1951—2015年乌鲁木齐市升温过程频数及强度气候特征

利用乌鲁木齐市气象站1951年1月1日至2015年12月31日的逐日气温资料,以日最高气温及其升温幅度为指标,整理出乌鲁木齐市近65年升温过程数据库,将升温过程分为Ⅰ级(弱)、Ⅱ级(中等强度)、Ⅲ级(较强)、Ⅳ级(强)以及Ⅴ级(极强)5个等级,分析了乌鲁木齐市各级升温过程发生频数、持续日数、过程不同时段升温幅度、过程最高气温、过程最高气温距平偏高幅度等要素气候特征。结果如下：(1)1951—2015年,乌鲁木齐市出现升温过程5677次,平均每年87.3次,其中Ⅰ级(弱)升温过程占67.8 %。升温过程发生频数的季节分布较均匀,但在春季相对较多。近65年来,年平均升温过程发生频数在7个年代际中差异不大,没有明显的线性变化趋势。(2)1951—2015年,乌鲁木齐市5677次升温过程的平均持续日数为2.14?d,其中持续1 d的过程占43.0 %。随升温过程等级由Ⅰ级到Ⅴ级提高,过程持续日数最高出现频率也从1?d过渡到3?d。升温过程持续日数在春季4、5月份最长。(3)1951—2015年,乌鲁木齐市过程升温幅度平均为5.76℃,在春季最大、秋季最小。Ⅳ级(强)以及Ⅴ级(极强)的过程升温幅度最大的月份分别是5月和3月。65年来,乌鲁木齐市升温过程的最大24h、48h和72h升温幅度平均值分别为3.72℃、6.12℃和8.23℃,最大24 h升温幅度在冬季最大、夏季最小,最大48 h和72 h升温幅度都是在春季最大、秋季最小。(4)1951—2015年,乌鲁木齐市升温过程的最高气温平均值为14.52℃,在夏季7、8月最高,在冬季各月最低,带有显著的季节背景特征。过程最大日气温距平的平均值为2.93℃。Ⅳ级(强)和Ⅴ级(极强)升温过程的日气温距平偏高幅度最大月份分别出现在1月(11.73℃)和12月(19.10℃)。     

Study of high temperature targets identification and temperature retrieval experimental model in SWIR remote sensing based Landsat8

For surface features in short-wave infrared (SWIR, 1.3–3.0 μm) in remote sensing imagery, pixel values depict the total energy including reflection and emission. For surface features at normal temperature in SWIR band, emission energy can be ignored. While for surface features at high temperature in SWIR band, emission energy is equal to or even higher than the reflection energy. So remote sensing imagery of SWIR band can be used to separate emission and reflection energy as well as to realize temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In this study, the seventh band (SWIR band) of Landsat8 OLI remote sensing imagery is used to perform the theoretical model research for temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In the meantime, it is also used with the corresponding observation experiment of synchronization satellite to check the theoretical model. The result shows that the radiant flux density for mixed pixels with high temperature targets is higher than adjacent pixels without high temperature targets. Thus, the high temperature pixels can be identified in SWIR band. The retrieval results of temperature and fractional area for high temperature targets are consistent with reality. In the study, the result illustrates that it is effective to identify high temperature targets in remote sensing imagery of SWIR band and the model is appropriate for temperature retrieval use.     

岩石中的压力影形成的实验观测研究

野外地质观察发现,在大陆地壳变质岩中可以广泛观察到围绕一个大的单晶或者硬质点的两端区域填充低粘度相物质形成的压力影。为了定量研究岩石材料中压力影的形成条件,本文利用高精度Paterson气体介质变形装置,对含有刚性球的圣卡罗橄榄石和洋中脊玄武岩(MORB)的混合物圆柱型样品进行了高温高压扭转变形试验。变形实验前样品的初始熔融均匀分布,比例为φ≈0.05,变形试件尺寸为D8.9mm×L5.5mm,内含8粒直径约1mm的刚性球。扭转变形试验温度为1473K,围压为300MPa,应变率为γ≈1×10~(-4)s~(-1),最大剪切变形为γ≈4。实验结果表明,岩石受到扭转力的作用产生变形之后,当局部剪切应变达到γ≈1时,可以在刚性球周围形成熔融富集带和熔融贫乏带,即压力影构造,围绕刚性球对称分布。由于熔融分布的不均一性,富集带熔融比例上升,最高可以达到φ_(high)=0.1~0.3,熔融贫乏带熔融比例下降,含量为φ_(low)=0.01~0.02。由于刚性球对其周围的压力分布的扰动区域大约为刚性球的尺度范围,因此,在离开刚性球一定距离后,熔融趋于均匀分布。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新特征与依据——以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例

