Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching ‘resistance’) of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this ‘local’ management imperative is equivalent to ∼2.0-2.5 °C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.     

Impact of log-transmissivity variogram structure on groundwater flow and transport predictions

We analyze the impact of the choice of the variogram model adopted to characterize the spatial variability of natural log-transmissivity on the evaluation of leading (statistical) moments of hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times and trajectories within mildly (randomly) heterogeneous two-dimensional porous systems. The study is motivated by the fact that in several practical situations the differences between various variogram types and a typical noisy sample variogram are small enough to suggest that one would often have a hard time deciding which of the tested models provides the best fit. Likewise, choosing amongst a set of seemingly likely variogram models estimated by means of geostatistical inverse models of flow equations can be difficult due to lack of sensitivity of available model discrimination criteria. We tackle the problem within the framework of numerical Monte Carlo simulations for mean uniform and radial flow scenarios. The effect of three commonly used isotropic variogram models, i.e., Gaussian, Exponential and Spherical, is analyzed. Our analysis clearly shows that (ensemble) mean values of the quantities of interest are not considerably influenced by the variogram shape for the range of parameters examined. Contrariwise, prediction variances of the quantities examined are significantly affected by the choice of the variogram model of the log-transmissivity field. The spatial distribution of the largest/lowest values of the relative differences observed amongst the tested models depends on a combination of variogram shape and parameters and relative distance from internal sources and the outer domain boundary. Our findings suggest the need of developing robust techniques to discriminate amongst a set of seemingly equally likely alternative variogram models in order to provide reliable uncertainty estimates of state variables.     

白洋淀水陆下垫面上行星边界层空间变动研究

利用三维非静力中尺度模式ARPS,对白洋淀地区水陆非均匀下垫面上大气边界层结构及其变动进行了模拟研究.结果表明,晴天弱背景下,白洋淀地区陆地大气比湿高于水域的情况发生在白天大部分时间内,是普遍存在的一种现象,该现象首先出现在近地层,然后不断向高空延伸,与水陆两种不同的下垫面特征密切相关.由于水陆下垫面的差异,导致水域感热和潜热通量全天较小,变化平稳,而陆地日间感热和潜热通量较大,且潜热高于感热.水陆两地近地层湍流运动状态存在较大差异,湍流输送在水陆比湿空间变动过程中起决定性作用.形成的局地环流同样影响着水陆比湿的空间变动,主要表现在环流上下支对近地层湍流发展以及水汽的垂直输送的影响.陆地上空水汽主要来源于土壤植被的蒸发蒸腾,而来自水域的仅占很少一部分.     

Pre- and post-1998 ENSO records of shallow-water octocorals (Alcyonacea) in the Chagos Archipelago

When compared, principal octocorals collected in the Chagos Archipelago before and after the 1998 ENSO shared many common taxa. While a few discontinuities in their biodiversity revealed subtle changes in more persistent genera (Lobophytum, Sarcophyton), some fast-growing “fugitive” genera (e.g. Cespitularia, Efflatounaria, Heteroxenia) disappeared after the ENSO-related coral bleaching. Such transient fugitives might thus be eliminated from soft coral communities on isolated reef systems, possibly in the long term, by events of this nature. The appearance of Carijoa riseii, a species often considered a fouling organism, even an invasive, may well be indicative of reef degradation during the ENSO event. The post-ENSO recovery manifested by this fauna nevertheless gives cause for hope for their survival in the face of climate change.     

Comparison of paired quartz OSL and feldspar post-IR IRSL dose distributions in poorly bleached fluvial sediments from South Africa

A comparative study using quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (post-IR IRSL) was undertaken on Quaternary fluvial sediments from an unnamed tributary of the Moopetsi River in South Africa. The aim is to assess whether the post-IR IRSL signal can be used to date incompletely bleached sediments. Several post-IR IRSL signals using varying stimulation and preheat temperatures were investigated; of these the post-IR IRSL₂₂₅ signal was deemed most appropriate for dating because it bleached most rapidly. The feldspar post-IR IRSL₂₂₅ equivalent dose (D_e) values from this site are consistently larger than those from quartz OSL, probably due to differences in the bleaching characteristics of the two signals. Additionally, the post-IR IRSL₂₂₅ D_e values within a sample showed less variation in precision than the quartz D_e data, possibly due to greater averaging between grains in the feldspar small aliquots. The agreement between ages based on the OSL and post-IR IRSL₂₂₅ signals was better for younger samples (<20 ka) than for older ones (>50 ka); the cause of this variation is unclear.     

