喜马拉雅地区与天山地区地壳强地震的孕震因素探讨

利用哈佛大学GCMT数据中心和前人积累的历史地震资料(1962~2016年M W>4.0地震)以及Crust2.0地壳结构统计分析了喜马拉雅地区、天山地区的地壳区域构造与地震活动间的相关性。此外,利用GFZ地学研究中心提供的静态卫星重力模型GGM03S/EGM2008和地形模型Topo计算了2个地区的各类重力异常场,同时还模拟了不同地壳弹性参数下的重力异常场,结果表明喜马拉雅地区重力异常场在水平、垂直方向的梯度特征远大于天山地区的异常特征,且喜马拉雅地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(6~15km)小于天山地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(20~30km)。最后,利用喜马拉雅地区与天山地区的GPS震间三维形变场约束了断层运动模型,结果显示两者主前缘断裂的断层闭锁深度及应力积累状态存在较大的差异。因此认为,造成青藏高原及邻区的边界地壳区域地震活动性差异的动力学因素,与地壳有效弹性板厚度、孕震断层参数及区域应力积累状态等密切相关。     

滇西北地区M≥5.0地震地震学短期预报指标及其预报效能研究

在滇西北地区(25°~28°N,99°~101.5°E)用不同的统计窗长和滑动步长,对当前常用的地震学参数进行分析研究,最终确定了6个预报指标:频度N、缺震、能量E、断层总面积ΣE、空间集中度C值、地震活动度S值。这6项指标对滇西北地区及周边区域1990年发生的M≥5.0地震有较好的短期映震能力,但丽江7级地震前,6个指标只有缺震出现了明显异常,达到预报指标,其余5个指标都无异常显示。这种结果一方面说明6项指标对6级左右地震有较好的对应关系,但对6.7级以上地震没有控制能力;另一方面也说明,丽江7.0级地震最显著的特征是短期阶段孕震区中小地震活动异常平静。因此,仅仅依靠地震学指标实现短临预报是不够的,还应结合其它方法和手段。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

1954年甘肃山丹7(1/4)级地震史料补遗

在归纳1954年山丹71/4级地震已有地震史料的基础上,根据新获得的朱允明(2006)《山丹地震考察笔记》的详细考察资料,按照《新中国地震烈度表》重新评定了本次地震中各考察点的地震烈度,重新绘制了该地震的等震线图。其中,极震区Ⅸ—Ⅹ度区长轴方向为北西向,呈扁椭圆形,长轴直径约40km;Ⅷ度区南西侧为山丹盆地,第四纪沉积较厚,地震烈度衰减缓慢,因此,Ⅷ度区等震线向南明显突出。1954年山丹71/4级地震极震区位于龙首山北缘断裂西段,大致与该断裂的包代河-黑头山段相吻合,综合分析认为,该段断裂是本次地震的主发震断层,而破喇嘛顶西缘断裂和毛湖洞断裂是重要的参与断裂。     

Correlation of seismic activity and fumarole temperature at the Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in 2000

In this paper we present densely sampled fumarole temperature data, recorded continuously at a high-temperature fumarole of Mt. Merapi volcano (Indonesia). These temperature time series are correlated with continuous records of rainfall and seismic waveform data collected at the Indonesian–German multi-parameter monitoring network. The correlation analysis of fumarole temperature and precipitation data shows a clear influence of tropical rain events on fumarole temperature. In addition, there is some evidence that rainfall may influence seismicity rates, indicating interaction of meteoric water with the volcanic system. Knowledge about such interactions is important, as lava dome instabilities caused by heavy-precipitation events may result in pyroclastic flows. Apart from the strong external influences on fumarole temperature and seismicity rate, which may conceal smaller signals caused by volcanic degassing processes, the analysis of fumarole temperature and seismic data indicates a statistically significant correlation between a certain type of seismic activity and an increase in fumarole temperature. This certain type of seismic activity consists of a seismic cluster of several high-frequency transients and an ultra-long-period signal (<0.002 Hz), which are best observed using a broadband seismometer deployed at a distance of 600 m from the active lava dome. The corresponding change in fumarole temperature starts a few minutes after the ultra-long-period signal and simultaneously with the high-frequency seismic cluster. The change in fumarole temperature, an increase of 5 °C on average, resembles a smoothed step. Fifty-four occurrences of simultaneous high-frequency seismic cluster, ultra-long period signal and increase of fumarole temperature have been identified in the data set from August 2000 to January 2001. The observed signals appear to correspond to degassing processes in the summit region of Mt. Merapi.     