针对冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新性问题,以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例,采用相同开采强度下地下热水位降幅异常变化的识别方法,通过2000年以来该地下热水位年际及月际降幅与开采量和上游山区年降水量之间响应变化特征研究,结果表明:(1)冀中平原辛集地区馆陶组地下热水资源具有一定的可更新能力,与上游山区年降水量变化相关,还与地下水位埋深、当年开采引起的水位降幅大小和开采疏干层位砾粗砂岩及细砂岩占比状况有关;(2)辛集地区馆陶组地下热水大规模开采,是该地下水系统获得上游区侧向流入补给的必要条件,属于开采激发型补给,更新补给的资源数量有限;(3)从2000年以来该区地下热水水位动态变化趋势来看,目前该区地下热水资源已处于超采状态,需要压采或人工回灌增大补给,否则难以可持续开发利用。     

变化环境下石羊河流域年径流频率计算

受气候变化与人类活动的影响,水文序列一致性遭到破坏,传统的频率计算方法受到挑战。针对石羊河流域8条河流年径流量序列,在基于水文变异诊断系统进行变异分析的基础上,采用条件概率分布法和混合分布法进行了变化环境下的年径流频率计算。结果表明,石羊河流域年径流量序列以向下跳跃变异为主,变异年份多集中在1960年附近;变异序列的两种分布均通过K-S检验,最优分布的拟合效率系数均大于0.97;对比由考虑变异的理论分布与不考虑变异的一致性P-III型分布确定的设计年径流量,当设计频率高于90%时,大靖河与西营河的设计年径流量值相差较大。因此,石羊河流域新建水利工程的规划设计,应适当考虑水文资料的变异特性,选择合理的频率分析方法确定设计年径流量。     

Analysis of wave groups by wave envelope-phase and the Hilbert Huang transform methods

The wave groups are studied by both conventional wave analysis methods and by the non-stationary Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) method. Full-scale wave records containing abnormal waves are used. Instantaneous quantities, such as envelope, phase and frequency, are adopted to study the wave grouping. A refined definition of wave group is proposed considering that the wave process is simultaneously amplitude and frequency modulated. The validation of the proposed definition is conducted by analysis of numerical simulation data. Group parameters are proposed based on the time-frequency distribution of energy. An attempt is made to find the relationship between the characteristics of abnormal waves and the group characteristics.     

高阶边界元方法求解规则波在三维局部渗透海床上的传播

基于线性势流理论,利用高阶边界元法研究了规则波在三维局部渗透海床上的传播。根据Darcy渗透定律推导出渗透海床的控制方程,利用渗透海床顶部和海底处法向速度和压强连续条件得到渗透海床顶部满足的边界条件。根据绕射理论,利用满足自由水面条件的格林函数建立了求解渗透海床绕射势的边界积分方程,采用高阶边界元方法求解边界积分方程进而得到自由水面的绕射势和波浪在局部渗透海床上传播过程中幅值的变化情况。通过与已发表的波浪对圆柱形暗礁的时域全绕射结果对比,证明了本文建立的频域方法计算波幅的正确性和有效性。利用这一模型研究了三维矩形渗透海床区域上波浪的传播特性,并分析了入射波波长、海床渗透特性系数等参数对波浪传播的影响。     

东山乌礁湾海滩表层沉积物粒度时空变化分析

为了进一步了解海岛岬湾海岸表层沉积物粒度的时空分布特征和形成机制,作者以福建东山岛乌礁湾为典型研究区,通过秋、春、夏3个不同季节海滩表层沉积物的采集和点位测量,综合应用激光法和筛析法进行粒度测定。结果表明,东山乌礁湾海滩表层沉积物以0.16～0.50 mm之间的中、细砂为主,并含有少量的粗砂和细砾,这与区域砂质沉积背景有关;湾内从南到北剖面沉积物粒径由粗砂到细砂逐渐变细,主要受剖面地形、局地物源、季节性风浪作用和近岸往复水动力的影响。时间变化上,各取样站位表现出沉积物粒径粗、细不同程度的多种变化趋势,以秋季为参考,整体上表现为由南到北粒级的变小、增大和稳定,这与东北、南南西季风影响下的浪、潮作用以及沿岸流系格局变化下的水动力环境有关。     

高频地波雷达海杂波背景下的船只目标检测研究进展

针对海杂波对高频地波雷达目标检测的干扰问题,分目标处于海杂波谱区之内和之外两种情况综述了海杂波背景下的目标检测方法。对于海杂波内目标检测的难题,介绍了一种基于现场海态同步观测信息的检测新思路以及初步验证结果。对国内外相关研究进展的归纳总结和新思路的提出,为提出更加有效的海杂波干扰下的目标检测方法提供了重要的参考。