The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

泥石流阵流序列的整体性

泥石流往往以阵流群的形式出现,不同阵流参数具有统一的统计分布,意味着阵流序列隐含着深层的系统信息。文中根据蒋家沟泥石流观测数据,揭示阵流序列的自相关性和时空变化特征,进而确立其整体性。Hurst指数是刻画序列相关性的指标。阵流的流量、速度和时间间歇序列的Hurst指数值均大于05,从而证明序列具有长程相关性;另一方面,将阵流作为其运动参数(如流速、流量、间歇时间)组所确定的点,则一个泥石流事件为参数空间的一个点集,且集中在一个狭小区域,直观表现了阵流在时空的聚集特征,这是序列整体性的又一特征。阵流序列的这些基本特征,意味着不同泥石流事件背后隐藏着同一个动力学机制,即泥石流作为流域行为(而不是流体运动)的系统动力学。     

Influence of land use on the persistence effect of riverine phosphorus

The persistence effect contribution of legacy nutrients is often cited as a reason for little or no improvement in water quality following extensive implementation of watershed nutrient mitigation actions, yet there is limited knowledge concerning factors influencing this response, often called the “persistence effect.” Here, we adopted detrended fluctuation analysis and Spearman analysis methods to assess the influence of land use on the watershed phosphorus (P) persistence effect, using monthly water quality records during 2010–2016 in 13 catchments within a drinking water reservoir watershed in eastern China. Detrended fluctuation analysis was used to calculate the Hurst exponent α to assess watershed legacy P characteristics (α  ≈ 0.5, α  > 0.5, and α  < 0.5 indicate white noise, persistence, and anti‐persistence, respectively). Results showed weak to strong P persistence (0.60–0.81) in the time series of riverine P in the 13 catchments. The Hurst exponent α had negative relationships with agricultural land (R = ?.47, p = .11) and developed land (R = ?.67, p = .01) and a positive relationship with forest land cover (R = .48, p = .10). The persistence effect of riverine P was mainly determined by retention ability (biogeochemical legacy) and migration efficiency (hydrological legacy). A catchment with strong retention capacity (e.g., biomass uptake/storage and soil PO₄ sorption) and low migration efficiency results in a stronger persistence effect for riverine P. In practice, source control is more effective in catchments with weak persistence, whereas sink control (e.g., riparian buffers and wetlands) is preferred in catchments with strong persistence effects.     

1950s以来鄱阳湖流域降水变化趋势及其持续性特征

以鄱阳湖流域1950s至2005年10个台站的日降水量为基础,采用距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验对鄱阳湖流域1950s以来的年、季降水特征和变化趋势进行分析,并以此为基础,结合Hurat指数,从3年、5年、10年三个时间尺度上分析该流域未来降水的变化趋势.结果表明,鄱阳湖流域年内降水分配不均,年际变化较为...     

基于MOD13Q1数据的宁夏生长季植被动态监测

宁夏自2000年后实施退耕还林以来,局部地区的生态环境得到明显改善,为探求近15来年宁夏地区植被的动态变化及其影响因子,本文以MOD13Q1为数据源,结合DEM数据、土地利用分类图,采用Sen+Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法和Hurst模型,分析了宁夏不同行政区、不同海拔、不同坡度、不同坡向及不同植被类型生长季NDVI的空间变化特征及未来变化趋势;并利用重心迁移模型和转移矩阵分析宁夏2000-2014年间植被覆盖的时空演变特征。结果表明：①从空间分布看,宁夏南部六盘山、北部贺兰山及引黄灌溉区植被长势较好,中部干旱地区植被长势较差;且植被NDVI与海拔高程和坡度呈显著正相关。②从植被覆盖的转移矩阵看,较高植被覆盖的面积占比从2000年的17.29%增长到2014年的31.55%,主要是由较低植被覆盖转化而来的。③从重心迁移方向看,中度植被覆盖和较高植被覆盖的重心迁移最为明显,分别向东北方向偏移了129.49 km和向东南方向偏移了89.49 km。④从变化趋势看,生长季植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,明显改善的面积占总面积的59.63%,轻微改善区域占31.72%;林地和水田显著改善的面积分别占总面积的71.50%和70.80%;显著改善的面积比例随海拔高程和坡度的增加均先增加后减少,且南部各行政区植被改善的面积均高于北部。⑤从可持续性看,植被恢复的持续性较强,89.24%的植被NDVI呈现持续改善的趋势;南部地区的持续改善的面积大于北部地区。     

基于粗糙度的月表虹湾地区地形地貌解译

行星表面粗糙度是表面侵蚀、沉降和隆升等作用在行星表面留下的记录,对其进行的定量分析可以精确地反映其表面地质构造过程.对月球的虹湾地区选取水平方向的12条剖面进行了粗糙度各参数(均方根高程、均方根偏差、均方根坡度、Hurst指数)的计算,结果表明:①在1 km的剖面长度上,虹湾地区均方根高程的平均值在3 m左右;在0.2...     

Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers

Reconstructed sunspot data are available that extend solar activity back to 11 360 years before the present. We have examined these data using Hurst analysis, a moving average filter, and Fourier analysis. All of the procedures indicate the presence of a long term (≈6 000 year) cycle not previously reported. A number of shorter cycles formerly identified in the literature by using Fourier analysis, Bayes methods, and maximum entropy methods were also detected in the reconstructed sunspot data.     

基于ASP.NET+Castle框架的旅游管理系统的设计

介绍了.NET平台和Castle框架技术的慨念.描述了如何运用ASP.NET Castle建立数据持久化层框架,并以旅游管理系统中的应用为例,讨论了这种框架的具体应用方法.     

Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

Are human able to foresee the future? For thou-sands of years close attention has been paid to this issue. At the present day, in order to survive from competition and to predominate over the nature, hu-man抯 desire of forecasting things has become more and more intense. Compared to conquering space, more people yearn for being able to control the time. From ancient to the present, mankind always dream of contacting the past, governing the present and tran-scending the future. Recent years in…     

R/S分析及其在地震磁效应研究中的应用

将重标极差法（R／S，Rescaled range analysis）这一时间序列分析方法引入到地震地磁前兆观测资料的处理和分析当中，并应用该方法对陕西关中地区3个地磁台站在1996～1998年间Z分量观测数据进行处理。分析了地磁Z分量赫斯特指数变化与1998年1月5日泾阳肘。4．8地震的关系，发现地震前2～4个月地磁Z分量出现明显小于0．5的异常变化，背离了地磁场正常的长程相关趋势性增强的变化规律，预示了此次地震的发生。这些结果表明该方法能够挖掘出丰富的地磁前兆信息，在地震前兆观测资料的非线性处理中具有良好的应用前景。