A STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR TREE‐RING RECONSTRUCTION OF HIGH‐MAGNITUDE MASS MOVEMENTS: CASE STUDY OF SNOW AVALANCHES IN EASTERN CANADA

This paper investigates the application of the peaks‐over‐threshold method in combination with fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution for estimating the frequency of high‐magnitude geomorphic events, on the basis of tree‐ring data. In particular, attention is focused on extreme value distribution of tree‐ring responses and in the minimum threshold or index number required to assure the past occurrence of high‐magnitude events. The objective is to set a threshold, adapted to the sample distribution, which will make the distinction between high‐magnitude years and remaining years, where the response of sampled trees is too weak to be attributed to a high‐magnitude geomorphic event. The statistical framework proposed is based on the statistics of extremes. Through the use of simple, strong and effective mathematics, this model should strengthen the position of dendrogeomorphology in the evaluation and management of natural hazards.     

岩溶塌陷灾害的岩溶地下水气压力监测技术及应用

文章系统、全面地介绍了岩溶地下水气压力监测技术及其应用成果。该技术在监测成孔、孔口的密封及监测频率等方面创新性地提出了相关的工艺方法,能真实、及时且充分地反映出岩溶管道裂隙系统中的地下水气压力变化特点,可为岩溶塌陷的机理研究、监测和预警提供科学依据。岩溶地下水气压力监测技术工艺简单、操作方便、成本低廉,经过20多年的改进,已成功应用于全国11个典型岩溶塌陷区,服务于高铁、水源地、油气管线、市政建设等潜在岩溶塌陷风险性评价、安全降深、监测预警等方面,取得了很好的效果。      

Using climate to relate water discharge and area in modern and ancient catchments

Models relating sediment supply to catchment properties are important in order to use the geological record to deduce landscape evolution and interplay between tectonics and climate. Water discharge (Q _w) is an important factor in the widely used ‘BQART ’ model, which relates sediment load to a set of measurable catchment parameters. Although many of the factors in this equation may be independently estimated with some degree of certainty in ancient systems, water discharge (Q _w) certainly cannot. An analysis of a world database of modern catchments with 1255 entries shows that the commonly applied equation relating catchment area (A ) to water discharge (Q _w = 0·075A^0·8) does not predict water discharge from catchment area well in many cases (R ² = 0·5 and an error spanning about three orders of magnitude). This is because the method does not incorporate the effect of arid and wet climate on river water discharge. The inclusion of climate data into such estimations is an opportunity to refine these estimates, because generalized estimates of palaeoclimate can often be deduced on the basis of sedimentological data such as palaeosol types, mineralogy and palaeohydraulics. This paper investigates how the relationship between catchment area and river discharge varies with four runoff categories (arid, semi‐arid, humid and wet), which are recognizable in the geological record, and modifies the coefficient and exponent of the above‐mentioned equation according to these classes. This modified model yields improved results in relating discharge to catchment area (R ² = 0·95 and error spanning one order of magnitude) when core, outcrop or regional palaeoclimate reconstruction data are available in non‐arid systems. Arid systems have an inherently variable water discharge, and catchment area is less important as a control due to downstream losses. The model here is sufficient for many geological applications and makes it possible to include variations in catchment humidity in mass‐flux estimates in ancient settings.     

高效液相色谱-电感耦合等离子体质谱联用检测土壤中的无机硒形态

土壤样品中亚硒酸盐Se(Ⅳ)和硒酸盐Se(Ⅵ)的形态分析中,提取剂的选择和检测方法是技术的关键。以往的提取剂容易导致硒形态发生转变或无法同时提取Se(Ⅳ)和Se(Ⅵ),常用的氢化物发生原子荧光光谱法无法直接测定Se(Ⅵ),而是通过差减法得出Se(Ⅵ)含量。本文对比了不同提取剂的提取能力,确定使用0. 1 mol/L氢氧化钠溶液作为提取剂,在55℃超声萃取土壤样品30 min,提取液经高效液相色谱分离,电感耦合等离子体质谱检测,建立了土壤中Se(Ⅳ)和Se(Ⅵ)的形态分析方法。采用Hamilton PRP X-100色谱柱,以6 mmol/L柠檬酸为流动相,pH=5. 5,在8 min内可完全分离Se(Ⅳ)和Se(Ⅵ),两者的检出限分别为0. 15μg/L、0. 16μg/L,线性相关系数(r~2)均大于0. 999。以土壤为基体进行加标回收试验,Se(Ⅳ)和Se(Ⅵ)的回收率在84. 2%～95. 8%之间,相对标准偏差为1. 4%～5. 3%(n=6)。该方法简单快速,具有良好的精密度和准确度,适用于土壤中无机硒的形态分析。     

