“一带一路”沿线国家投资悖论的形成机理研究

投资与贸易合作是“一带一路”倡议实施的重点。投资者往往会选择低风险且具有高收益潜力的国家或地区进行高投资,然而中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资却存在高风险与高投资并存的投资悖论现象。本文遴选2013—2018年“一带一路”沿线吸纳中国对外直接投资金额较高且存在较高投资风险的国家,解析这些国家的时空特点,探究投资悖论的形成机理。研究发现：（1）从空间视角看,投资悖论国家大多数为中国的周边邻国。从“一带一路”的空间走向看,海上丝绸之路沿线国家分布较多;从分布密度看,东南亚地区是投资悖论国家分布的集中区。（2）从时间视角看,高风险高投资在时间上具有延续性,6年间有13个国家出现两次以上的投资悖论现象。按投资悖论出现的频次,将“一带一路”沿线国家分为高频国家、中频国家和低频国家。（3）从形成机理看,地缘区位、能源资源、地缘政治、地缘经济和人文社会这五个因素分别从不同的方面作用于投资悖论的产生。     

Radon variations at arrowhead and murrieta springs: Continuous and discrete measurements

Two continuous radon monitors (CRMs) have been deployed at Arrowhead Hot Springs along the San Andreas fault near San Bernardino and at Murrieta Hot Springs along the Elsinore fault. The recorded hourly and daily radon variations during 1983 are within ±5% of the mean values. The radon levels increased, however, by about 10–20% above their normal baseline levels in midyear. Several small-magnitude earthquakes (M=3.0–3.5) occurred within 20 km of the Arrowhead site near the end of the period of the radon increase.Discrete radon and helium monitoring at Arrowhead Springs since 1974 has recorded one definite precursory anomaly: a shapr increase of radon and helium (and also other dissolved gases) in 1979 by as much as 60% above their baseline levels. This anomaly was followed by the nearby Big Bear earthquake swarm (main shock,M=4.8) 45 days later. A similar increase was recorded during the first half of 1983, and it was followed by several small earthquakes (M=3.0–3.5) within 20 km of the Arrowhead site. In both cases radon and helium increased proportionally, indicating mixing between the deep-source water and the surface water at variable proportions.Comparison of radon values in gas and in liquid phases indicates that radon is not in equilibrium between the two phases but is distributed preferentially in the gas phase by a factor of 20 to 25. (Only about 5% or less of groundwater radon is in the dissolved phase.) At both sites the dissolved radon is much lower than that expected from solubility.     

氦光泵磁力仪探头设计和环路数字化研究

磁法勘探是一种常用的地球物理勘探方法,其中光泵磁力仪是国内外应用于航空和地面磁法测量最多的磁力仪器.为满足深部矿产资源勘查对高精度磁测设备的需求,本文开展了低噪声、宽量程的高性能数字氦光泵磁力仪关键技术研究,主要包括磁传感器探头优化设计和新型数字化环路设计两方面.首先通过深入分析影响氦光泵磁力仪灵敏度的主要决定因素,对磁传感器关键部件氦灯、氦室进行小型化技术研究,解决高性能氦泵源和原子气室等关键件的制作工艺,提高氦灯效率和氦吸收室的磁共振信号输出强度,制作出高性能、低噪声的小型化氦光泵探头.然后,针对常规模拟跟踪环路的局限性,通过数字化技术研究,采用FPGA、DSP、DDS、环路跟踪算法和信号处理软件等技术构成新型数字环路,弥补现有基于模拟跟踪环路技术的模拟式氦光泵磁力仪的不足,该数字环路降低了氦光泵磁力仪的电路噪声,增强了抗电磁干扰能力,并扩展了磁力仪的量程.本文通过小型探头和数字环路的技术设计,研制出高精度大量程的地面数字氦光泵磁力仪,并用于第三方测试.通过第三方测试证明：实测仪器的静态噪声小于4 pT,磁场测量范围为20000~100000 nT,梯度容限大于10000 nT/m.