二次光化学氧化剂与气溶胶间的非均相过程

光氧化剂和气溶胶颗粒物在大气环境中普遍存在,影响着大气氧化能力和气候,威胁着人类健康。而大气光氧化剂与气溶胶颗粒物间复杂的耦合相互作用能产生二次污染物,使得大气污染过程更为复杂,成为国际大气化学研究的前沿和热点课题。挥发性有机物（VOCs）和氮氧化物（NOx）等一次污染物在大气中经过复杂的光化学反应可形成以臭氧（O3）为主的二次光化学氧化剂,并以大气气溶胶为平台发生非均相反应,使大气污染更严重,引起人们普遍关注。二次光化学氧化剂和气溶胶颗粒物之间非均相过程的实验室研究是深入认识这两者间耦合相互作用的关键,实验室研究可以为分析和深入认识外场观测结果提供基础,还能为数值模式模拟研究提供基本参数。概括了大气二次光化学氧化剂的形成过程,总结了国际上近年来二次光化学氧化剂与大气气溶胶颗粒物非均相反应的实验室研究进展以及研究方法,最后提出了现有的一些主要科学问题,对未来这一重要领域的研究前景进行了展望。     

碘代异丙烷在黑碳表面的吸附研究

黑碳气溶胶由于其对大气辐射平衡和气候的影响而受到高度重视,碘化学则是大气化学中十分重要的研究领域。然而对于卤素化合物尤其含碘化合物与黑碳气溶胶表面相互作用的研究还少有报道。文中首次研究了在298K下,碘氧自由基(IO)重要源之一的碘代异丙烷(i-C3H7I)在黑碳表面的吸附,黑碳样品使用DegussaFW2(一种含有氧化态的无定形黑碳)。实验发现碘代异丙烷与黑碳表面发生相互作用,使黑碳表面逐渐被钝化,并且其吸附系数(γ)与暴露时间相关。实验测得初始吸附系数(γ0)值为(9.5±3.8)×10-2。所报道的初始吸附系数γ0可以提供一个上限值,实验结果表明在真实大气环境下,i-C3H7I在黑碳气溶胶表面的非均相消耗可能是十分重要的,也许会对i-C3H7I在真实大气中的浓度有一定影响。并且研究结果对进一步研究i-C3H7I与黑碳气溶胶相互作用对大气辐射平衡、黑碳气溶胶非均相化学作用和云雾降水凝结核(CCN)形成的影响均有十分重要的意义,研究结果也为评估i-C3H7I与碳质气溶胶非均相相互作用对大气环境的影响和深入的模式研究提供了基本参数。     

河西地区非均匀下垫面的大气变性过程

利用ＨＥＩＦＥ野外观测资料，分析了河西地区黑河流域夏半年下面动力和热力特性的不均匀 ；并以个别具有一定代表性的晴天观测资料为例，客观地分析了绿洲与沙漠或戈壁下垫面突变所产生的近地层大气变性过程；初步解释发绿洲近地层逆温和沙漠或戈壁近地层逆湿的形成机制，同时也讨论了绿洲和沙的水汽输送过程。     

用于非均匀地表通量估计的一种积分算子

在文献[1]的基础上,将Giorgi(1996)提出的通量计算方案进一步推广为非对称分布的简化形式,求得非均匀地表区域平均通量。以土壤水分饱和度为例,求解出土壤水分通量区域值的数学解析解形式,用随机仿真数据和实测资料对该方案进行数值模拟试验,验证其适用性。     

从湍流经典理论到大气湍流非平衡态热力学理论

湍流是日常生活中一种普遍的自然现象,也是经典物理学仍未完全解决的难题。湍流更是大气运动的最基本特征。本文系统地回顾了大气湍流经典理论发展简史,进一步详细介绍了大气湍流非平衡态热力学理论。大气湍流非平衡态热力学理论在熵平衡方程中引入动力过程,进而统一推导出大气湍流输送的Fourier定律、Flick定律和Newton定律,证明了Dufour效应、Soret效应、可逆动力过程与热力不可逆湍流输送过程之间的交叉耦合效应,以及湍流强度定理。这些定律和定理中得到了观测的事实验证,同时它们的唯象系数也由观测资料所确定。湍流强度定理揭示,湍流发展的宏观原因是速度和温度的剪切效应,Reynolds湍流和Rayleigh-Bénard湍流共存于大气湍流中。热力过程和动力过程间耦合效应现象的发现突破了传统湍流输送理论,即Fourier定律、Flick定律和Newton定律的观点——一个宏观量的输送通量等价于这个宏观量的梯度湍流输送通量。热力和动力过程间的耦合原理认为,一个宏观量的输送通量包括这个量的梯度湍流输送通量和速度耦合输送通量两部分。因此,能量和物质的垂直输送通量除了相应物理量梯度造成的湍流输送外,还应包括垂直速度耦合效应,即辐散或辐合运动造成的耦合效应。在一个很宽的尺度范围内,地表面的空间特征是非均匀的。下垫面非均匀性造成的对流运动将引起大气的辐散或辐合运动。这可能是导致地表能量收支不平衡的重要原因之一。垂直速度对垂直湍流输送的交叉耦合效应为非均匀下垫面大气边界层理论的发展,并为克服地表能量收支不平衡问题及非均匀下垫面大气边界层参数化遇到的困难提供了可能的线索。