基于R/S分析的建筑物变形趋势研究

通过对某建筑物的长期监测位移时序的增量位移时序的Hurst指数计算,分析了建筑物的变形趋势,根据建筑物的变形在时间和空间上的差异性,本文提出了基于Hurst指数判断建筑物加速变形阶段的概念模型,表明R/S分析法是描述和刻画非线性时间序列的有效方法,能够定量刻画建筑物的变形趋势,可以有效指导实际监测工作。     

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 2. Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 2. Dépendance temporelle des processus hydrologiques et échelle temporelle

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.     

气候模式应用中的不确定性分析

为了分析和评价气候变化对水文水资源的影响,根据中国东部地区1956～2000年实测年降水量系列数据,采用多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和反映系列可持续特性的Hurst系数等3项指标,对CGCMA3、MPI-ECHAM5和平均GCM等3种气候模式模拟的同期年降水系列数据进行了检验。检验结果表明,3种气候模式模拟结果与实测值之间,以及不同模式模拟结果之间,不仅定量方面差异很大,而且在定性方面甚至出现相悖的结果,不确定性十分显著。同样,根据3种气候模式预测的未来2001～2050年年降水量和季平均气温推得的未来年径流量系列数据,其多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和干旱年年径流量多项指标也存在明显的不确定性。据此对气候模式及其应用提出了相应的建议。     

Stochastic computational modelling of highly heterogeneous poroelastic media with long‐range correlations

The compaction of highly heterogeneous poroelastic reservoirs with the geology characterized by long‐range correlations displaying fractal character is investigated within the framework of the stochastic computational modelling. The influence of reservoir heterogeneity upon the magnitude of the stresses induced in the porous matrix during fluid withdrawal and rock consolidation is analysed by performing ensemble averages over realizations of a log‐normally distributed stationary random hydraulic conductivity field. Considering the statistical distribution of this parameter characterized by a coefficient of variation governing the magnitude of heterogeneity and a correlation function which decays with a power‐law scaling behaviour we show that the combination of these two effects result in an increase in the magnitude of effective stresses of the rock during reservoir depletion. Further, within the framework of a perturbation analysis we show that the randomness in the hydraulic conductivity gives rise to non‐linear corrections in the upscaled poroelastic equations. These corrections are illustrated by a self‐consistent recursive hierarchy of solutions of the stochastic poroelastic equations parametrized by a scale parameter representing the fluctuating log‐conductivity standard deviation. A classical example of land subsidence caused by fluid extraction of a weak reservoir is numerically simulated by performing Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with finite elements discretizations of the poroelastic equations associated with an ensemble of geologies. Numerical results illustrate the effects of the spatial variability and fractal character of the permeability distribution upon the evolution of the Mohr–Coulomb function of the rock. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向海洋信息管理的轻量级CA 的设计与实现

面向海洋信息管理的需求,基于J2EE平台,使用Bouncy Castle提供的加密算法与工具,遵从PKI(Public Key Infrastructure,公钥基础设施)相关标准,实现了一个适用于中小型海洋信息管理系统的轻量级数字证书认证机构(CA,Certificate Authority)。该CA提供了适用于中小型海洋信息管理系统的数据存储与传输加密功能,为通过网络实现高效的海洋科研数据收集与共享管理提供了技术上的安全保障。     

基于Hurst指数的矿化强度识别－以山东大尹格庄金矿为例

探索成矿元素分布的分形特征是揭示矿化富集程度的重要途径之一。运用重标极差分析（R/S）方法,研究了山东大尹格庄金矿-210 m中段多勘探线Au品位序列随采样尺度变化的趋势,探讨元素序列的Hurst指数与矿化强度的关系。结果显示:具有不同矿化强度的勘探线Au的Hurst指数存在明显差异,且均大于0.5;矿化连续分布或间断出现的勘探线元素品位序列的Hurst指数大于0.65,表明元素序列具有标度不变性和长相关性,序列的持续强度与矿化程度基本一致,可为区域矿化强度定量识别提供一种新的有效方法。     