     

金沙江-红河断裂带温泉气体地球化学特征

金沙江-红河断裂带是青藏高原东南缘地热活动强烈、地震活动水平高、各种矿产丰富的深大断裂带。为了探索该断裂带的温泉气体地球化学时空变化特征,2015年3月～2019年7月,经过5次野外考察,采集了54个温泉逸出气体样品,对其化学组分和氦、氖与碳的同位素变化的测试结果表明:(1)金沙江-红河断裂带内温泉气体氦同位素比值(3He/4He)变化范围是0.04～0.62Ra(Ra=空气3He/4He=1.39×10-6),计算获得的幔源氦最大比例达到7.5%,揭示该断裂带内的地质流体主要来自于壳源,幔源氦有从北向南呈现增加的趋势。以CO2为主要组分的温泉,其δ13CCO2值变化范围是-23.6‰～-1.9‰(vs. PDB)。结合区域地质条件分析,这些CO2主要来自三叠系灰岩,所占比例范围是70.1%～89.7%,而幔源CO2的比例最高可以达到4.2%。(2)金沙江-红河断裂带温泉气体的氢气浓度和氦同位素在三处断裂交汇区都出现高峰值,分别是金沙江断裂与巴塘断裂、中甸断裂与红河断裂、红河断裂与小江断裂和奠边府断裂的交汇处。与区域地震活动性的对比分析结果表明,金沙江-红河断裂带内深部流体上涌相对强烈的区域,深部流体对区域地震活动性具有重要的控制作用。     

On the reconstruction of upwelling history: Namibia upwelling in context

Eastern boundary upwelling is an important aspect of the modern ocean, despite the relatively small area involved. Consequences of increased upwelling during the Neogene, as a result of intensifying trade winds, include increased heat transport by the ocean, increased mixing, increased fractionation of phosphate from silicate, and opportunities for evolution of new species. Coastal upwelling has been studied since the first decade of the 20th century. The processes involved are complex, and differ depending on geographic setting. Off Namibia, upwelling history has been studied by a number of drilling expeditions; the last of these was ODP Leg 175, which occupied seven sites on the continental slope between Walvis Ridge and Cape Town, during September and October of 1997. Productivity proxies all along southwestern Africa suggest the presence of increased upwelling and organic matter supply to the sea floor during glacial periods. At the same time, there is a decrease in the supply of diatoms and other siliceous plankton remains. This is the Walvis Opal Paradox, established through the contrasting results of studies by Diester-Haass (1985) and Oberhänsli (1991). We propose that the Walvis Opal Paradox is fundamental to the understanding of glacial–interglacial productivity fluctuations on a global scale. Furthermore, a central feature of the history of late Neogene upwelling off Namibia is the Matuyama Opal Maximum, centered between Gauss and Olduvai magnetic chrons [Wefer et al., Proc. ODP 175 (1998)]. It is due to the fact that diatom supply first increases (during the Gauss) when the planet cools and then decreases again during additional cooling, on entering the Quaternary. On a 400 000-year scale, peak productions are coincident with (or slightly lag) maximum seasonal contrast potential in the high-latitude insolation curve. We suggest that this is further evidence that the nutrient content of thermocline waters was diminished during glacial periods. The reasons why this should be so remain to be discovered.     

土壤气中He、Ar组分在金家地区油气化探中应用研究

对济阳凹陷南缘与鲁西隆起接合部开展了土壤气He、Ar组分及Ar同位素测定,结果表明He的丰度从5.1-6μL/L(S.T.P),δHe值从-4%-16%,平均2.59%;⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar比值从255-325,δ(⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar)值从+11%-11%,He异常主要分布在研究区北部,而Ar等值图分布比较复杂。He、Ar、烃三组分之间的组合关系表明有3个远景区,最有意义的是中深层远景区。此外,根据地质分析及Ar同位素特征表明中深层异常远景区不仅是与已知的第三系油田有关,而且还与深部C-P煤系地层有关,故属煤成气异常。     

Identification of He sources and estimation of He ages in groundwater of the North China Plain

