利用烈度数据点估算中强历史地震震级与震中的方法研究

本文基于地震烈度数据点,用椭圆参数方程对烈度点空间分布进行最小二乘拟合,得到各烈度区椭圆烈度估计线,然后对烈度估计线进行统计回归,得到一组适用于青、甘、川、滇4省中强地震的椭圆烈度分布模型I=f（M,R）.基于所建烈度分布模型,联立考虑中心点和方向性的椭圆数学方程,代入全部烈度数据点估算地震震级和宏观震中.本文的试算震例表明了此方法的可行性,并进行了不确定性分析.利用该方法对明清时期4次烈度点较少的中强历史地震参数进行了估算,所得结果表明了此方法对历史地震有效.     

Development of a seismic damage and loss scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece

The methodologies used in Greece for estimating direct losses in both reinforced concrete (R/C) and masonry buildings (also including monuments) are summarised, the critical issue of data collection is addressed, and practical solutions that have been tried are discussed. The development of a seismic risk scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki is then presented and some key results are given, including the expected geographical distribution of building damage (due to the scenario earthquake) in the municipality of Thessaloniki; damage is described both in structural and in economic terms.     

From paleo to policy: partitioning the historical point and nonpoint phosphorus loads to the St. Croix River,Minnesota-Wisconsin,USA

Paleolimnological studies show that phosphorus (P) loads to the federally protected St. Croix River, a tributary of the Upper Mississippi River, have increased about threefold over the last century. Ongoing management efforts to protect and restore the river hinge on the question of whether the increased nutrient load results from point-source discharges or nonpoint runoff from agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Here we determine the historical contribution of point source phosphorus (P) loads to the St. Croix watershed from 1900–2000 A.D. Historical point source loads were estimated based on discharge volumes, demographics, industrial sources, wastewater technologies, and facility discharge records, where available. Sewering in the basin began in 1905, and since that time, there have been as many as 169 permitted point source dischargers basinwide, including municipal, industrial, and agricultural facilities. Early wastewater management typically discharged untreated sewage; technological advances had secondary treatment in place at most facilities by the 1960s–1970s and much of the municipal population was served by tertiary treatment by the 1990s. Peak nutrient discharges from point sources occurred in the 1960s–1970s. Detergent phosphorus bans instituted in the late 1970s for Minnesota and Wisconsin, greater use of land and groundwater effluent disposal, and improvements in treatment technology brought about decreases in P loads in the 1980s and 1990s. Point-source discharges were compared to historical total phosphorus loads estimated in a whole-basin phosphorus mass balance to calculate the historical contribution of point sources, anthropogenic nonpoint sources, and natural or background sources. We estimated 1990s point source loads at 48 t P yr⁻¹, which represents about 10% of the total phosphorus load (459 t P yr⁻¹, flow-corrected to 412 t P yr⁻¹) to the basin. Without further controls on nutrient inputs to the St. Croix River, annual flow-corrected P loads are projected to increase to 498 t P yr⁻¹ by the 2020s with point source phosphorus loading contributions at 65 t P yr⁻¹ or 13% of the total load. However, if we exclude background P loads to the St. Croix (166 t P yr⁻¹), recent nutrient loads are primarily from anthropogenic nonpoint sources. Point sources also contribute over 19% of the current and future phosphorus load that can be attributed to human activities in the watershed. Interstate and federal efforts to decrease P loading to the St. Croix River by 20% will need to target both point and nonpoint sources. This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue.     

历史将永远铭记他们——记在叠溪大地震的考察、研究和救灾工作中作出贡献的几位前辈

考证并记叙了在1933年叠溪地震的考察、研究和救灾工作中作出过重要贡献的若干前辈的事迹,包括常隆庆、李善邦、周郁如、徐近之、庄学本、张雪岩等先生和四川大学的师生们。他们是中国地震科学和防震减灾事业的先行者,永远值得我们怀念。     

Real-time seismology for the 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China: A retrospective view

The devastating 05/12/2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w7.9) in Sichuan Province of China showed very few precursory phenomena and occurred on a fault system once assigned to be of moderate long term seismic risk. Given the existing coverage of seismograph stations in Sichuan Province, real-time seismology could have been effective in avoiding some earthquake damage and helping post-earthquake emergency response. In a retrospective view, we demonstrated that the epicenter can be located with 20 km accuracy using just two broadband stations with three-component, which takes only about 10 s after the onset of the earthquake. Initial magnitude is estimated to be M7 with the Tc measurement over first 4 seconds of P waves. Better magnitude estimate can be obtained within 2 min by modeling Pnl waves for stations about 500 km away where the S waveforms are clipped. The rupture area is well revealed by teleseismically-recorded >M5 early aftershocks within two hours after the mainshock. Within a few hours, teleseismic body waves were inverted to derive a more detailed rupture process and the finite fault model can be readily used to calculate ground motions, thus providing vital information for rescue efforts in the case where no real-time strong motion records are available. Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-116-1) and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006BAC03B00)     

Tectonics of the Laptev Sea – Moma `Rift' Region: Investigation with Seismologic Broadband Data

Based on teleseismic broadband data, mainly recorded from stationsof the Incorporated Research Institute for Seismology (IRIS) and theGräfenberg (GRF) array in Germany, the focal mechanism and thefocal depth of the largest earthquakes in northeastern Siberia in thetime interval 1976–1996 were determined. For 9 events the relativeanelastic attenuation of the shear wave with respect to the compressionalwave along the travel paths could be calculated. Using the slip vectorsfrom the best constrained focal mechanisms and additional slip vectorsfrom Jemsek et al. (1986) and Parfenov et al. (1988), we obtained the North American–Eurasian pole of rotation west of the Cherskii mountainsat 67.1^° N, 132.3^° E.The investigation shows that the extension of the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridgeinto the continental shelf acts as a continental graben structure.Actually, the crustal extension is concentrated on the eastern LaptevSea area and the seismicity of the western part of the Laptev Sea canbe explained by the assumption of a separate microplate. In the continentsoutheast of the Laptev Sea a series of northwest trending depressions,known as the Moma `Rift', are observed. Although in this region elevatedheat flow, recent volcanism and a low crustal thickness were found (i.e.Duchkov and Sokolova, 1985; Devyatkin, 1985), there is only a poorcorrelation between the seismicity and the rift valleys. So the Momastructures seem to be related to an aborted rift structure.     

Modeling vp and Q on Explosion Seismology Data in NE Tibet

MODELING v_P AND Q ON EXPLOSION SEISMOLOGY DATA IN NE TIBET