6级左右历史地震震源参数的模拟估计

本文借鉴直接拟合烈度数据点和枚举震源参数的做法,设计了一种利用烈度资料估计6级左右历史地震震源参数的方法.该方法对震源参数所有可能的组合进行枚举,采用地震波场模拟计算转换的理论烈度值,利用模型选择方法评估各可能的震源参数组合模型与历史破坏记录推断的地震烈度数据点的拟合程度,对震源参数做出估计.该方法充分考虑到历史资料相对稀少对震源参数估计的影响,以多种震源参数估计结果和相应权重值来定量化表示估计的不确定性.通过对给定震中位置、震源深度和滑动角的Bootstrap数值恢复检测与2006年美国Parkfield 6.0级地震实例的测试,表明该方法得出的震源参数估计结果具有统计一致性和一定的无偏性.将该方法应用于1882年河北深县6级地震的震源参数估计,结果显示东西向旧城北断层或何庄断层及北东东走向的深西断层为深县地震的发震构造的可能性较大.     

Cartography: Making Sense of Our Worlds

Abstract

One goal of cartographic research is to improve the usefulness of maps. To do so, we must consider the process of spatial knowledge acquisition, the role of maps in that process, and the content of cognitive representations derived. Research from psychology, geography, and other disciplines related to these issues is reviewed. This review is used to suggest potential new directions for research with particular attention to spatial problem solving and geographic instruction. A classroom experiment related to these issues is then described. The experiment highlights some of the implications that a concern for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition will have on questions and methods of cartographic research as well as on the use of maps in geographic instruction. It also provides evidence of independent but interrelated verbal and spatial components of regional images that can be altered by directed map work.     

Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.     

Historical manufacturing volatility and local sustainability efforts: A link to the past

Renewed attention to the role of subnational efforts in addressing myriad environmental challenges necessitates a greater understanding of the factors associated with program adoption. Given observed relationships between adoption of sustainability practices and the presence of carbon-intensive industry, and separately the observed persistence of industrial history in a given place, we explore the link between historical manufacturing employment volatility and current sustainability plan adoption at the local level. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of changes in manufacturing employment is inversely related to the likelihood of sustainability plan adoption. Our analysis further suggests that, given the same pace of change, counties with shrinking manufacturing employment are more likely to adopt sustainability plans than those with growing employment. Lastly, we find that the link between past industrial transitions and local sustainability commitment is moderated by local disaster experience and priority for environmental protection. Collectively, the findings also shed light on potential—and otherwise unobservable—barriers to transitions to sustainable practices at the local level. In particular, the inverse relationship between pace of employment change and plan adoption suggests that minimizing the rapidity of contemporary transitions may counterintuitively ease the eventual adoption of sustainability-related policies.     

泛亚铁路滇西大理至瑞丽沿线主要活动断裂与地震地质特征

根据最新的遥感影像解译和地表调查成果,分析总结了拟建的云南大理至瑞丽铁路沿线区域最新的地表变形特征、主要活动断裂带的几何分布与运动学特征。结果显示,影响该区地壳稳定性的活动断裂带主要有10条,从东到西包括：点苍山东麓断裂、云龙-永平断裂带、保山断裂带、蒲缥-施甸断裂、太平-罗明坝断裂、镇安断裂带、龙新共轭断裂系、黄连河共轭断裂系、龙川江断裂和畹町断裂带,其中晚第四纪期间活动性最显著、对工程场地稳定性影响最大的是：点苍山东麓断裂带、保山盆地西缘断裂带、蒲缥-施甸断裂、畹町断裂带等。同时,通过整理分析近代强震资料发现,仅根据历史强震资料所揭示的高地震烈度区是不全面的,结合最新的活动断裂调查成果,对大瑞铁路沿线区域的地震烈度分区进行重新划分后,认为大瑞铁路工程场地区从东到西至少存在：大理-弥渡、保山、蒲缥-施甸、镇安-荆竹坪和瑞丽-畹町5个大于等于区级的高地震烈度区,需要在铁路工程建设的抗震设防时给予重点关注。     

PCBs in Central Vietnam coastal lagoons: levels and trends in dynamic environments

PCBs were analysed in surficial sediments and selected sediment cores collected between 2002 and 2008 in Central Vietnam coastal lagoons. The aim was to determine contamination levels and trends, and to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic pressures and natural events. Samples were mostly fine-grained with low total PCB concentrations (0.367-44.7 μg kg⁻¹). Atmospheric transport and post depositional processes modify to some degree the fingerprint of PCB inputs to the environment favouring the predominance of 3, 4 and 5 chlorinated congeners. The similarity of congener distributions in contemporary surficial samples also suggests the presence of a unique source over the entire study area, probably connected to mobilisation and long range transports from land-based stocks. The removal of consistent sediment layers is hypothesised based on repeated samplings of the same area. Natural meteorological events (such as typhoons) are suspected to be responsible for these sediment losses.     

