水文模型研究综述

水文模型是水文学发展到一定阶段的产物。依照水文系统的概念,给水文模型下了一个粗略的定义。在初步分析水文模型发展历程的基础上,划分了水文模型的发展阶段。汇总了水文模型的11种分类。依照系统理论模型、概念性模型和分布式模型的分类标准,对各类水文模型的优缺点进行了分析和比较,并探讨了水文模型的可能发展方向。     

Calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins based on satellite radar altimetry observations of river water level

This paper proposes a new orientation to address the problem of hydrological model calibration in ungauged basin. Satellite radar altimetric observations of river water level at basin outlet are used to calibrate the model, as a surrogate of streamflow data. To shift the calibration objective, the hydrological model is coupled with a hydraulic model describing the relation between streamflow and water stage. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in the Upper Mississippi Basin using TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite data. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is employed for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We found that even without any streamflow information for regulating model behavior, the calibrated hydrological model can make fairly reasonable streamflow estimation. In order to illustrate the degree of additional uncertainty associated with shifting calibration objective and identifying its sources, the posterior distributions of hydrological parameters derived from calibration based on T/P data, streamflow data and T/P data with fixed hydraulic parameters are compared. The results show that the main source is the model parameter uncertainty. And the contribution of remote sensing data uncertainty is minor. Furthermore, the influence of removing high error satellite observations on streamflow estimation is also examined. Under the precondition of sufficient temporal coverage of calibration data, such data screening can eliminate some unrealistic parameter sets from the behavioral group. The study contributes to improve streamflow estimation in ungauged basin and evaluate the value of remote sensing in hydrological modeling. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

连环湖马圈泡沉积物重金属污染及潜在生态风险

通过对连环湖马圈泡柱状沉积物重金属（Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb、Zn、Cd）等地球化学指标的分析, 对马圈泡沉积物污染历史进行了讨论。根据元素的变化趋势,结合颗粒组成指标,采用相关分析,富集状况及潜在生态风险评价,并辅以²¹⁰Pb、¹³⁷Cs测年数据,研究了自1937年以来该湖区沉积物重金属元素污染特征、来源、污染历史及污染程度。结果表明,1987年以前各元素含量变化趋势平稳,1987年至今,7种重金属元素含量均明显增加。重金属元素的来源包括自然来源和人为输入。从单向污染系数来看Cu、Ni、Cr、Pb、Zn属于中等污染强度,Mn、Cd达到了强污染程度;从综合污染系数来看,表层重金属元素主要为中等程度的污染。沉积物重金属污染历史与该区经济发展阶段相吻合可为其湖区生态环境的整治与改善提供基础性的数据资料。     

美国“孤立湿地”保护中的“候鸟规则”及对我国湿地保护的启示

在美国,孤立湿地与可通航水域没有水文联系,被认为不属于《清洁水法》中的“水域”,联邦无权管辖。为此,陆军工程兵团制定“候鸟规则”,作为对孤立湿地行使管辖权的依据。美国“孤立湿地”保护中的“候鸟规则”对我国的启示在于:(1)应从水文学角度界定孤立湿地,孤立湿地是指与其它水体缺乏联系、相对孤立的湿地,这更符合我国湿地政策的现状;(2)人工“孤立湿地”受保护,除了需满足一定的水文条件,还须是野生动物事实上的栖息地,不应限于建立“栖息地档案”意义下的野生动物栖息地或纳入野生动物重要栖息地名录的栖息地;(3)孤立的人工湿地如果是国家重点保护野生动物栖息地,其管辖权应由中央行使;(4)国家重点保护野生动物栖息地外的其他孤立湿地,面积达到35 hm2以上,也应由中央管辖。     

Isotope hydrogeochemical models for assessing the hydrological processes in a part of the largest continental flood basalts province of India

Continental Flood Basalts (CFB) occupy one fourth of the world’s land area. Hence, it is important to discern the hydrological processes in this complex hydrogeological setup for the sustainable water resources development. A model assisted isotope, geochemical, geospatial and geophysical study was conducted to understand the monsoonal characteristics, recharge processes, renewability and geochemical evolution in one of the largest continental flood basalt provinces of India. HYSPLIT modelling and stable isotopes were used to assess the monsoonal characteristics. Rayleigh distillation model were used to understand the climatic conditions at the time of groundwater recharge. Lumped parameter models (LPM) were employed to quantify the mean transit time (MTT) of groundwater. Statistical and geochemical models were adopted to understand the geochemical evolution along the groundwater flow path. A geophysical model was used to understand the geometry of the aquifer. The back trajectory analysis confirms the isotopic finding that precipitation in this region is caused by orographic uplifting of air masses originating from the Arabian Sea. Stable isotopic data of groundwater showed its meteoric origin and two recharge processes were discerned; (i) quick and direct recharge by precipitation through fractured and weathered basalt, (ii) low infiltration through the clayey black cotton soil and subjected to evaporation prior to the recharge. Tritium data showed that the groundwater is a renewable source and have shorter transit times (from present day to <30 years). The hydrogeochemical study indicated multiple sources/processes such as: the minerals dissolution, silicate weathering, ion exchange, anthropogenic influences etc. control the chemistry of the groundwater. Based on the geo-electrical resistivity survey, the potential zones (weathered and fractured) were delineated for the groundwater development. Thus, the study highlights the usefulness of model assisted isotopic hydrogeochemical techniques for understanding the recharge and geochemical processes in a basaltic aquifer system.     

