“98.7”暴雨β中尺度低涡生成发展结构演变:双向四重嵌套网格模拟

用非静力中尺度模式MM5.V3全物理湿过程和双向四重嵌套网格技术及四维资料同化分析张弛方法,对1998年7月20～22日(简称"98.7")鄂东武汉沿江地区特大暴雨进行了36 h数值模拟,结果大大改进了原二重和三重嵌套网格的模拟,特别是水平分辨率为2 km的嵌套子域D04能更正确地模拟出暴雨的落区及雨强中心,进而揭示了强暴雨β中尺度系统发生和发展的结构及演变. 其主要结果包括(1)β中尺度切变线在鄂东沿江低空强烈发展及辐合中心的出现与其β中尺度低涡的形成和发展直接关联.(2)β中尺度切变线强烈发展的垂直结构强辐合层和强辐散层复式迭置并与强上升运动耦合发展;强涡度层和强位涡度层与强辐合层互伴发展;低空湿位温中心与中空饱和水汽带共存.(3)β中尺度低涡生成的垂直结构散度和上升运动均呈双支柱状发展;涡度和位涡度均呈单支柱状发展;高湿能柱呈双支耦合发展,水汽通道呈阶梯斜升状.(4)β中尺度低涡发展的垂直结构V字型散度柱和上升运动柱互耦发展;涡度和位涡度呈双支柱状;双支高湿能柱强烈发展,阶梯斜升水汽通道变宽增厚.至此低涡发展达最强,其结构具有典型性.模拟结果还指出,发展时空分辨率更高的多重嵌套网格模拟技术和应用四维资料同化方法,将有助于更细致的了解β中尺度强对流系统发生和发展的结构及其演变,并能进一步提高对暴雨落区及雨强的预报水平.     

GENERALIZED WAVE EQUATION FINITE ELEMENT METHOD FOR SOLVING TWO-DIMENSIONAL TIDAL WAVES

The study of tidal circulation has a long history . The numerical simulation of tidal flow has been developed greatly with the development of computer techniques in the past two decades. The generalized wave equation finite-element method is a relatively new numerical model for studying shallow water flow . This method was used to simulate tidal waves of the Gulf of St. Lawrence in Canada . The very good agreement of the numerical results with the field data indicated that the model is an effective and promising numerical method for solving two-dimensional tidal wave problems .     

MESOSCALE NONLINEAR GRAVITATIONAL WAVES AND THEIR INTERACTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR FLOW*

Interaction equations of two nonlinear gravitational waves in baroclinic atmosphere are presented via multi-scale perturbation method,which can be classified into coupling nonlinear Schrodinger equations.In particular,the interaction course of two nonlinear gravitational waves of basic flow in vertical linear and quadratic shear is illustrated.Numerical calculation displays that wave amplitude enlarges and wave width narrows when two solitary gravitational waves meet and chase;that basic flow with single shear is more beneficial than that with quadratic shear to the interaction of two nonlinear wave packets;and that the interaction of two wave packets makes wave shape change more greatly and energy more dispersive,which contributes to the occurrence of changeable weather.Therefore,one of the probable mechanisms for the appearance of strong convection weather is the interaction between mesoscale nonlinear gravitational waves.     

A Free Boundary Problem Related to the Location of Volcanic Gas Sources

A mathematical model of general gas emitting systems is derived, and a sample of relevant mathematical results is offered. The present paper indicates that shallow subsurface gas sources in typical volcanic areas can be located if appropriate physico-chemical measurements are made on the Earths surface and put to use.     

On the use of STF-tensors in celestial mechanics

The purpose of this article is to emphasize the usefulness of STF-tensors in celestial mechanics. Using STF-mass multipole moments and Cartesian coordinates the derivations of equations of motion, the interaction- and tidal-potentials for an isolated system ofN arbitrarily shaped and composed, purely gravitationally interacting bodies are particularly simple. Using simple relations between STF-tensors and spherical harmonics it is shown how all Cartesian formulas can be converted easily into the usual spherical representations. Some computational aspects of STF-tensors and spherical harmonics are discussed. A list of useful formulas for STF-tensors is provided.     

