新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏原因分析与研究

通过飓风卡特里娜对新奥尔良防洪工程体系破坏情况的回顾并分析其破坏原因,结合其它海堤的建设情况,总结防洪工程体系建设经验教训。认为防洪工程建设应有系统工程的观念,并基于风险分析进行设计;筑堤土料尽量采用抗冲能力强的粘土或采用抗冲性能差的土料时应有相应的防护措施;注意堤防的防护设计,特别是生物措施的利用;强调应重视工程地质参数的正确选取。     

Hurricane-induced landslide activity on an alluvial fan along Meadow Run, Shenandoah Valley, Virginia (eastern USA)

Although intense rainfall and localized flooding occurred as Hurricane Isabel tracked inland northwestardly across the Blue Ridge Mountains of central Virginia on September 18–19, 2003, few landslides occurred. However, the hurricane reactivated a dormant landslide along a bluff of an incised alluvial fan along Meadow Run on the western flanks of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Subsequent monitoring showed retrogressive movement involving several landslide blocks for the next several months. Using dendrochronology, aerial photography, and stream discharge records revealed periods of landslide activity. The annual variation of growth rings on trees within the landslide suggested previous slope instability in 1937, 1972, 1993, 1997, and 1999, which correlated with periods of local flood events. The avulsive and migrating nature of Meadow Run, combined with strong erosional force potential during flood stages, indicates that landslides are common along the bluff-channel bank interface, locally posing landslide hazards to relatively few structures within this farming region.     

“拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害

“拉马德雷”是一种高空气压流，亦称太平洋十年涛动，分别以“暖位相”和“冷位相”两种形式交替在太平洋上空出现，每种现象持续20年至30年。近100多年来“拉马德雷”已出现了两个完整的周期（见表1）。当“拉马德雷”现象以“暖位相”形式出现时，北美大陆附近海面的水温就会异常升高，而北太平洋洋面温度却异常下降。与此同时太平洋高空气流由美洲和亚洲两大陆向太平洋中央移动；低空气流正好相反，使中太平洋海面升高。当“拉马德雷”以“冷位相”形式出现时，情况正好相反。中太平洋海面反复升降导致地壳跷跷板运动，引发强烈的地震活动。     

Retrospective analysis of the impacts of major hurricanes on sediments in the lower Everglades and Florida Bay

A record of the impacts of major hurricanes on sediment stratigraphy and composition in subtropical ecosystems has been preserved in the lower Everglades and Florida Bay. These impacts were observed in discontinuous layers of sediment that were identified from high-resolution, vertical profiles of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. Discontinuities were found at different geographic locations and at two to three different depths in the sediment column; however, the layers were each deposited within time periods that corresponded with the passing of category 3–5 hurricanes during 1960, 1948 and 1935. A simple mass balance model for excess ²¹⁰Pb was used to show net changes of ±20–100% in excess ²¹⁰Pb inventory that resulted from sediment disturbances of <1 to >22 cm. Abrupt shifts in sediment composition were often observed in hurricane-impacted layers. Ratios of organic (C/P) were four- to fivefold higher than normal in post-hurricane layers of sediment at open bay sites. These layers are phosphorus poor and seem to reflect preferential decomposition of organic P relative to organic C in association with hurricanes. The net effect is for major hurricanes to redistribute sediment, organic matter and nutrients.This revised version was published online in July 2003.     

ParBreZo: A parallel,unstructured grid,Godunov-type,shallow-water code for high-resolution flood inundation modeling at the regional scale

Topographic data are increasingly available at high resolutions (<10 m) over large spatial extents to support detailed flood inundation modeling and loss estimation analyses required for flood risk management. This paper describes ParBreZo, the parallel implementation of a two-dimensional, Godunov-type, shallow-water code, to address the computational demand of high-resolution flood modeling at the regional scale (10²–10⁴ km²). A systematic approach to unstructured grid partitioning (domain decomposition) is presented, and the Single Process Multiple Data (SPMD) paradigm of distributed-memory parallelism is implemented so the code can be executed on computer clusters with distributed memory, shared memory, or some combination of the two (now common with multi-core architectures). In a fully-wetted, load-balanced test problem, the code scales very well with a parallel efficiency of close to 100% on up to 512 processes (maximum tested). A weighted grid partitioning is used to partially address the load balancing challenge posed by partially wetted domains germane to flooding applications, where the flood extent varies over time, while the partitioning remains static. An urban dam-break flood test problem shows that weighted partitions achieve a parallel efficiency exceeding 70% using up to 48 processes. This corresponds to a 97% reduction in execution time so results are obtained in a matter of minutes, which is attractive for routine engineering analyses. A hurricane storm surge test problem shows that a 10 m resolution, 12 h inundation forecast for a 40 km length of coastline can be completed in under 2 h using 512 processors. Hence, if coupled to a hurricane forecast system capable of resolving storm surge, inundation forecasts could be made at 10 m resolution with at least a 10 h lead time.     

