Temporal and spatial variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the Xijiang River, South China

A whole year analysis of riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in the Xijiang River (XJR), South China, showed that the mean riverine DOC concentration (1.24 mg L-1) in the XJR was notably lower than the averaged value (5.75 mg L-1) of the global riverine DOC concentration in several major rivers. There is an inconspicuous monthly fluctuation of the DOC signal in the XJR, but on a semi-yearly time scale, however, the riverine DOC concentration had significant difference between hydrological...     

黄河流域未来气候-水文变化的模拟研究

将大尺度半分布式水文模型VIC应用到黄河上中游流域(花园口水文断面以上),并利用区域气候模式RegCM4.0单向嵌套全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1,动力降尺度到黄河流域的模拟结果驱动VIC模型,开展在新的典型浓度路径下(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)黄河流域未来气候和水文变化的离线模拟。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,黄河流域21世纪平均地表气温相对于1971—2000年均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2048年上升1.2—1.5℃,2069—2098年上升2.19—3.9℃。未来年平均降水量有微弱的增大,2019—2048年增幅为6%左右,2069—2098年增幅为1.4%—5.6%。未来蒸发量增大明显,2069—2098年年平均蒸发量最大可增加9.6%。2019—2048年花园口水文站的年平均径流量增大3.4%—7.4%,2069—2098年年平均径流量转为减少,减幅为3.3%—5.3%。黄河上游地区未来气候和水文变化趋势与黄河流域基本一致,但未来年径流量变幅低于黄河流域,相对比较稳定。     

Use of a derived distribution approach for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins: A case study in Italy

A derived distribution approach is developed for flood prediction in poorly gauged basins. This couples information on the expected storm scaling, condensed into Depth Duration Frequency curves, with soil abstractions modeled using Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method and hydrological response through Nash’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph. A simplified framework is given to evaluate critical duration for flood design. Antecedent moisture condition distribution is included. The method is tested on 16 poorly gauged Mediterranean watersheds in Tyrrhenian Liguria, North Western Italy, belonging to a homogeneous hydrological regions. The derived flood distribution is compared to the regional one, currently adopted for flood design. The evaluation of Curve Number is critical for peak flood evaluation and needs to be carefully carried out. This can be done including local Annual Flood Series data in the estimation of the derived distribution, so gathering the greatest available information. However, Curve Number influence decreases for the highest return periods. When considerable return periods are required for flood design and few years of data are available, the derived distribution provides more accurate estimates than the approach based on single site distribution fitting. A strategy based on data availability for application of the approach is then given. The proposed methodology contributes to the ongoing discussion concerning PUB (Prediction in Ungauged Basins) decade of the IAHS association and can be used by researchers and practitioners for those sites where no flood data, or only a few, are available, provided precipitation data and land use information are at hand.     

Assessing conditional extremal risk of flooding in Puerto Rico

We model multivariate hydrological risks in the case that at least one of the variables is extreme. Recently, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extremes. J R Stat Soc B 66(3):497–546 (thereafter called HT04) proposed a conditional multivariate extreme value model which applies to regions where not all variables are extreme and simultaneously identifies the type of extremal dependence, including negative dependence. In this paper we apply this modeling strategy and provide an application to multivariate observations of five rivers in two clearly distinct regions of Puerto Rico Island and for two different seasons each. This effective dimensionality of ten-dimensions cannot be handled by the traditional models of multivariate extremes. The resulting fitted model, following HT04 model and strategies of estimation, is able to make long term estimation of extremes, conditional than other rivers are extreme or not. The model shows considerable flexibility to address the natural questions that arise in multivariate extreme value assessments. In the Puerto Rico 5 rivers application, the model clearly puts together two regions one of two rivers and another of three rivers, which show strong relationships in the rainy season. This corresponds with the geographical distribution of the rivers.

营口市滨海大道地质灾害危险性综合评估与防治措施

营口市滨海大道工程属于重要项目,建设用地所处地质环境为中等—复杂区,现状地质灾害主要类型为崩塌灾害。通过对危险性起决定作用的地形条件、地层岩性、构造地震、人类活动4方面因素的分析,该地区地质灾害危险性分级属危险性小级,地质灾害危险性分区属于危险性小区,因而在采取措施条件下适宜路桥建设,并提出了防治措施,为施工建设打下了基础。     

吉林西部地区高砷地下水砷的阈值分析及风险评价

高砷地下水导致的砷中毒是吉林西部地区近年来新发现的地方病。为评价饮用水中砷对人体健康产生的潜在危害,在野外调查、采样分析的基础上,开展了水砷安全阈值分析 ,确定了砷的总质量浓度0.05 mg/L为研究区的水砷安全阈值,建立了地下水健康风险评价模型,进行了地下水砷健康风险评价。结果表明:研究区地下水砷引起的个人年均风险度最高达2.11×10^-3 a^-1,其中高砷的第四系承压水中97.06%的采样点水砷对人体的个人年均致癌风险度,大于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受值5.0×10^-5 a^-1;作为备用水源的第三系大安组、泰康组承压水69.57%采样点砷的致癌风险度也超过最大可接受风险水平。通过对风险度评价结果与砷中毒病情等资料的对比分析,风险评价结果与砷中毒病情基本一致,验证了评价结果的合理性。     

某核反应堆预选区含水介质渗透性变化特征

在简要介绍预选区水文地质条件基础上,主要通过压水试验、抽水试验等水文地质试验得出各种水文地质参数从而分析预选区含水介质渗透性变化特征以及地层渗透性变化规律。     

长沙市固体废弃物处理场水文地质及环境效应评价

为了解垃圾填埋场周边地下水环境污染状况,以长沙市固体废弃物处理场周边土壤、地下水及下游水库水质为研究对象,对研究区进行采样分析,采用单因子污染指数法和内梅罗污染综合指数法对该垃圾填埋场周边环境重金属含量特征进行分析与风险评价。结果表明：As、Cr（Ⅵ）、Ni、Pb、Zn、Cu重金属是填埋场周边环境中的主要污染物,区域采样点及下游水库中重金属含量均值低于地下水质量标准Ⅲ类,填埋场区污染状况良好;Cr（Ⅵ）含量在ZK1与R1样品中均高于地下水质量标准Ⅲ类,是填埋场周边地下水的主要风险污染物;ZK1~ZK4中土壤重金属元素以Pb、Cr（Ⅵ）富集为主,其达中度污染程度,应引起重视。