北极斯瓦尔巴、高亚洲和阿尔卑斯山冰川物质平衡对比研究

基于冰川物质平衡和平衡线高度数据,对北极斯瓦尔巴、高亚洲和阿尔卑斯山的冰川物质平衡变化和平衡线高度空间分布特征进行了对比分析,得出以下结论：（1）阿尔卑斯山冰川年均负物质平衡值最大,为-907 mm;斯瓦尔巴为-431 mm;高亚洲最小,为-264 mm。（2）高亚洲和斯瓦尔巴冰川物质平衡年振幅较小,年际变化较小;阿尔卑斯山冰川物质平衡年振幅较大,年际变化较大。斯瓦尔巴冰川物质平衡趋向正平衡,阿尔卑斯山和高亚洲冰川物质平衡趋向负平衡。（3）斯瓦尔巴内陆的冰川平衡线高度高于沿海地区,高亚洲冰川平衡线高度呈纬向地带性、经向地带性和区域地带性的分布规律,阿尔卑斯山的冰川平衡线高度主要受冰川所处海拔的影响。     

北方集中供热系统气象风险评估初探

供热管网爆裂、跑冒滴漏是北方集中供热城市面临的常见问题,供热管网出现大型故障往往是在室外寒冷的隆冬时节,如果间断或限额供热时间过长,将会造成严重的社会和经济影响。同时在极端低温情况下,可能会造成热源供应不足,出现限额供热现象,不能保证室内舒适度,影响人们的正常生活。本文提出了能源供应气象风险评估和热网维修寒冷风险评估方法,并进行了案例评估,以期为未来进行相关风险评估提供参考。     

压力对辉长岩矿物反应和部分熔融影响的实验研究

本文在高温高压条件下,开展了辉长岩矿物反应与部分熔融实验,利用偏光显微镜与扫描电镜对实验样品微观结构观察,研究实验中的新生矿物与熔体的分布;通过电子探针分析熔体成分特征。实验结果表明,在低压(300MPa)条件下,静压和塑性变形实验样品中,单斜辉石以固体反应方式生成橄榄石,在高压(1300MPa)塑性实验中所有实验样品都没有发现新生矿物颗粒,这与相图中低压条件下斜长石与橄榄石稳定共存,而高压下斜长石-辉石稳定共存相吻合。高压塑性变形条件下,单斜辉石和黑云母首先发生部分熔融,随着温度增高,斜长石逐渐参与熔融,熔体呈薄膜状分布在矿物颗粒边界,熔体成分依赖于参与熔融的矿物成分,表明出现的熔体为非平衡熔融结果。     

辽宁赛马碱性岩体异性石化学成分特征及其蚀变组合对碱性岩浆-热液演化的指示意义

辽宁赛马碱性岩体早年因产铀矿而闻名,该岩体主要由响岩、霞石正长岩和异霞正长岩组成,其中铀、锆和稀土等元素矿化主要集中于异霞正长岩岩浆阶段。异性石是异霞正长岩中特征的锆-稀土矿物,主要分为两期,晚期异性石表现出更加富集Nb、REE等高场强元素的特点。早期异性石经历了一系列的热液蚀变,根据蚀变强弱程度,蚀变矿物组合可分为:(1)异性石+钠锆石+霓石±钠沸石;(2)异性石+钠锆石+锆石+钠沸石±霓石;(3)异性石假晶,假晶主要由残余异性石+钠锆石+锆石+钠沸石+霓石+钾长石+铈硅磷灰石组成。相比于岩浆锆石,蚀变组合中次生锆石具有富Ca、Al、Fe的特点,与异性石本身化学成分和流体性质密切相关。通过对异性石及其蚀变组合的精细矿物学研究,我们得知假晶的形成可能是异性石"溶解-再沉淀"的结果,致使假晶形成的流体至少包括:(1)占主导的富Na(±K)、Al、F的自交代流体;(2)少量晚期富Ca流体。假晶中次生锆石和铈硅磷灰石的结晶说明了Zr和REE等高场强元素的热液活动性,自交代碱性流体和富Ca流体在此过程中起到"搬运"和"提纯"的作用,这对认识碱性岩稀有、稀土成矿机制具有重要的指示意义。     

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.