多普勒天气雷达风场产品在螺旋度计算中的应用

本文介绍了一种利用新一代天气雷达风场产品VWP计算螺旋度的方法,通过对两次大面积降水个例的螺旋度诊断分析发现,利用VWP风场产品计算的螺旋度具有较高的时间分辨率,大面积降水的螺旋度变化趋势与降水变化趋势比较吻合,螺旋度变化一般提前于降水变化,有2—3 h的提前预报量;螺旋度数值的大小与降水量的大小一般没有明显线性关系;螺旋度可以作为观测雷达站上空风场随高度变化的一个敏感因子;利用VWP风场产品来作为计算螺旋度的风场资料是可行的,比起其它风场资料更适于短时(临近)预报的业务化工作。     

对流性强风暴系统的螺旋度动力学研究

利用风暴尺度的数值模式ＡＲＰＳ成功地模拟了１９７７年５月２０日在美国Ｏｋｌａｈｏｍａ州Ｄｅｌ Ｃｉｔｙ的一次强对流风暴过程。其模拟结果与实际的观测非常接近，模式积分 ４０分钟，初始对流单体发生了分裂，产生了新的对流单体。原有对流单体在原地维持成熟的结构，表现出较强的稳定性，而分裂出的新单体在移动过程中，逐渐向成熟位相发展，并且又分裂出新的单体。利用模拟结果，着重讨论了风暴发展过程中螺旋度和超螺旋度的空间结构和时间演变特征，以及在强风暴系统的对流发展过程中的动力学作用。初始环境场的螺旋性结构有利于风暴的发展。在风暴发展阶段，低螺旋度有利于大尺度向对流尺度的能量串级，而在风暴成熟阶段，高螺旋度则有利于对流单体的能量维持，从而形成长生命周期的对流系统。在风暴的发展过程中，风暴流场结构具有向Ｂｅｌｔｒａｍｉ流结构的调整趋势，螺旋度向高值发展。超螺旋度在流体粘性作用的影响下，可反映出螺旋度密度空间积分的时间变化趋势，负的超螺旋度可使螺旋度增加。在对流风暴发展阶段，超螺旋度为负值，对流单体的结构螺旋性增强、螺旋度的增大，在风暴到达成熟阶段后，超螺旋度转为正值。因此，超螺旋度可用来标志对流风暴系统的成熟程度。     

我国螺旋度的研究及应用

对自20世纪90年代以来至今国内关于螺旋度理论及应用研究工作进行了较系统地总结,将螺旋度归类为垂直螺旋度、水平螺旋度及完全螺旋度,同时又将垂直螺旋度划分为局地垂直螺旋度和积分垂直螺旋度,详细介绍并给出了每一类螺旋度的计算表达式以及其在天气诊断分析中的应用状况,对螺旋度的应用研究现状进行了简单地分析与讨论,最后展望了未来螺旋度研究与应用的发展方向。     

一次东风波及其诱生低涡发生发展的诊断和数值试验

利用NCEP 1x1再分析资料诊断2001年8月3~4日发生在浙南闽北的东风波及其诱生中尺度低涡的暴雨过程。根据螺旋度(Helicity)分析了过程中的暴雨演变以及雁荡山脉[1]诱生中尺度低涡发生发展的原因。同时,利用中尺度有限区域模式MM5V2对该东风波诱生中尺度低涡进行模拟。结果表明:螺旋度大值中心和锋区的强度和位置的演变较好反映了暴雨落区和中尺度低涡的诱生、移动。螺旋度的时空演变对暴雨发生有很好的预示意义,高、低层螺旋度的低层正值辐合与高层负值辐散的配置是引起降水的重要机制;螺旋度计算较中尺度模式诱生低涡的初生位置、路径预报准确率高,两者集成可以提高诱生低涡的预报准确率。     