Dissolved helium concentrations and ³He/⁴He ratios were measured for 18 groundwater samples collected from the Quaternary confined aquifers in the North China Plain (NCP). The dissolved helium concentrations ranged from 1 × 10⁻⁷ to 1 × 10⁻⁶ cm³STP·g⁻¹ in the 14 samples from the central plain, but was approximately two orders of magnitude higher, between 6 × 10⁻⁶ and 9 × 10⁻⁵ cm³STP·g⁻¹, in 4 samples from the coastal plain. Based on these concentrations and the corresponding ³He/⁴He ratios varying from 0.09 to 0.55 R_a (where R_a is the ³He/⁴He ratio of air), the dissolved helium in groundwater in the central plain was identified to be primarily a mixture of atmospheric helium with radiogenic helium and a representative radiogenic helium ratio was estimated to be 0.035 R_a. Despite the high fraction of terrigenic ⁴He in the samples from the coastal plain, their ³He/⁴He ratios were found to be significantly above this radiogenic value, ranging between 0.20 and 0.37 R_a, indicating the presence of a mantle-derived He component in this area. About 2–4% mantle helium was estimated to be present in the groundwater of the coastal plain, which probably is associated with the regional Cangdong fault and tectonic activities. Based on the radiogenic He component, ⁴He ages of the groundwater in the central plain were calculated by assuming either pure in situ production or an external helium flux J₀ of 4.7 × 10⁻⁸ cm³STPcm⁻²a⁻¹. The estimated ⁴He ages fall between 9.5 and 51.4 ka and are comparable to the ¹⁴C ages, suggesting that the results of ⁴He dating are reasonable and can be an effective tool to estimate groundwater residence times under suitable conditions.     

全球化背景下产业区位形成悖论的理论阐释及其实践意义

产业区位问题一直是区域经济学、经济地理学和产业组织学等学科的重要研究内容.在全球化的浪潮中,跨国公司产业区位的形成出现在两种截然相反的过程,即在全球尺度上区位选择的分散性和区域尺度上区位选择的集聚性,并且本地产业也出现了许多不确定性集聚,形成了传统的区位理论无法解释的悖论.作者运用产业区位形成的要素变化理论、价值链和全球产业链理论以及全球化下的本地化理论来解释这种现象,试图为现代产业区位的选择提供理论基础.在此基础上,文章提出了对发展中国家的几点启示.     

A social–ecological systems analysis of impediments to delivery of the Aichi 2020 Targets and potentially more effective pathways to the conservation of biodiversity

The Aichi 2020 Targets, under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), aim to halt the loss of biodiversity by 2020, in order to ensure that ecosystems continue to provide essential services. Here we apply a social–ecological systems analysis to provide insight into the diverse system interactions that pose impediments to delivery of the Aichi Targets. We applied an analytical framework of pair-wise exchanges along six axes between the social, economic, environmental and political loci of the global social–ecological system. The analysis identified that many impediments result from partial decoupling in the system through phenomena including delayed feedbacks and insufficient information flows. It suggests 15 of the Aichi Targets are unlikely to be delivered; 3 are likely to be delivered in part; and 2 in full. We considered how interventions at leverage points may overcome the impediments, and compared these to actions included within the Implementation Decision for the Aichi Targets, to find gaps. These new leverage points to fill identified gaps involve many aspects of system re-coupling: co-production of knowledge and more equitable food systems governance (environmental–social axis); support for social change movements (social–political axis); an appropriate financial target for biodiversity conservation investment, with a clear means of implementation such as a currency transaction tax (economic–political axis); and co-governance of natural resources (environmental–political axis). The recently released Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 shows that 18 of the 20 Aichi Targets are tracking in accordance with our analysis; and that current efforts are unlikely to result in an improvement in the base state of biodiversity by 2020, confirming some of our results. We argue that attention to the interactions within, and the partial decoupling of, the global social–ecological system provides new insights, and is worthy of further attention both for delivery of the Aichi Targets and for guiding longer term actions for the conservation of biodiversity.     

长江流域潜在蒸发量和实际蒸发量的关系

针对“蒸发悖论”科学问题,从长江流域实际蒸发量变化的原因着手,探讨实际蒸发量与潜在蒸发量之间的关系。研究结果表明：一般情况下当干燥度指数R<0.8时,实际蒸发量与潜在蒸发量为明显的正相反关系,当0.81.0时,实际蒸发量与潜在蒸发量为明显的互补关系。