A unified formulation for the three-dimensional shallow water equations using orthogonal co-ordinates: theory and application

In this paper, the formulations of the primitive equations for shallow water flow in various horizontal co-ordinate systems and the associated finite difference grid options used in shallow water flow modelling are reviewed. It is observed that horizontal co-ordinate transformations do not affect the chosen co-ordinate system and representation in the vertical, and are the same for the three- and two-dimensional cases. A systematic derivation of the equations in tensor notation is presented, resulting in a unified formulation for the shallow water equations that covers all orthogonal horizontal grid types of practical interest. This includes spherical curvilinear orthogonal co-ordinate systems on the globe. Computational efficiency can be achieved in a single computer code. Furthermore, a single numerical algorithmic code implementation satisfies. All co-ordinate system specific metrics are determined as part of a computer-aided model grid design, which supports all four orthogonal grid types. Existing intuitive grid design and visual interpretation is conserved by appropriate conformal mappings, which conserve spherical orthogonality in planar representation. A spherical curvilinear co-ordinate solution of wind driven steady channel flow applying a strongly distorted grid is shown to give good agreement with a regular spherical co-ordinate model approach and the solution based on a β-plane approximation. Especially designed spherical curvilinear boundary fitted model grids are shown for typhoon surge propagation in the South China Sea and for ocean-driven flows through Malacca Straits. By using spherical curvilinear grids the number of grid points in these single model grid applications is reduced by a factor of 50–100 in comparison with regular spherical grids that have the same horizontal resolution in the area of interest. The spherical curvilinear approach combines the advantages of the various grid approaches, while the overall computational effort remains acceptable for very large model domains.     

The contribution of Very Long Baseline Interferometry to ITRF2005

The contribution of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) to the ITRF2005 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2005) has been computed by the IVS Analysis Coordinator’s office at the Geodetic Institute of the University of Bonn, Germany. For this purpose the IVS Analysis Centres (ACs) provided datum-free normal equation matrices in Solution INdependent EXchange (SINEX) format for each 24 h observing session to be combined on a session-by-session basis by a stacking procedure. In this process, common sets of parameters, transformed to identical reference epochs and a prioris, and especially representative relative weights have been taken into account for each session. In order to assess the quality of the combined IVS files, Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) and scaling factors have been derived from the combined normal equation matrices. The agreement of the EOPs of the combined normal equation matrices with those of the individual ACs in terms of weighted root mean square (WRMS) is in the range of 50–60 μas for the two polar motion components and about 3 μs for UT1−UTC. External comparisons with International GNSS Serive (IGS) polar motion components is at the level of 130–170 μas and 21 μs/day for length of day (LOD). The scale of the terrestrial reference frame realized through the IVS SINEX files agrees with ITRF2000 at the level of 0.2 ppb.     

具有守恒特性的二维溃坝洪水演进数值模型

基于结构网格,采用有限体积法建立了二维水动力学模型,模拟溃坝洪水在复杂实际地形条件下的流动过程。该模型采用中心迎风格式求解界面通量,并结合对界面变量的线性重构,使其具有空间上的二阶精度。分别采用中心差分方法和半隐式方法对底床坡度项和摩擦阻力项进行离散,保证了模型的和谐性和稳定性。对于复杂地形条件下溃坝洪水的模拟,负水深的产生是影响模型稳定的关键因素。当库朗特数小于0.25时,模型能够保证任何时刻的计算水深都是非负的,而无需对负水深单元进行特殊处理。因此,相比于现有的大部分溃坝洪水模型,该模型具有更强的鲁棒性和稳定性。     

Climate,conflict and forced migration

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.     

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