关于地震科学实验场的一些思考——地下云图

由中国地震局和美国国家科学基金委、地质调查局合作建立的地震预报研究实验场为中国早期地震工作的发展起到了良好的推动作用。由于种种客观原因,地震预报实验场的多数预想目标未能达成,发展受到了阻碍。最近几年,实验场重新受到重视,并更名为"地震科学实验场"。结合目前地震学发展的前沿和防震减灾事业的实际需求,本文提出增加"地下云图"作为实验场的新方向。利用高重复性、环境友好、安全性高的气枪震源,持续激发地震信号,实现对地下介质速度变化的连续监测;结合背景噪声成像获得的高分辨率3维地壳结构,构建4维(三维空间+一维时间)地下结构成像。"地下云图"可以反映地下速度和应力变化,为全国范围的地震监测预测提供新的业务手段,推动地震预测从经验预测到物理预测的转换。     

青藏高原东南缘地震活动与地壳运动所反映的块体特征及其动力来源

通过分析青藏高原东南缘活动断裂带的活动特征和GPS资料显示的现今地壳形变场,辅以历史地震及地表破裂、震源机制解类型等资料,将青藏高原东南缘地区分成了11个次级块体.其中包括了西秦岭次级块体、阿坝次级块体、龙门山次级块体、藏东次级块体、雅江次级块体,香格里拉次级块体、滇中次级块体、保山次级块体、景谷次级块体、勐腊次级块体和西盟次级块体;并利用这些次级块体内的GPS站点速率计算出了这些块体现今运动情况及各块体之间断裂的滑动速率,分析认为各次级块体均受到了一种来自其相邻块体的主要应力作用而发生了旋转,其中保山次级块体、藏东次级块体、雅江次级块体、香格里拉次级块体、滇中次级块体的旋转尤为显著;同样,相邻块体之间的边界断裂带也呈现了相应的挤压或拉张活动特征,而藏东次级块体与雅江次级块体、雅江次级块体与滇中次级块体之间的挤压最为明显.利用上述结果,本文讨论了该地区的现今地壳形变特征,认为刚性块体的挤出作用与重力滑塌作用并存于该区域内,下地壳"管道流"的拖曳作用是该地区刚性块体挤出作用和重力滑塌的主要原因, 另外缅甸板块相对于自身的逆时针旋转作用在其北部引起的拉张作用也是重要因素之一.     

加强区域数字地震台网建设推进数字地震学的应用研究

简要回顾了数字地震学诞生以来所取得的科学成果。结合我国地震观测系统大规模数字化改造的实践,着重阐述了区域数字化地震台网的观测优势,以及在台网建设目标、观测资料的充分利用和高素质人才培养方面存在的劣势和不足。还提出了对关于区域数字地震台网建设和发展过程中的指导思想、“软件”和“硬件”的关系、基础和应用研究与地震预报的关系、数字地震学的发展与高素质人才培养的关系等等问题的思考和建议。     

Lunar noise correlation,imaging and monitoring

Passive seismic techniques have revolutionarised seismology,leading for example to increased resolution in surface wave tomography,to the possibility to monitor changes in the propagation medium,and to many new processing strategies in seismic exploration.Here we review applications of the new techniques to a very particular dataset,namely data from the Apollo 17 lunar network.The special conditions of the lunar noise environment are investigated,illustrating the interplay between the properties of the noise and the ability to reconstruct Green's functions.With a dispersion analysis of reconstructed Rayleigh waves new information about the shallow shear velocity structure of the Moon are obtained.Passive image interferometry is used to study the effect of temperature changes in the subsurface on the seismic velocities providing direct observation of a dynamic process in the lunar environment.These applications highlight the potential of passive techniques for terrestrial and planetary seismology.     

Historical measurements of the Earth's magnetic field compared with remanence directions from lava flows in Italy over the last four centuries

Direct measurements of the Earth's magnetic field in Italy since 1640 a.d. have been used to check the remanence directions derived from historically dated volcanic rocks of Etna and Vesuvius. Direct measurements consist of the records of L’Aquila and Pola geomagnetic observatories, the repeat stations of the Italian Magnetic Network and the data base of the Historical Italian Geomagnetic Data Catalogue. All have been relocated to the same reference site (Viterbo — lat. 42.45°N, long. 12.03°E) in order to draw a reference secular variation (SV) curve. The direction of the Earth's field at Viterbo has also been calculated from the historical records (2000-1600) of ref. [Jackson, A., Jonkers, A.R.T., Walker, M.R., 2000. Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 358, 957-990] database. The remanence directions from Etna show a general agreement with the trend of the SV curve, although their inclination is usually lower than that from the direct measurement. The directions from Vesuvius are more scattered. Large discrepancies occur at both volcanoes and in some cases have been ascribed in the literature to poor geographic information, making it difficult to identify the flows actually emplaced during the eruptions reported in the chronicles. Closer examination shows that the great majority of the best-defined remanence directions (semi-angle of confidence α₉₅ < 2.5°) deviate significantly from the geomagnetic direction measured at the time of the emplacement, the angle between the two directions being larger than the α₉₅ value. The value of 2.5-3.0° can thus be regarded as a conservative evaluation of the error when dealing with dating Etna and Vesuvius lava flows older than 17th century, even when the accuracy attained in remanence measurements is higher. In default of a SV curve for Italy derived from archaeological artefacts, a further error in dating is introduced when reference is made to SV curves of other countries, even if well-established, as these are from regions too far from Italy (>600 km) to confidently relocate magnetic directions.