其进行地震易损性分析。同时,基于我国地震烈度概率分布特点,应用MATLAB软件生成符合极值Ⅲ型分布的地震烈度,并将其转化为地震加速度峰值,联合地震易损性结果评估模型震害风险。通过划分震害风险等级,为建筑结构抗震防灾对策的制定提供借鉴。     

基于IDA方法的交河故城金刚宝座式塔土建筑遗址地震易损性分析

增量动力分析（IDA）作为动力形式的静力推覆法,被广泛应用于建筑结构的抗震能力分析和性能评估中,但其在土建筑遗址地震易损性分析中的应用甚少。基于IDA方法尝试对交河故城塔林区金刚宝座式塔土建筑遗址进行在地震作用下的易损性和抗震能力分析,以谱加速度S_a（T₁,5%）作为地震动强度指标,最大层间位移角θ_max作为结构损伤指标进行IDA分析,得到土建筑遗址在一系列调幅地震动作用下的IDA曲线、地震需求概率模型和易损性曲线,计算出模型的倒塌率和CMR值。通过以上分析得出金刚宝座式塔的易损性和抗震能力,为今后土建筑遗址抗震保护提供理论基础和分析思路。     

应用弹塑性反应谱对IDA方法的改进研究

针对传统IDA方法中结构的加速度反应远高于SPO分析结果的现象,采用弹塑性反应谱作为IDA的烈度度量,同时给出随地震烈度改变而不断变化的屈服强度系数,提出了改进的IDA方法,更有效地考虑了结构的非线性地震反应特征。实际工程分析表明,改进的IDA方法能够体现结构的非线性受力反应,同时兼顾结构的动力反应特征,与SPO曲线和由规范计算得到的结构承载力有更好的可比较性。     

钢框架结构地震响应与破坏过程的耐震时程分析

耐震时程法（ETM）是一种基于动力时程的结构抗震分析方法,其典型表征在于随着持续时间的增加,地震动强度逐渐增大。本文合成了基于中国抗震反应谱的耐震时程曲线,并以此作为输入,对一个8层3跨钢框架结构的抗震性能进行了分析和评估。采用增量动力分析方法（IDA）对结构在不同耐震持时下的整体响应进行了评估;以大震下天然地震动分析结果为标准,对比了结构在耐震时程曲线（ETA）作用下的塑性铰分布概率、形成顺序和延性分布。研究结果表明：耐震时程法能较好地预测钢框架结构的非线性动力响应及破坏过程,且分析次数少,这为钢框架结构的抗震性能快速分析与评估提供了一种新的手段。     

基于IDA方法的小雁塔结构抗震性能评估

以小雁塔结构为原型,通过试验研究建立其材料本构模型;应用IDA分析方法,建立IDA分析曲线并对小雁塔结构进行增量动力弹塑性分析,判断小雁塔结构的最不利位置,定义IDA分析的极限状态;将IDA曲线的斜率下降幅值与小雁塔结构性能水准相对应,划分小雁塔结构的性能水准指标;通过对小雁塔结构在增量地震动强度作用下地震响应分析和不同性能状态下各层的楼层位移和层间位移角的变化规律,对小雁塔结构进行了抗震性能评估;研究表明:基于IDA分析方法的小雁塔抗震性能评估可以考虑结构抗震能力的随机因素,精确地描述小雁塔结构在地震过程中的行为。该方法为类似砖石古塔结构的抗震性能评估提供了新途径。