The Marmara Sea region: Seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey)

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for about 1500 km from Karliova to the east, to the Egean Sea in the west. The Marmara region, located near the western end of the NAF, is a tectonically active zone characterized by the transition between a strike slip stress regime and an extensional one in the Aegean Sea. Microseismic studies performed around the Marmara Sea in 1995 [Tectonophysics 316, 2000, 1], and just before the 1999 Izmit Earthquake Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361;J. Seismol. 6, 2002b, 287) permitted the analysis of the evolution of seismicity connected to this destructive earthquake and its sequels. Several observations indicate that the aftershock distribution fits well the EW orientation of the NAF, but the ruptures are not simple and linear as a first glance would suggest. Instead they are segmented in at least five pieces as shown by the slip variation and aftershock clusters, showing complexity at different scales (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361). There is still a gap, across the northern border of the Marmara Sea that has not ruptured, and this is the only sector that did not break on the NAF since the 1939 great Erzincan earthquake. Will it rupture as a whole with a large magnitude earthquake, or by segments with smaller magnitude events? The Hurst analysis of the overall behaviour of the seismicity in the Marmara region since historical times shows that if a large earthquake occurs in the near future, it might break the complete gap. The Hurst character of the time variation of seismicity is persistent with H= 0.82. The aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake can be analyzed by using the Hurst method, showing an exceptionally high persistent memory.     

Extremely slow slope movements influencing the stability of Spis Castle,UNESCO site

Spis Castle, a monument included in the UNESCO World Heritage Site list (Eastern Slovakia) is built on a travertine mound overlying soft Paleogene rocks. Lateral spreading resulting from the subsidence of strong upper travertine into soft claystone strata has fractured and separated the castle rock into several cliffs. The differential movement of individual cliff faces is the primary influence on the stability of the monument. In order to monitor and quantify the movement, two techniques were adopted: a mechanical-optical TM-71 crack gauge and a demec gauge (demountable mechanical—SOMET type crack gauge). This paper presents the results and interpretation of medium and short-term monitoring at the site.     

Integrated evaluation of urban groundwater hydrogeochemistry in context of fractal behaviour of groundwater level fluctuations

The present study was carried out as part of a complex survey of urban groundwater quality and quantity in Szeged, southeast Hungary. The concentrations of 12 inorganic contaminants in 28 shallow groundwater monitoring wells were determined over a 2-year period (2010–2012). The evaluation of concentrations indicates remarkable contamination all over the city. Discriminant analysis (DA) was used to evaluate the spatial changes of groundwater quality. The groundwater levels were measured over a 14-year period (2000–2013). The fractal properties of water level fluctuations time series characterizing the groundwater system and Tisza River were investigated using rescaled range (R/S) analysis. The resulting Hurst exponents clearly showed the persistency and thus long memory effects of both the groundwater and the river flow. Comparison of the results of DA with the results of R/S analysis thus implies that the geological conditions and the changing groundwater quantities are not related to groundwater quality.

EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Fiori     

Estimation of the 3D correlation structure of an alluvial aquifer from surface-based multi-frequency ground-penetrating radar reflection data

Knowledge about the stochastic nature of heterogeneity in subsurface hydraulic properties is critical for aquifer characterization and the corresponding prediction of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Whereas the vertical correlation structure of the heterogeneity is often well constrained by borehole information, the lateral correlation structure is generally unknown because the spacing between boreholes is too large to allow for its meaningful inference. There is, however, evidence to suggest that information on the lateral correlation structure may be extracted from the correlation statistics of the subsurface reflectivity structure imaged by surface-based ground-penetrating radar measurements. To date, case studies involving this approach have been limited to 2D profiles acquired at a single antenna centre frequency in areas with limited complementary information. As a result, the practical reliability of this methodology has been difficult to assess. Here, we extend previous work to 3D and consider reflection ground-penetrating radar data acquired using two antenna centre frequencies at the extensively explored and well-constrained Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. We find that the results obtained using the two ground-penetrating radar frequencies are consistent with each other, as well as with information from a number of other studies at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. In addition, contrary to previous 2D work, our results indicate that the surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar data are not only sensitive to the aspect ratio of the underlying heterogeneity, but also, albeit to a lesser extent, to the so-called Hurst number, which is a key parameter characterizing the local variability of the fine-scale structure.     

