基于主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法的神经网络年最大洪峰流量预测模型探讨

针时水文预测建模中输入因子过多而导致神经网络结构规模过大,泛化能力差的问题,利用主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法对神经网络进行改进,优化网络结构,从而提高泛化能力。以洮儿河流域镇西站年最大洪峰流量预测为例,研究结果表明,改进的神经网络预测方法与传统的神经网络方法相比,泛化能力有显著提高,而且网络的收敛也比较稳定,实际预测中效果良好。     

阿克苏东部冰雹天气发生规律与降雹日分布特征

依据1985～2004年阿克苏东部(库车县、沙雅县、新和县)20a间的冰雹天气资料,统计分析冰雹天气发生规律(生成源地、移动路径),并探讨了雹云成因及雹日分布特征。     

A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

CHANNEL SHRINKAGE AND ITS INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER YELLOW RIVER1

From the mid 1980s through the late 1990s, the channel of the lower Yellow River experienced serious shrinkage, which has decreased the flood conveyance of the channel and the sediment carrying capacity of the flow, raised the water levels of floods, and, thus, severely threatened the safety of flood control along the river. The completion of Xiaolangdi Dam in 1999 could help mitigate the channel shrinkage problem, but the situation has not changed yet. This paper analyses the characteristics, mechanisms, and conditions resulting in channel shrinkage, points out channel instabilities, and puts forward approaches of channel rehabilitation.     

双阳盆地聚煤作用及煤层分布特点

双阳盆地为一内陆山间盆地。通过对盆地主要含煤地层充填序列山麓相—河床、漫滩相—浅湖相—沼泽相—泥炭沼泽相—深湖相的分析,将盆地边缘向盆地中心分为无煤带—分叉变薄带—合并变厚带—分叉变薄带。预测在盆地东北侧沿走向应有工业价值的煤层存在。     

淮河流域(河南段)第四纪地层沉积规律

本文详细介绍了第四纪地层划分原则,确定了第四纪下限与各世内分的时间,对河南段各个时期地势、各统的沉积规律进行了阐述,确定了含水层主流相与边缘相.     

2003年黄河第二次调水调沙试验效果分析

2003年8～10月,泾、渭、洛河和三门峡～花园口区间降雨持续50余d,黄河中游出现了历史上罕见的秋汛洪水。为扩大黄河下游河道主河槽的过洪能力,实现黄河下游主河槽的全线冲刷,同时,进一步探索三门峡、小浪底等水库水沙联合调度方式,深化对黄河河道、水库水沙运动规律的认识,黄委会于9月6日～18日进行了黄河第二次调水调沙。该文着重介绍了此次实验中黄河下游主要断面的水文泥沙过程,以及河道冲淤情况,认为花园口水文站来水量26．5亿m~3,冲刷量0．456亿t,整个下游河段基本为冲刷；下游主要断面主槽过洪能力增加幅度为150～400m~3/s,2500m~3/s流量相应水位降低0．04～0．23m,提高下游河道的输沙效率。     

和田河流域棉蚜大发生原医及防治与气象服务

从和田河流域棉蚜越冬基数、气候条件、作物布局及发育期、防治措施、品种特点等方面，分析了和田河流域棉蚜大发生的原因，结果表明气候条件与棉蚜大发生关系十分密切，作物布局及发育期和防治措施也是棉蚜泛滥成灾的主要因素，提出了棉蚜防治的各项技术措施与气象服务。     

黄河下游引黄灌区水价与水资源调控*

40多年来,我国水利建设取得了巨大成就,但是,在以往的计划经济条件下,水利事业普遍存在着“重建轻管”的问题,延续至今,尚未妥善解决,从而导致一些地区水资源的极度浪费及出现不良的环境后效。水资源管理是水资源合理开发利用的基本保证,它涉及到政策、法律、体制、经济及现代科学技术,是一个跨部门、跨学科的系统工程。目前,我国在水资源管理中最突出的问题是尚未完全纳入市场经济的轨道,水价远低于供水成本,不能发挥水费征收的经济杠杆作用,遏制水资源的浪费及合理地调控地表水与地下水资源,同时,偏低的水价也使供水部门缺乏足够的资金进行工程运营与维修,造成工程老化,降低供水效率^[1].黄河下游灌区,位于豫鲁两省境内,灌溉面积约2800万亩(186.6×10⁴hm²),多年平均引水量在100×10⁸m³左右,该灌区自50年代末引黄灌溉以来,上述问题表现尤为突出。随着黄河上、中游地区的发展,用水量增加,使黄河下游灌区的用水矛盾越来越突出。此文试图以此为典型,分析供水成本的构成、现行水价确定中存在的问题及其对水资源调控的影响,供水价问题的深入研究及水价政策的制定参考。     

土地用途分区管制在县级土地利用总体规划中的应用分析

土地利用总体规划是中国县级土地管理的主要依据.当前,县级土地利用总体规划中的年度用地指标制度指令性过强、缺乏弹性,与县域经济发展不相适应,降低了规划的指导作用和法律地位.土地用途分区管制制度不做年度用地计划,在用途分区的基础上进行用地数量和质量的控制,能够很好的解决县级土地利用总体规划实施中出现的问题.今后应建立以土地用途分区管制为核心的县级土地利用总体规划.土地用途分区管制的切实实施需要相关法律体系和操作技术的完善.