Upscale effects in simulations of tropical convection on an equatorial beta-plane

A cloud-resolving model is configured to span the full meridional extent of the tropical atmosphere and have sufficient zonal extent to permit the representation of tropical cloud super-clusters. This is made computationally feasible by the use of anisotropic horizontal grids where one horizontal coordinate direction has over an order of magnitude finer resolution than the other direction. Typically, the meridional direction is chosen to have the coarser resolution (40 km grid spacing) and the zonal direction has enough resolution to ‘permit’ crude convective squall line ascent (1 km grid spacing). The aim was to run in cloud-resolving model (CRM) mode yet still have sufficient meridional resolution and extent to capture the equatorial trapped waves and the Hadley circulation. The large-scale circulation is driven by imposed uniform tropospheric cooling in conjunction with a fixed sea surface temperature distribution. At quasi-equilibrium the flow is characterized by sub-tropical jetstreams, tropical squall line systems that form eastward-propagating super-clusters, tropical depressions and even hurricanes.Two scientific issues are briefly addressed by the simulations: what forces the Hadley circulation and the nature of stratospheric waves appearing in the simulation. It is found that the presence of a meridional sea surface temperature gradient is not sufficient on its own to force a realistic Hadley circulation even though convection communicates the underlying temperature gradient to the atmosphere. It is shown in a simulation that accounts for the observed time and zonal-mean momentum forcing effect of large-scale eddies (originating in middle latitudes) that the heaviest precipitation is concentrated near the equator in association with moisture flux convergence driven by the Trade winds.A spectral analysis of the stratospheric waves found on the equator using the dispersion relation for equatorially-trapped waves provides strong evidence for the existence of a domain-scale Kelvin wave together with eastward and westward propagating inertia-gravity waves. The eastward-propagating stratospheric waves appear to be part of a convectively coupled wave system travelling at about 15 ms⁻¹.     

GNSS-R观测下的海面飓风风速反演

利用全球导航卫星系统在地球表面的反射信号（GNSS-R）进行海面风速反演已经被广泛研究并作为一种重要的遥感手段。目前,该L波段微波信号的相关功率已可以在多普勒频率和时延码片空间进行多普勒时延图像的成像。由于该图像的图像特征与海面粗糙度有较高的相关性,因此能够用来进行海面风场反演。然而,对于该遥感手段而言,其双基雷达前向散射截面（BRCS）理论上与海面粗糙度有更高的相关性,如同目前合成孔径雷达使用后向雷达散射截面而非相关功率。所以,本文通过改进已有的GNSS-R的双基雷达散射截面方程,代替相关功率在多普勒时延空间进行成像,得出了与海面粗糙度相关的双基雷达散射截面图像（BRCS map）。基于该图像,本文提出了三种与其形状特征相关的观测量,通过2005年Dennis飓风GNSS-R机载数据生成的16000多幅图像进行地球物理模式函数建模并与经典的一维时延波形匹配方法得出结果进行对比分析,得出更为精确的风速反演结果。     

The effect of directionality on extreme wave design criteria

Sea state design criteria for offshore facilities are frequently provided by direction. For example, it is typical for return-period values of the significant wave height to be specified for each of eight 45° sectors in addition to the omni-directional case. However, it is important that these criteria be consistent so that the probability of exceedance of a given wave height from any direction derived from the directional values is the same as for the omni-directional value. As recently demonstrated by Forristall it is not sufficient simply to scale the directional values so that the value of the wave height from the most severe sector is the same as the omni-directional value.We develop an approach for establishing appropriate directional criteria and an associated omni-directional criterion for a specific location. The inherent directionality of sea states is used to develop a model for the directional dependence of distributions of storm maxima. The directional model is applied to the GOMOS data, and the distributional properties of the 100-year significant wave height are estimated and the implications for design discussed. An objective risk-cost approach is proposed for optimising directional criteria, while preserving overall reliability. Simulation studies are performed, using realistic extreme value assumptions, to quantify the uncertainties.