半参数模型在GPS季节性信号分离中的应用

根据噪声序列的Hurst指数特性,提出一种新的确定半参数模型平滑因子的方法--基于Hurst指数的二分搜索法,并将该方法应用于分离时变GPS季节性信号。通过对模拟数据及实测GPS坐标序列的分析,验证了该方法是一种有效的确定平滑因子的方法。将计算得到的平滑因子代入半参数模型,能够将GPS坐标序列中的季节性信号充分地分离出来。     

1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

以长江流域123个气象站1960-2011年逐日气象数据为基础, 应用Penman-Monteith模型, 在ArcGIS环境下通过IDW插值法、 TFPW-MK、 R/S等方法分析了全流域潜在蒸发量变化的时空变化、 趋势性和持续性, 并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的主要气象因素.结果表明: 年潜在蒸发量自1960年以来至2002年呈波动减少趋势, 2003-2009年呈显著增加趋势, 整体为增加趋势; 其中, 上游高原区、 上游盆地区、 下游区年潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势, 中游区呈下降趋势, 增幅最大的是上游盆地区.四季中, 春、 夏、 秋季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性, 未来将持续增加.最低气温、 最高气温是影响长江流域潜在蒸发量增加的主要因子.     

Multifractal characteristic analysis of near-fault earthquake ground motions

This study aims to reveal the multi-scaling behavior and quantify the irregularity of near-fault earthquake ground motions from a new perspective of multifractal theory. Based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, the multifractal characteristic parameters of acceleration time series for typical near-fault ground motions are calculated, and their correlations with two period parameters (i.e., mean period T_m and characteristic period T_c) and box-counting fractal dimensions are analyzed. Numerical results of strong nonlinear dependence of generalized Hurst exponents h(q) upon the fluctuation orders q indicate that near-fault ground motions present the multifractal properties and long-range correlation obviously. Furthermore, the scaling exponent h(2) of near-fault records has a strong correlation with their periods T_m and T_c, and strongly negative correlation with their box dimension. Moreover, h(2) can be regarded as a measure of frequency content and irregularity degree of strong earthquake ground motions. Finally, it is pointed out that the long-range correlation of small and large fluctuation is the major source of multifractality of near-fault ground motions.     

损伤和剪胀效应对裂隙煤体渗透率演化规律的影响研究

煤层瓦斯渗透率是影响瓦斯抽采和动力灾害防治的重要参数。为了研究煤体损伤和剪胀变形对渗透率的影响,首先引入损伤变量反映煤体损伤破坏状态,建立了基于体应变增量的煤体损伤本构模型。并采用Hurst指数表征裂隙表面粗糙度,基于裂隙表面的分形特征,建立了裂隙渗透率在压缩和剪切作用下的演化模型。通过对TOUGH2和FLAC3D软件进行二次开发,建立了基于双重孔隙模型的TOUGH2(CH4)-FLAC气-固耦合数值分析工具。采用本软件对煤样单轴压缩过程进行模拟分析,结果表明：煤体的破坏是损伤单元累积和贯通的结果,最终形成贯通煤体的损伤带是造成煤体失稳破坏的主因;围岩内的渗透率增加区域与损伤区位置基本一致,其中裂隙系统的渗透率增加幅度最大可达2个数量级;剪切破坏区的裂隙发生剪胀变形,引起裂隙渗透率大幅增加。建立的理论模型与数值计算工具为制定瓦斯治理措施提供了理论指导。     

2000-2014年中国重特大煤矿事故时空分布分形特征

本文汇总整理了2000-2014年中国发生的472起重特大煤矿事故,获得其空间分布状况;基于分形理论,利用网格法统计不同网格尺度下覆盖重特大煤矿事故的非空网格中的事故数量,计算煤矿事故的全国、三大自然地理区以及干湿分区的分维值,分析其空间分布分形特征;利用R/S方法研究15年来重特大煤矿事故发生的时间分形特征。研究表明,从全国范围来看,重特大煤矿事故具有较好的空间分形特性,但不同区域的重特大煤矿事故的分形特性却具有很大差别。15年来发生重特大事故数量及事故死亡人数逐年下降,由R/S分析得到的Hurst指数表明事故时间序列的分形特征客观存在,并且年发生事故数量及事故死亡人数量减少趋势。     

Exploring self-affine properties in seismograms

Self-affine properties have been observed in a large variety of rough profiles and time series from natural data sets. In this work, seismograms used for oil prospecting, which contain information of distinct subsurface features collected by seismic waves reflected or scattered at their interfaces, are taken into consideration. It is expected that any self-affine property, measured by the Hurst exponent H, depends on the depth. For each seismic trace, H is evaluated locally within a moving window, which is chosen narrow enough to reveal space dependency but also wide enough to display scale invariance. With the use of color code diagrams, it is possible to draw two-dimensional diagrams that show the local dependence of H for the analyzed seismogram. The reliability of the method is tested by the investigation of seismograms that contain ground roll components, as well as multiple reflections. The effect of different kinds of filter in the scaling properties is also investigated. In this case, comparisons are drawn among the diagrams obtained from original seismograms and those subjected to appropriate filter to eliminate spurious components. Work supported by the Brazilian agencies CNPq, FINEP-CTPETRO and Petrobras.