The 1988 Tennant Creek,northern territory,earthquakes: A synthesis

Three large earthquakes with surface‐wave magnitudes 6.3–6.7 on 22 January 1988 were associated with 32 km of surface faulting on two main scarps 30 km southwest of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory. These events provide an excellent opportunity to study the mechanics of midplate earthquakes because of the abundance of geological and geophysical data in the area, the proximity of the Warramunga seismic array and the ease of access to the fault zone. The 1988 earthquakes were located in the North Australian Craton in an area that had no history of moderate or large earthquakes before 1986. Additionally, no smaller earthquakes from the fault zone were identified at the Warramunga array, which is situated only 30 km from the nearest scarp, between the 1965 installation of the array and 1986. The main shocks were preceded by a swarm of moderatesized (magnitude 4–5) earthquakes in January 1987 and many smaller aftershocks throughout 1987. Careful relocation of all teleseismically recorded earthquakes from the fault zone shows that the 1987 activity was concentrated in an area only 6 km across in the gap between the two main fault scarps. The main shocks also nucleated in the centre of the fault zone near the 1987 activity. Field observations of scarp morphology indicate that the scarp is divided into three segments, each showing primarily reverse faulting. However, whereas the western and eastern segments show movement of the southern block over the northern, the central scarp segment shows the opposite, with the northern block thrust over the southern block.

Analysis of the first arrival times at Warramunga suggests that the three main shocks were associated with the western, central and eastern scarp segments, respectively. The locations of aftershocks determined using data from temporary seismograph arrays in the epicentral area define three inclined zones of activity that are interpreted as fault planes. In the western and eastern portions of the aftershock zone, these concentrations of activity dip to the south at 45° and 35°, respectively, but in the central section the aftershock zone dips to the north at 55°. Focal mechanisms derived from modelling broadband teleseismic data show thrust and oblique thrust faulting for the three main shocks. The first event ruptured unilaterally up and to the northwest on the westernmost fault segment, while the third main shock ruptured horizontally to the southeast. Modelling of repeat levelling data from the epicentral area requires at least three distinct fault planes, with the eastern and western planes dipping to the south and the central plane dipping to the north. The combination of scarp morphology, aftershock distribution and elevation data makes a strong case for rupture of fault planes in conjugate orientation during the 22 January 1988 Tennant Creek earthquakes. More than 20000 aftershocks have been recorded at Warramunga and activity continues to the present‐day with occasional shocks felt in the town of Tennant Creek and some recent off‐fault aftershocks located directly under the Warramunga seismic array. Stratigraphic relationships exposed in trenches excavated across the scarps suggest that during the Quaternary, a large earthquake ruptured the surface along one segment of the 1988 scarps.     

Analysis and interpretation of the October 21, 1766 earthquake in the Southeastern Caribbean

The October 21, 1766 earthquake is the most widely felt event in the seismic history of Trinidad and Venezuela. Previous works diverged on the interpretation of the historical data available for this event. They associated the earthquake either with the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, with strike-slip motion along El Pilar fault, or with intraplate deformation at the edge of Guyana shield. Isoseismal areas are proposed after a new search and analysis of primary and secondary sources of historical information. Two of the largest earthquakes of the twentieth century which occurred in the region, the 1968 (M _S 6.4, h = 103 km), and the 1997 (M _W 6.9, h = 25 km) events, for which both intensity data and instrumentally determined source parameters are available, are used to calibrate the isoseismal areas and to interpret them in terms of source depth and magnitude. It is concluded that the large extent of intensity values higher than V is diagnostic of the depth (85 ± 20 km) of the 1766 source, and of local amplifications of ground motion due to soft soil conditions and to strong contrasts of impedance at the edge of Guyana shield. It is proposed that the event occurred either in slab, or close to the bottom lithospheric interface between the Caribbean and South American plates (∼11°N; ∼62.5°W). The value of the magnitude is estimated at 6.5 < M _S < 7.5 depending on the source depth and on the decay of ground motion as a function of distance. Deep and intermediate depth earthquakes can induce important casualties in Trinidad, Venezuela, and Guyana, possibly more damaging than those induced by shallower earthquakes along the strike of El Pilar Fault.     

快速有效的转换波共转换点叠加技术

转换波共转换点(Common Conversion Point简称CCP)叠加的关键在于CCP抽道集和非双曲线正常时差校正NMO(Normal MoveOut). 目前方法的精度限制了其在中-浅层或大炮检距情况下的应用. 我们对CCP叠加技术进行了系统研究,导出了新的CCP位置计算公式和非双曲线时距关系式,并给出了具体的CCP抽道集方法. 理论模型试验和实验资料处理表明本文方法精度高、简便易行,特别是对于中-浅层和大炮检距情况也能得到良好的叠加效果.     

Seismic hazard in Takamatsu Japan from fault trenching and paleo-liquefaction studies

Takamatsu is a harbor city of 330,000 people on the northern shore of Shikoku Island, southwest Japan. Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, typically of magnitude M 8+, have been considered the primary source of seismic hazard for the island and Takamatsu. A major active fault system, the Median Tectonic Line, runs across the Shikoku from east to west near the north shore. There is no documented historical seismicity associated with this major fault system in Shikoku or with associated faults such as the 20 km Nagao Fault near Takamatsu. Therefore the trenches were cut across some of the more important faults to expose the record of past seismicity. Additional data on past seismicity is derived from paleo-liquefaction studies in the Takamatsu plain. This paper describes the trenching and paleo-seismic studies and discusses the implications of the findings for seismic hazard in Takamatsu.