Tide-induced head fluctuations in coastal aquifers of variable thickness

In this work, a new analytical solution to describe tide-induced head fluctuations in aquifers of variable thickness is presented. The proposed model assumes a finite and confined aquifer with a thickness that increases or decreases quadratically with the distance to the coast. A closed-form analytical solution is obtained by solving a boundary-value problem with both a separation of variables method and a change of variables method. This solution is a generalization of the solution obtained by Cuello et al., Hydrogeological Journal, 2017, 25, 1509–1515. The analytical solution is expressed in terms of the wedging parameter, a parameter that depends on the length and thicknesses at the coast and at the inland edge of the aquifer. Positive values of the wedging parameter describe aquifers with increasing thickness towards land and negative values describe aquifers with a decreasing thickness in the inland direction. The comparison of the new solution and the solution for a finite aquifer with constant thickness indicates that the sign of the wedging parameter enhances or decreases the amplitude of the tide-induced signal. However, the differences in time-lag between both solutions are negligible near the coast. The slope factor, which quantifies the inconsistencies between aquifer diffusivities estimated from attenuation and time-lag data, is computed and analysed. Near the coast, slope factor values greater than one are obtained for negative wedging parameters while slope factor values less than one are obtained for positive wedging parameters. The analysis of the new solution also indicates that more reliable estimates of the hydraulic diffusivity can be obtained from time-lag data.     

Characterization of an island aquifer from tidal response

Growing demand for potable water for various needs has lead to indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater resources, particularly, in the terrain where surface water resources are negligible. One such area is an island where groundwater is the only source of fresh water. Groundwater is the prime source of fresh water on most of the atolls in the world. Groundwater on these islands is in the form of thin fragile floating lens and is often vulnerable to overexploitation, draught, tidal waves, tsunami and cyclone resulting in seawater ingress. Sustainable development of this meager source of fresh groundwater for a longer time becomes a more difficult task on small atolls with a large population depending on this vital resource. To develop a sustainable management scheme and identify the vulnerable part of aquifer, characterization of the aquifer system on islands is imperative. Groundwater on an atoll is extremely vulnerable to seawater mixing through natural as well as human activities. One such natural process is the tides of the ocean. The response of sea tide to the water table on the island offers valuable data as well as cost-effective means to characterize an aquifer system. Such characterization is vital for the management of groundwater resources on an atoll. The obtained results have compared well with the parameters obtained through a conventional pumping test. Therefore, the use of tidal response to the water table, which can easily be recorded, provides a rapid and cost-effective means to characterization of the aquifer system on the island.     

Decade fluctuations in the rotation rate of the earth in the last 200 years

Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis of the 200 year series (1781–1980) of the change in L.O.D. (Length of Day) revealed significant peaks atT=21, 32, 50, 63 and possibly 120 years. The periodsT=22 and 44 years seem to be stable over 200 years.     

Temporal changes of accretion rates on an estuarine salt marsh during the late Holocene — Reflection of local sea level changes? The Wadden Sea, Denmark

The temporal variability of estuarine sedimentation has been investigated in the northernmost part of the Wadden Sea (Denmark), using an estuarine sedimentary sequence at Ho Havn. The sedimentary sequence appears to have been deposited within the last ∼ 2000 yr based on detailed luminescence dating of the estuarine mud, whose ages range between 225 ± 40 and 2050 ± 300 yr. The age-depth profile reveals that the sedimentation rate has varied considerably in the past. Estuarine sedimentation was very rapid ∼ 1400 yr ago; the ages over almost 1 m of sediment are indistinguishable. After this accretion rate of ∼ 9 mm a^− 1, the rate dropped abruptly to ∼ 0.3 mm a^− 1 some time between 1340 and 970 yr ago. This slow rate of accretion continued until ∼ 350 yr ago, when it accelerated to ∼ 1.3 mm a^− 1. These abrupt changes in the accretion rate are possibly related to local sea level fluctuations, thus the period with low accretion rate most probably reflects a situation with a stable or decreasing relative sea level. The rapid deposition of ∼ 0.9 m of sediment within about one century some 1400 yr ago shows that large amounts of fine-grained sediment were available for deposition in the region at that time, and an increasing relative sea level was most probably responsible for the creation of the accommodation space for sedimentation. Recent studies on mudflats and salt marshes in the region also tend to show high accretion rates, indicating that the coastal lagoons could be less vulnerable and threatened by a future sea level rise than generally believed.