1981—2010年西藏怒江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化

利用1981—2010年怒江流域9个站月平均最高气温、最低气温、降水量、风速、相对湿度、日照时数等资料,应用Penman-Monteith模型,采用气候倾向率、R/S等方法分析了潜在蒸发量变化的趋势性和持续性,并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的气象因子。结果表明：近30年怒江流域四季潜在蒸发量趋于减少,年潜在蒸发量以18.4 mm?(10a)-1的速率显著减少。夏、秋、冬季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性,未来将持续减少,尤其是冬季。在年代际尺度上,四季潜在蒸发量1980年代为正距平,1990和2000年代均为负距平。风速减小是四季潜在蒸发量减少的主要因素,不过春季潜在蒸发量的减少与降水量的显著增加也有关,且夏季气温日较差的显著变小对潜在蒸发量减少的作用不可忽视。     

北部湾海岸带植被覆盖时空动态特征及未来趋势

分析北部湾海岸带植被覆盖动态变化趋势,能为开展海岸带植被生态环境监测提供决策。以2000―2011年SPOT-VEGETATION逐旬NDVI数据为基础,采用MVC（最大值合成法）、标准差、线性趋势分析（SLOPE）和Hurst指数等数理统计方法对研究区植被覆盖时空变化特征及未来趋势进行定量分析。结果表明：1）研究区植被覆盖整体上处于变好的状态,在年尺度上呈现出“波动―明显改善”的趋势,且海岸带东岸与西岸的植被变化趋势快于丘陵地区;在季节尺度上NDVI的增长速率为：秋季＞夏季＞春季＞冬季;在月尺度上NDVI在6―11月植被生长迅速,而在1―4月则生长缓慢;2）NDVI均值的空间分布规律自东北―西南中心线呈现出“两头高、中心地带低”的趋势,且NDVI均值自西向东的变化规律为-0.026/1N°,具有经向地带性特点;3）NDVI的Hurst指数值为0.306 5~0.995 3,平均值为0.777 4,反持续性序列（15.78%）＜持续性序列（84.22%）,未来总体植被覆盖呈现出持续性改善趋势。未来需要重点进行保护的植被区域主要集中在十万大山的西南部、钦江流域的上游以及合浦县的西南部。     

Stream response to precipitation variability: a spectral view based on analysis and modelling of hydrological cycle components

Hydrological processes commonly exhibit long‐term persistence, also known as the ‘Hurst phenomenon’. Here, we examine long‐term precipitation and streamflow time series from the Elbe River Basin to quantify differences in the spectral properties and in the Hurst parameter estimates () of the individual hydrological cycle components. Precipitation‐runoff modelling is performed for the Elbe River sub‐catchment Striegis using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For 38 daily 50 years long streamflow time series from the Elbe River Basin, baseflow separation and spectral analysis is performed. The results show a spectral shift towards low‐frequency scales (>2 years) from precipitation to baseflow, with a parallel increase of from 0.52 (precipitation) to 0.65 (baseflow). The SWAT model is able to reproduce both, the main low‐frequency mode (≈7 yr.) and the (0.62) of the observed Striegis River flow time series. The baseflow appears to be the main component which shapes the low‐frequency response and of streamflow in the Elbe River Basin to the input precipitation. This conclusion is further confirmed through PMWIN‐MODFLOW groundwater modelling of a hypothetic phreatic stream‐connected aquifer system that consists of various soils (sand, loamy sand and silt). A power shift towards lower frequencies and an increase of for the hydraulic heads is obtained, as the aquifer's lateral dimensions increase and its hydraulic conductivity decreases. The average of the groundwater heads is 0.80, 0.90 and 1.0 for sand, loamy sand and silt aquifers, respectively. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用R/S方法分析兰州城市化气候效应

运用R／S方法，对1951－1997年兰州市城市气候的温度、水汽压、相对湿度和日照百分率等指标的冬（1月）、夏（7月）及年平均值进行了分析计算，各项指标的Hurst指数H均大于0．5，说明它们存在明显的Hurst现象，反映出兰州市过去47年来气候变化存在趋势性成分，即持续性的城市化增暖，至于各项指标的Hurst指数在冬、夏及年平均值间有差异，分析证明这是兰州城市化气候效应强度季节不同所造成。