陆面过程对气候影响的数值模拟:SSiB与IAP/LASG L9R15 AGCM耦合及其模式性能

利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好地定量描述土壤 -植被 -大气连续体系 ( SPAC)中能量和水分的传输过程。因此 ,将其引入气候模式中能够模拟出比 CTL- AGCM更合理的气候平均状态、水汽分布以及水汽输送的气候特征 ,特别是亚洲夏季风水汽输送独特的地域性 ,再现了大气环流 ,尤其是陆面气候的基本特征。并指出 ,陆面过程参数化的引进及其陆面状况的变化显著地改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。利用改进的再循环降水模式 ,进一步研究了陆面过程参数化明显改进降水模拟的物理机制。指出全球陆地 ,特别是盛夏北半球干旱、半干旱地区的再循环降水率明显减小 ,与陆面上表面潜热通量的显著减小区一致 ,从而克服了许多未耦合陆面过程的 AGCMs因对地表水过程非常简单地参数化导致的普遍存在着整个陆地降水偏高 ,改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。因此 ,在充分耦合的陆气环流模式中模拟的降水分布与实况接近。     

水文学与水力学相结合的南四湖洪水预报模型

南四湖流域是一个复杂的大流域，是东线南水北调的重要调节湖泊之一，也是干旱和洪水频繁流域．本文首先采 用分布式的新安江模型，对有实测流量资料的支流流域进行了模型参数率定，洪量预报达到了一定的精度，建立了南四湖 流域的洪水预报模型．采用一维、二维水力学模型并与水文学模型耦合进行上级湖的流量演进以及二级坝水利枢纽的 调度．     

Marsh benthic Foraminifera response to estuarine hydrological balance driven by climate variability over the last 2000 yr (Minho estuary,NW Portugal)

A high-resolution study of a marsh sedimentary sequence from the Minho estuary provides a new palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from NW Iberian based on geological proxies supported by historical and instrumental climatic records. A low-salinity tidal flat, dominated by Trochamminita salsa, Haplophragmoides spp. and Cribrostomoides spp., prevailed from AD 140–1360 (Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages, Medieval Climatic Anomaly). This sheltered environment was affected by high hydrodynamic episodes, marked by the increase in silt/clay ratio, decrease of organic matter, and poor and weakly preserved foraminiferal assemblages, suggesting enhanced river runoff. The establishment of low marsh began at AD 1380. This low-salinity environment, marked by colder and wet conditions, persisted from AD 1410–1770 (Little Ice Age), when foraminiferal density increased significantly. Haplophragmoides manilaensis and Trochamminita salsa mark the transition from low to high marsh at AD 1730. Since AD 1780 the abundances of salt marsh species (Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata) increased, accompanied by a decrease in foraminiferal density, reflecting climate instability, when droughts alternate with severe floods. SW Europe marsh foraminifera respond to the hydrological balance, controlled by climatic variability modes (e.g., NAO) and solar activity, thus contributing to the understanding of NE Atlantic climate dynamics.     

黄河典型流域分布式水文过程模拟

基于水循环物理过程的分布式水文模型的研究和应用已经成为当前水文学研究的热点之一。本文应用大尺度分布式水文模型SVAT&HYCY ,选择黄河的主要支流洛河卢氏以上流域进行实例研究。根据 1990～ 1996年的资料进行的模拟结果表明 ,模型可以反映流域蒸散发的空间分布特征以及径流的形成过程。但是在模拟的径流值与实测值之间还有一些差异。这种差别一方面是因为实际径流包含了人类活动的影响 ,另一方面 ,空间插值方法是否准确反映模型的输入量 (特别是降水 )的空间分布特征也将影响模拟精度。     

Rainfall-runoff modelling by using SM2RAIN-derived and state-of-the-art satellite rainfall products over Italy

Satellite rainfall products (SRPs) are becoming more accurate with ever increasing spatial and temporal resolution. This evolution can be beneficial for hydrological applications, providing new sources of information and allowing to drive models in ungauged areas. Despite the large availability of rainfall satellite data, their use in rainfall-runoff modelling is still very scarce, most likely due to measurement issues (bias, accuracy) and the hydrological community acceptability of satellite products.In this study, the real-time version (3B42-RT) of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA, and a new SRP based on the application of SM2RAIN algorithm (Brocca et al., 2014) to the ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product, SM2R_ASC, are used to drive a lumped hydrologic model over four basins in Italy during the 4-year period 2010–2013.The need of the recalibration of model parameter values for each SRP is highlighted, being an important precondition for their suitable use in flood modelling. Results shows that SRPs provided, in most of the cases, performance scores only slightly lower than those obtained by using observed data with a reduction of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) less than 30% when using SM2R_ASC product while TMPA is characterized by a significant deterioration during the validation period 2012–2013. Moreover, the integration between observed and satellite rainfall data is investigated as well. Interestingly, the simple integration procedure here applied allows obtaining more accurate rainfall input datasets with respect to the use of ground observations only, for 3 out 4 basins. Indeed, discharge simulations improve when ground rainfall observations and SM2R_ASC product are integrated, with an increase of NS between 2 and 42% for the 3 basins in Central and Northern Italy. Overall, the study highlights the feasibility of using SRPs in hydrological applications over the Mediterranean region with benefits in discharge simulations also in well gauged areas.