Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

基于GIS的三维水文地质建模及应用——以咸阳市为例

为了提升城市地质调查工作的总体服务水平,通过搭建城市地质综合GIS平台,采用人机交互式单元分割-拼接建模方法,以水文地质剖面为基础数据,加入水文地质钻孔、水文地质图、地表高程等多源数据作为约束,首次在咸阳地区构建了建模深度300 m、建模面积3714 km2的水文地质三维结构模型.本次建模的工作顺利完成为研究咸阳地区地下水文地质结构、地下水资源赋存特征提供了三维可视化的数据支撑,也为其他城市开展类似建模工作提供借鉴.     

Comparison of 1D linear,equivalent-linear,and nonlinear site response models at six KiK-net validation sites

Vertical seismometer arrays represent a unique interaction between observed and predicted ground motions, and they are especially helpful for validating and comparing site response models. In this study, we perform comprehensive linear, equivalent-linear, and nonlinear site response analyses of 191 ground motions recorded at six validation sites in the Kiban–Kyoshin network (KiK-net) of vertical seismometer arrays in Japan. These sites, which span a range of geologic conditions, are selected because they meet the basic assumptions of one-dimensional (1D) wave propagation, and are therefore ideal for validating and calibrating 1D nonlinear soil models. We employ the equivalent-linear site response program SHAKE, the nonlinear site response program DEEPSOIL, and a nonlinear site response overlay model within the general finite element program Abaqus/Explicit. Using the results from this broad range of ground motions, we quantify the uncertainties of the alternative site response models, measure the strain levels at which the models break down, and provide general recommendations for performing site response analyses. Specifically, we find that at peak shear strains from 0.01% to 0.1%, linear site response models fail to accurately predict short-period ground motions; equivalent-linear and nonlinear models offer a significant improvement at strains beyond this level, with nonlinear models exhibiting a slight improvement over equivalent-linear models at strains greater than approximately 0.05%.     

Insights into ground response during underground coal gasification through thermo-mechanical modeling

This paper presents a coupled thermo-mechanical model to investigate the ground response during underground coal gasification (UCG). The model incorporated the temporal and spatial development of temperature, the gradual growth of the cavity, and temperature-dependent material properties. Model verification was made against two benchmarks to acquire the confidence for the predictive purpose. The first exercise demonstrated the correctness of the model implemented in COMPASS. The second exercise showed that using the ash-filled cavity to represent null or empty zones is a good option in the numerical modeling and provided highly comparable results to other models. Based on the Hanna UCG trial, different cases were simulated to investigate the effects of the cavity size in the coal seam and the thermal expansion coefficient of the caprock and base rock on key features that take place during the process of UCG. A maximum temperature in the range of 1200–1500 ℃ was induced by the gasification of coal, and a cavity with a maximum length of 13.5 m was formed after 30 days of simulation. Meanwhile, small vertical displacement in the range of -5–12 mm took place near the cavity because of the thermal expansion of the geologic materials and the reduction of the overall weight with the creation of the cavity. In addition, it was found the thermal expansion coefficients can influence the thermo-mechanical response of geologic materials, but the effects were insignificant when its order of magnitude was smaller than 10^-6 K^-1.     

Constraining the stepwise migration of the eastern Tibetan Plateau margin by apatite fission track thermochronology

Granites sampled from Garzê-Litang thrust, Longmen Shan thrust, Garzê and Litang strike-slip faults in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have been analyzed with apatite fission track thermochronological method in this study. The measured fission track apparent ages, combined with the simulated annealing mod- eling of the thermal history, have been used to reconstruct the thermal evolutionary histories of the samples and interpret the active history of the thrusts and faults in these areas. Thermal history mod- eling shows that earlier tectonic cooling occurred in the Garzê-Litang thrust in Miocene (~20―16 Ma) whereas the later cooling occurred mainly in the Longmen Shan thrust since ~5 Ma. Our study sug- gests that the margin of eastern Tibetan Plateau was extended by stages: through strike-slip faults deformations and related thrusts, the upper crust formed the Garzê-Litang margin in the Miocene epoch and then moved to the Longmen Shan margin since ~5 Ma. During this process, the deformations of different phases in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were absorbed by the thrusts within them and conse- quently the tectonic events of long-distance slip and extrusion up to hundreds of kilometers have not been found.     

Seasonally frozen soil effects on the dynamic behavior of highway bridges

Frozen ground is significantly stiffer than unfrozen ground. For bridges supported on deep foundations, bridge stiffness is also measurably higher in winter months. Significant changes due to seasonal freezing in bridge pier boundary conditions require additional detailing in order to ensure a ductile performance of the bridge during a design earthquake event. This paper reports the latest results obtained from a project that systematically investigated the effects of seasonally frozen soil on the seismic behavior of highway bridges in cold regions. A bridge was chosen and was monitored to study its seismic performance and assess the impact of seasonally frozen soil on its dynamic properties. A Finite Element (FE) model was created for this bridge to analyze the impact of seasonal frost. It was found that when frost depth reaches 1.2 m, the first transverse modal frequency increases about 200% when compared with the no-frost case. The results show that seasonal frost has a significant impact on the overall dynamic behavior of bridges supported by pile foundations in cold regions, and that these effects should be accounted for in seismic design.     

VALIDATION OF NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED BY A HYBRID WRF/CALMET MODELING SYSTEM OVER A COASTAL ISLAND WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN

The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.     

A bivariate pareto model for drought

Univariate Pareto distributions have been so widely used in hydrology. It seems however that bivariate or multivariate Pareto distributions have not yet found applications in hydrology, especially with respect to drought. In this note, a drought application is described by assuming a bivariate Pareto model for the joint distribution drought durations and drought severity in the State of Nebraska. Based on this model, exact distributions are derived for the inter arrival time, magnitude and the proportion of droughts. Estimates of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods are derived for the three variables, drought duration, drought severity and the pairwise combinations: (drought duration, drought severity), (inter arrival time of drought, proportion of drought) and (drought duration, drought magnitude). These return period estimates could have an important role in hydrology, for example, with respect to measures of vegetation water stress for plants in water-controlled ecosystems.     

伊通盆地莫里青断陷地层压力演化与油气运聚

以伊通盆地莫里青断陷现今压力场特征及单井超压演化历史的研究为基础,应用2D盆地模拟方法,对伊通盆地莫里青断陷地层压力演化进行了模拟恢复,并探讨了压力演化与构造运动及油气运聚的关系。研究结果表明：莫里青断陷地层压力演化明显经历了始新世早-中期(57.8～39 Ma)、中始新世-晚渐新世(39～23.7 Ma)、晚渐新世-现今(23.7～0 Ma)3个“增压-泄压”旋回,现今地层压力基本为常压,仅靠山凹陷底部发育弱超压;压力演化的旋回性主要受控于构造运动的旋回性;地层压力演化对油气运聚具有重要的影响作用,超压释放期油气运聚活跃,断裂是超压释放与油气运移的主要通道,与断裂输导体系有关的区带为有利的油气勘探对象。     

浅层气藏流体相控属性参数建模及应用

对钻井资料较少的莺歌海盆地某气田采用流体相控属性建模,利用叠前纵横波速度比反演预测储层含气性和储层测井综合解释成果,用随机模拟方法建立储层的流体相模型;用流体相模型进行间接相控,建立了用波阻抗约束的随机模拟孔隙度模型,解决了浅层气藏由于受含气效应影响导致模拟的气层孔隙度偏高而难以正确反映储层物性分布的问题。在此基础上求得连通因子平面分布,勾出孔隙度分隔带,解释了研究区压力和气体类型分区特征。